In June 2026, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 15955 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 3.30%.
On June 29th, the Business Society Lead Index was 97.83, a decrease of 0.28 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.00% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and an increase of 31.09% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In June, the lead ingot market showed a unilateral downward trend and a weak oscillation pattern. Throughout the month, lead prices remained flat only on June 1st and have since continued to decline. They only briefly stabilized and rebounded from June 13th to 16th, but the rebound was weak and failed to reverse the downward trend.
The supply side presents a triple contraction of “tight mines, regeneration losses, and import barriers”
Lead concentrate continues to be in short supply, domestic processing fees remain at a low level of 200 yuan/metal ton, and import processing fees are deeply inverted to -165 US dollars/dry ton. Primary lead enterprises have gradually entered monthly maintenance, with a slight decrease in operating rates; Recycled lead enterprises generally suffer losses, with operating rates of less than 30%. The inverted price comparison between Shanghai and London has led to the closure of the import window for refined lead, making it difficult for overseas sources of goods to flow in.
The demand side coincides with the traditional off-season of mid year consumption
Lead acid batteries have entered the off-season, and the demand for replacing electric two wheelers has declined. The growth of car starter batteries has been flat, and downstream battery factories have high finished product inventories and production is determined by sales. Only essential purchases are made, and individual transactions are light.
Significant differentiation between internal and external inventory
The social inventory of domestic lead ingots continues to slowly deplete, and low inventory forms a bottom support for prices; However, LME inventory remains at a historical high of around 300000 tons, and the weak external market continues to drag down the rebound height of the internal market.
Overall summary
Looking ahead to July, the macro level expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates remains the biggest suppressing factor; Fundamentally, the shortage of mineral resources and the loss of recycled lead are difficult to reverse in the short term, and cost support still exists. It is expected that lead prices will continue to fluctuate weakly, with a reference range of 15800-16300 yuan/ton. The effectiveness of cost support will be monitored below, and any breakthrough above will depend on signals of macroeconomic sentiment recovery or seasonal improvement in demand.
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