Market trend
The PA6 spot market has shown an accelerated upward trend in the past week (September 2-8). On September 2nd, the price of PA6 was reported at 13466.67 yuan/ton, and as of September 8th, it has risen to 14500.00 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 7.67% during the week. From the perspective of cycle position, the 60 day cycle price is in the high range; The prices of the 3-month and 1-year cycles are both in the high range, and the moving average model sends a clear upward signal. However, the price position of the multi cycle is already at a high level, and there is limited room for further upward movement. In the medium and long term, we need to be vigilant about the risk of a pullback.
influencing factors
Cost end
The upstream pure benzene price remained high, driving up the production cost of caprolactam. In the first week of September, Sinopec raised the weekly closing price of caprolactam by 230 yuan/ton to 13150 yuan/ton. The spot price of liquid caprolactam in East China also increased, and the support for PA6 raw material costs significantly strengthened. The rising cost of raw material procurement for aggregation enterprises has forced the slicing quotation to increase, and cost has become the core driving force behind the rise of PA6 in this round. However, there are expectations of resuming production in the later stage of the caprolactam unit, and the foundation for the continuous surge in raw material prices is insufficient.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, some PA6 polymerization units in China are under maintenance, and the overall operating level of the industry is moderate, with limited market spot growth; After initial consumption, the inventory of factories and traders is relatively low, and the reluctance of holders to sell is increasing. The willingness to ship at low prices is weakening, and the tight supply of goods is driving up spot prices.
On the demand side, downstream spinning and modification industries are expected to experience the peak season of the Golden September. Some downstream enterprises are concerned about the continued rise in raw materials and have carried out preventive replenishment, resulting in a rebound in inquiries and transactions; However, there has not been an explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream factories have shown resistance to high-level slicing. Most companies still insist on purchasing on demand, with weak willingness to hoard goods on a large scale, and limited follow-up efforts on transactions under high prices. Driven by costs during the week, some downstream and trading companies restocked in small quantities, but the overall transaction quality was average.
Future forecast
The PA6 market is expected to maintain a strong and volatile pattern in the short term in the future. The high level of upstream caprolactam provides cost support, coupled with the expectation of replenishing inventory during the peak season of Jinjiu, there is still some upward momentum in prices. However, in the short term, the price has already reached a high level at most, and downstream terminals have limited ability to take on the market. After a rapid rise, there is profit taking pressure in the market, and it is difficult to sustain a significant upward trend. Therefore, it is necessary to be alert to the risk of periodic pullbacks.
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