From June 5th to 8th (as of 10:00), the domestic methanol market in East China port prices rose from 3160 yuan/ton to around 3213 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.69% during the period, a month on month decrease of 2.50%, and a year-on-year increase of 38.92%. Domestic and mainland methanol prices continue to rise, with inland factories concentrating on pre-sales and exceeding orders for shipments, causing obstacles to truck transportation and loading in many places; In addition, the rebound in futures has boosted market sentiment, and under the logic of buying up, spot prices in various regions have generally risen.
As of the close on June 4th, methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated and fell. The MA2609 contract opened at 2938 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2938 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2868 yuan/ton. It closed at 2877 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 31 yuan/ton from the previous day’s closing settlement. The MA2609 contract position was 694900 lots, a decrease of 31300 lots from the previous trading day.
On the cost side, coal supply is sufficient, but due to the rapid rise in market prices in the early stage, downstream resistance to high prices has increased, and prices may fluctuate narrowly. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.
On the demand side, from the downstream perspective, the market price of acetic acid continues to decline, the formaldehyde market is experiencing a narrow increase, and the dimethyl ether market is stable with some growth. Most downstream products are affected by methanol prices, and the demand for methanol is biased towards favorable factors.
On the supply side, some devices have undergone maintenance, while others have been restored. The overall recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, resulting in an increase in production and capacity utilization. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.
In terms of external markets, as of the close on June 4th, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $605-607 per ton. The FOB US Gulf methanol market closed at 151-153 cents per gallon; The European FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 450-452 euros/ton.
In the future market forecast, both domestic methanol and downstream enterprises have maintenance losses, and the supply-demand game is relatively deadlocked. The inventory in ports and mainland China remains low, and the available spot goods for enterprises are tight. The circulation of methanol spot goods in the market is relatively limited, which still provides support for the methanol market. Overall, the methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol spot market will mainly consolidate.
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