In the past week (October 21-27), the domestic PA66 market has maintained a horizontal and volatile pattern, with mainstream ex factory quotes remaining basically unchanged. The average spreads on the 5th, 10th, and 20th have all returned to zero, with no clear long short signals. The market volatility is minimal, and trading is light, mainly consisting of long order deliveries and sporadic rigid demand transactions.
cost analysis
The prices of upstream adiponitrile and hexamethylenediamine remained stable this week, without significant fluctuations. The cost side formed a bottom support, but the upward momentum was insufficient. At the current slicing price, the industry’s production profit margin is limited, and the cost side does not have the conditions to drive prices to continue rising. The risk of unilateral fluctuations in raw materials has not yet emerged.
Supply and demand analysis
In terms of supply, the mainstream PA66 production facilities in China have maintained a moderate level of operation, and the supply of sliced goods is sufficient, but the pressure of circulating inventory still exists; At the same time, the newly-built production capacity of 80000 tons of PA66 in Suizibo is approaching production, and the expected increase in supply continues to suppress the market’s upward space. Major factories have a strong willingness to stabilize prices, but there is insufficient motivation to actively raise prices. The demand side is clearly differentiated, with relatively stable orders for high-end industrial fibers such as airbag filaments and tire curtain fabrics, forming a certain level of support; The follow-up of downstream orders for modified injection molding and ordinary nylon textile is weak, and end enterprises are cautious about high-level raw materials, generally insisting on on-demand procurement and small order replenishment according to demand, lacking centralized replenishment drive.
Short term forecast for the future market
Short term PA66 is likely to continue its high volatility trend, with a 60 day cycle price at a high level and limited upward potential; The one-year cycle is at a medium low level, with long-term upward potential, but limited impact on short-term market conditions. If there is no significant increase in upstream raw materials or concentrated replenishment of downstream inventory, the unilateral upward trend is difficult to realize. It is necessary to focus on tracking the pace of new production capacity deployment and changes in downstream auto parts and industrial silk orders.
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