The cost has weakened significantly, and the focus of the domestic PTA market has shifted downwards this week (June 15-21). As of June 21st, the average price of PTA spot market in East China was 6116 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.51% from the beginning of the week.
The international oil price trend has declined. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the July WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $76.79 per barrel, and the settlement price of the August Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.55 per barrel. The expectation of US Iran reconciliation and the opening of the Strait of Hormuz continues to ferment, and the geopolitical risk premium will further clear. Oil prices are likely to maintain a weak and volatile trend, and the market will continue to compete with the progress of channel restart and the pace of increasing crude oil supply.
On the supply side, the industry’s operating rate this week was around 87%. The downstream polyester maintenance equipment is expected to restart, so the industrial inventory continues to decrease, providing support for market prices.
The leading downstream filament manufacturers have maintained the previous collaborative production reduction, and currently the direct spinning filament load is at a new low of 73% during the same period. At present, there are plans to restart the polyester factory next week, and there is no clear expectation of equipment shutdown. It is expected that the domestic polyester industry supply will slightly increase next week. The downstream start-up rate of terminal demand has slightly rebounded, and there may be expectations of seasonal replenishment in the later stage.
Analysts believe that the current PTA market is facing weakened costs, slow supply recovery, and no significant improvement in demand. It is expected that the PTA market will remain weak in the short term.

market trend
In the past week (June 10th to June 16th), domestic PA6 spot prices have been consolidating horizontally before experiencing a significant increase. The benchmark price for the week rose from 11733.33 yuan/ton to 12033.33 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.56%. Based on the indicators of spot moving average crossing and cycle position, the 10 day moving average at the beginning of the week crosses the 20 day moving average from a low level upwards, releasing a short-term long signal. The price quickly rises during the week, and the position of the 10 day cycle switches from a low level to a high level. The short-term bullish sentiment heats up, but the 20/30/60/90 day cycle is still in the middle and low range. The overall price for the year is only at the median level, and there is a constraint on the upward upward space. Market transactions are mainly focused on replenishing inventory for essential needs and small and medium batch purchases.
influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream caprolactam stabilizes and rebounds, forming cost support
Upstream pure benzene is oscillating strongly, and the stabilization of crude oil ranges has driven a slight increase in the cost center of chemical raw materials; After the continuous decline of the core monomer caprolactam in the early stage, the factory’s losses intensified. The industry took the initiative to reduce negative prices to protect prices, and spot prices rebounded, directly raising the production cost of PA6 and providing bottom support for slice prices.
In the early stage, the processing profit of the PA6 industry chain continued to compress, and the willingness of chip manufacturers to ship at low prices was weak, resulting in a gradual decrease in low-priced sources of goods; With the stabilization of caprolactam, the pessimistic expectation of further decline in raw materials in the market has subsided, and traders and downstream are resistant to buying at low prices. Cost logic dominates the bottom rebound of this round.
Supply and demand side: Supply side contraction, downstream seasonal replenishment, marginal improvement in supply and demand
On the supply side: Under the long-term low price market in the early stage, some PA6 polymerization units operated at low loads and underwent periodic maintenance, resulting in continuous consumption of market supply and digestion of factory inventory. The tightness of spot circulation slightly increased; After the price rebound within the week, the pace of factory shipments accelerated, but the short-term increase in volume was limited, and the supply easing pattern eased in the short term. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the prices on the 60th and 90th days are still at a low level, and the overall supply in the medium and long term is not considered scarce, only a temporary contraction.
On the demand side: Currently, the industry is in a traditional off-season for demand, and the overall production of textile modification terminals remains at a low level. There is a lack of long-term willingness to purchase large orders; But after the continuous oversold, downstream factory raw material inventories bottomed out, and short-term replenishment was carried out in stages during the week. The concentrated release of essential needs drove up spot trading volume and short-term upward trend in slice prices. At the same time, as prices remain low, some traders are stocking up with a small amount of bottom fishing, further amplifying short-term upward momentum.
Future forecast
Short term PA6 maintains a strong and volatile trend, but there is limited room for continuous upward movement. Positive support: There is currently no rapid weakening logic on the cost side of caprolactam, and downstream demand for low-level replenishment still continues; Suppressing factors: Lack of high demand during the off-season at the terminal, with prices entering a high range in the 10 day cycle, short-term profit taking pressure, and an unchanged pattern of loose supply in the medium and long term.
It is expected that the mainstream spot price range for PA6 in the short term will be 11900-12200 yuan/ton, and there may be a slight correction at high levels, making it difficult to break out of a sustained unilateral upward trend.

