1、 Market Review
In the past week (September 9-15), the PA66 spot market has been consolidating strongly, with high prices remaining stagnant and the benchmark price maintaining at 19100.00 yuan/ton. Price fluctuations were limited during the week, and actual orders were mostly negotiated and sold. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the 60 day cycle is in the high range, and the one-year price position is in the mid low range; The differentiation of the moving average signal, with a 5-day moving average remaining flat, a 10 day moving average falling, and a 20 day moving average rising, belongs to a strong consolidation (bullish) state under a volatile market, and has not yet formed a completely consistent unilateral trend signal.
2、 Cost analysis
The price of upstream adiponitrile has increased, and upstream chemicals such as acrylonitrile have strengthened, driving the increase in cost support for PA66 production. In the early stage, the slicing price was close to the industry cost line, and the pressure of enterprise losses was significant. The willingness to ship at low prices weakened, and leading enterprises had a strong mentality of raising prices; However, the overall supply of adiponitrile is relatively abundant, and there is currently no significant contraction in supply. The foundation for sustained surge in raw material prices is not yet available.
3、 Supply and demand analysis
On the supply side, the domestic PA66 plant has maintained a relatively high level of operation, with sufficient overall supply of goods and no obvious shortage of goods; After the price rebound, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for price increases, but there has been no large-scale production reduction or price protection operation, and the market circulation of goods is still acceptable. In terms of demand, driven by the expected peak season of “Golden September”, inquiries from downstream modification, injection molding, and textile airbag silk industries have rebounded, and there are some preventive replenishment behaviors; However, there has been no explosive growth in actual orders at the terminal, and downstream acceptance of high-level raw materials is limited. Most of them maintain on-demand procurement, and the willingness to stockpile in large quantities is not strong. The demand side is restraining the upward trend of prices. Under the game of supply and demand, the market maintains a pattern of high volatility and consolidation.
4、 Short term forecast
In the short term, the PA66 spot market is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern. Cost support and peak season expectations are favorable for the market, and there is still some upward momentum; However, in the short term, the price is at a high level in the 60 day cycle, and downstream follow-up efforts are limited. There is significant resistance to sustained and significant surges, and it is expected to fluctuate within the range of 18700-19600 yuan/ton in the short term. The focus is on tracking the trend of adiponitrile raw materials and the actual landing of downstream autumn and winter orders.
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