The current sulfur market is in a historic unilateral upward trend, with prices breaking through nearly a year or even historical highs. There is still room for short-term upward movement, but overbought signals have fully emerged, and caution should be exercised against the risk of high-level pullback.
Current market situation
Price trend: unilateral upward trend, repeatedly reaching new highs
According to data from Shengyi Society, as of April 7th, the benchmark price of sulfur in Shengyi Society was 6700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 12.73% compared to the beginning of this month (5943.33 yuan/ton).; Since the start of the uptrend in mid March, the increase has exceeded 70%, reaching a historic high.
International market: The FOB price in the Middle East is 720-740 US dollars/ton, also reaching a historical high. The cost of imported goods arriving at the port is approaching the domestic spot price, forming strong support
Behind this market trend is the resonance of multiple favorable factors:
Supply side: The tense situation in the Middle East has directly led to a reduction in imported goods. As the main source of sulfur imports, the FOB price in the Middle East has soared to $720-740 per ton, with import costs inverted, directly sealing off the space for domestic price declines.
On the demand side: downstream phosphate fertilizer and new energy industries have rigid demand, coupled with low port inventory, the market is in a typical state of “supply shortage”. The price of granular sulfur in Changjiang Port has reached 6320-6380 yuan/ton, and the domestic solid sulfur in Shandong has also remained stable at 6150-6250 yuan/ton. The spot market is booming.
Futures end: Domestic sulfur futures (such as S2605 contract) have reached 6330 yuan/ton as of April 5th, an increase of 230 yuan from the previous day. The strong performance of the futures market further boosted the bullish sentiment in the spot market.
Business Society Spot Commodity Market System Predicts Future Trends
As shown in the chart, the moving average system (yellow line represents current price, higher than the moving averages of each cycle) indicates that the current price should be above all major moving averages, in line with the “upward trend”.
However, the consecutive “super rise” warnings (20 day, 30 day, 1-year super rise) that have appeared since April 3rd in the chart are direct risk warnings from the system for short-term rapid price increases that deviate from the moving average and are at extreme historical percentiles.
System comprehensive diagnosis: The current sulfur price only meets the upward conditions in the “trend characteristics”, but seriously does not meet the conditions in the “position characteristics”. According to the system rules, this is not only a ‘buying point’, but also a strong ‘alert’ or ‘risk’ signal issued by the system. The price has entered the ‘high-risk zone’ after a sustained surge.
Future price forecast
After the price reaches a record high, the momentum for continued rapid upward movement will weaken. There is a high probability of entering a high-level oscillation phase, which means fluctuating repeatedly at the current level (such as the range of 6500-6800 yuan/ton). Be alert to any negative news (such as easing geopolitical tensions or intensifying downstream resistance) that may trigger a rapid technical correction.
In summary, the probability of sulfur prices continuing to rise sharply in the short term is low due to technical overbought and systemic risk warnings. It is expected to enter a high-level oscillation pattern and face the risk of a possible pullback at any time. The medium to long term trend is highly dependent on the geopolitical and import supply situation in the Middle East. In the current system evaluation of the ‘extremely high position’, any pursuit of heights requires extreme caution.
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