Cobalt prices stop rising and fall in July

Cobalt prices stop rising and fall in July
On July 16th, the cobalt price was 378800 yuan/ton, which first rose and then fell by 0.42% compared to the cobalt price of 380400 yuan/ton on June 30th; Compared to July 10th, the cobalt price dropped by 383800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.77%. At the end of June, cobalt prices stopped falling and rose. In early July, cobalt prices were strongly consolidating, downstream demand was weak, and cobalt prices fell rapidly.
Supply side: The growth of cobalt recycling alleviates the tight supply in the cobalt market
The Strategic Mineral Market Supervision Bureau of the Democratic Republic of Congo officially announced on June 30, 2026 the treatment plan for unused cobalt export quotas in the first half of 2026: unused quotas will be directly invalidated and reclassified into the national strategic quota pool, and enterprises will no longer be allowed to carry over to the second half of the year for use. The tight supply of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo has intensified.
In 2025, the supply of recycled cobalt in China will be about 23000 metal tons. By 2026, the supply of recycled cobalt in the first half of the year has reached 21000 metal tons, and it is expected to reach 45000 to 50000 metal tons for the whole year, which can meet 35% of China’s cobalt demand. The significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market.
Demand side: downstream weakness intensifies
On July 15th, data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers showed that from July 1st to 12th, the retail sales of new energy vehicles in the national passenger car market reached 280000 units, a decrease of 8% compared to the same period last July and a decrease of 3% compared to the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative retail sales have reached 4.984 million units, a decrease of 14% year-on-year; From July 1st to 12th, Chinese passenger car manufacturers wholesale 262000 new energy vehicles, a decrease of 9% compared to the same period last July and a decrease of 15% compared to the same period last month. Since the beginning of this year, a total of 7.05 million vehicles have been wholesale, a year-on-year increase of 4%. In July, the retail sales of new energy vehicles both decreased on a month on month basis, and the sales performance of new energy vehicles was poor. The weak terminal demand in the cobalt market intensified.
In June, the installed capacity of ternary batteries in China was 12.7GWh, accounting for 16.5% of the total installed capacity, a decrease of 5.5% compared to the previous month and an increase of 18.1% year-on-year; The proportion of ternary battery installation has decreased, and the total installation volume has decreased month on month. The cobalt consumption of ternary batteries has also decreased, and the weak demand in the cobalt market has intensified.
Market Overview and Future Outlook
Analysts believe that the sales of new energy vehicles have declined, the installation volume of ternary batteries has decreased, the cobalt market continued to be weak in July, and demand has further declined. However, the supply of cobalt raw materials in the Democratic Republic of Congo has not been restored for a long time, and the unused quota in the first half of the year has been invalidated, exacerbating the shortage of cobalt supply in the market; But the significant increase in cobalt recycling has greatly alleviated the supply shortage in the cobalt market. In the context of weak supply and demand in the cobalt market, the cobalt market may be seeking a weak balance. The supply-demand gap in the cobalt market may not meet market expectations, and the supply-demand gap may tighten, resulting in insufficient support for cobalt price increases. Overall, the weak supply and demand situation in the cobalt market continues, and in the short term, it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate weakly and consolidate in the future. In the medium to long term, the supply shortage in the cobalt market is difficult to change, and there is still room for cobalt prices to rise.