On the early morning of June 15th local time, the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that after months of negotiations, the complete text of the memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States has been finalized, and the peace agreement has been officially implemented. This document, called the “Islamabad Memorandum,” will be signed by the three parties in Switzerland on Friday, June 19th, with Pakistan as the coordinating party to witness it together. After three and a half months of substantial flow restrictions and blockades, the Strait of Hormuz, which affects the global energy lifeline, has seen a clear timetable for reopening, causing significant fluctuations in the energy and polyester industry chain markets.
1、 Core terms of the tripartite agreement: 60 day transition period, comprehensive navigation across the strait, and relaxation of US sanctions against Iran
This agreement has been jointly confirmed by the United States, Iran, and Pakistan, with a 60 day transition period as a buffer to create conditions for subsequent comprehensive and in-depth negotiations. The core binding clauses are clear:
1. Establish a permanent ceasefire throughout the region, and immediately cease all military conflicts on all fronts along the Middle East, including Lebanon;
2. The Strait of Hormuz is open to navigation without discrimination, allowing all types of merchant ships worldwide to freely pass through and lifting restrictions on past navigation;
3. The US has lifted the blockade measures on Iranian ports and simultaneously introduced multiple batches of sanctions exemption policies targeting Iran’s energy trade.
2、 Rapid response on the market: Crude oil plummeted by 4%, PET bottle spot prices fell below 8000 yuan/ton, and spot data weakened synchronously
On the morning of June 15th, after the news was released, the international commodity and domestic chemical markets were all volatile, and the market’s risk aversion quickly dissipated: the largest decline in international crude oil during the session expanded to 7%, and the overall closing fell by more than 4%. Brent crude oil directly fell below the key threshold of $80 per barrel; Risk assets such as gold, silver, US stock futures, and cryptocurrencies have simultaneously strengthened, leading to a significant outflow of safe haven funds from the crude oil market.
Transmitting to the domestic polyester industry chain, the cost collapse effect is quickly realized. The main contract for PET bottle flakes in the futures market plummeted by over 5% in early trading; According to price data, the spot price of PET bottle slices in East China shows that the mainstream negotiated prices in the market have been significantly reduced, and the spot market has directly broken through the integer threshold of 8000 yuan/ton, with a cliff like drop of several hundred yuan compared to the previous trading day’s average price. The pessimistic sentiment of the industrial chain has been released in a concentrated manner.
3、 Bottom line logic of price decline: geopolitical premium cleared, expected complete reversal of raw material supply gap
1. Rapid divestment of Middle East geopolitical risk premium
Previously, the core support for continuously bottoming out international oil prices and raising the cost of polyester raw materials – the geopolitical premium of the Middle East conflict – was quickly cleared with the implementation of the peace agreement. The market no longer pays additional risk premiums for the interruption of cross-strait shipping and the obstruction of crude oil transportation, and crude oil pricing returns to supply and demand fundamentals.
2. The logic of PX and PTA raw material shortage is completely shaken
Data shows that before the implementation of the agreement, the operating rate of PX facilities in Asia remained at a low level of 64% -65% in recent years. The market is generally concerned about the disruption of crude oil and aromatic hydrocarbon transportation in the Middle East, which may lead to a shortage of raw materials and become the core driving force for the continuous destocking and firm prices of PX and PTA.

With the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the supply chains of crude oil and aromatic hydrocarbons in the Middle East are expected to be repaired in an orderly manner within a few weeks, reversing the long-term market expectation of a hard supply gap in raw materials; After the end of this round of PTA centralized maintenance cycle, the willingness of factories to resume work will significantly increase, and the supply gap of medium and long-term raw materials will continue to narrow. The cost support of PET bottle flakes will continue to weaken.
4、 The supply and demand fundamentals of bottle tablets have weakened synchronously, with both internal and external pressures amplifying the downward trend
The decline in crude oil prices is only an external trigger for the price drop. The core internal cause of the continuous weakening of the market is the shift in the supply and demand pattern of PET bottle flakes from tight to loose. Combined with the monitoring data of the polyester industry chain by Shengyi Society, it can be clearly confirmed that:
Supply side: Steady release of production capacity, continuous accumulation of inventory
The overall capacity utilization rate of PET bottle flakes in China has rebounded from a low of 71% in the early stage to 71.9%; Multiple sets of pre parking maintenance devices have been restarted one after another; Inventory data shows that the available days of finished product inventory in the bottle chip factory have rebounded from the extremely low level at the end of April to over 9 days, and supply pressure is gradually emerging. If the transportation of raw materials from the Middle East is fully restored, the industry’s operating rate may further increase after the maintenance season ends, and the supply increment will continue to be released.
Demand side: Traditional peak season delivery falls short of expectations, downstream replenishment power is insufficient
Although there is a rigid procurement demand in the soft drink industry, high priced raw materials suppress enterprise profits in the early stage, and downstream manufacturers generally purchase according to demand, resulting in a lack of large-scale centralized replenishment actions. The overall market demand is showing a weak trend during the peak season, and there is a high probability that the demand for polyester will reach a turning point in mid to late June; After the easing of tensions between Iran and the United States, the circulation of overseas goods has improved, and the price competitiveness and sustainability of domestic bottle chip export orders are facing challenges, putting pressure on both domestic and international markets. Overall, the weakening of international crude oil is an external downward driving force, while the loose supply and demand in the industry is an internal suppressing force. Under the dual negative resonance, the decline in PET bottle flakes may continue to exceed that of upstream PX and PTA raw materials.
5、 Prediction of future market trend: 8000 yuan has shifted from support to strong resistance, and the price center continues to shift downwards
Based on the trend of spot prices, supply and demand data of the industrial chain, and changes in geopolitical policies, the PET bottle chip market can be roughly divided into two stages:
Short term 1-2 weeks: Emotions will dominate and fluctuate weakly, and the bearish sentiment brought by the peace agreement in the range of 7800-8000 yuan/ton will be concentrated and released, making it difficult for crude oil to experience a significant rebound in the short term; If the agreement is smoothly implemented and safe haven funds flow back to precious metals, the pressure on crude oil will continue to be weak. Corresponding to the PET bottle spot market, the 8000 yuan mark has completely transformed from strong support in the early stage to core resistance above. The market is likely to operate weakly in the range of 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Shengshe may continue to hover at the lower edge of this range.
Mid term 1-2 months: Fundamental repricing, with three major variables determining the downward space. The pricing logic of the market will depart from geopolitical conflicts and return to the supply and demand of the polyester industry chain itself. The key observation points for the subsequent market trend are: the actual recovery speed of the Middle East aromatics and crude oil supply chains; The pace of industry resumption and production after PTA maintenance is completed; Is there a centralized replenishment window downstream at the end of the traditional peak season for beverages.

Summarizing the implementation of the Iran US peace agreement, the “geopolitical premium bull market” that supported the energy and polyester markets for several months has officially come to an end. At present, PET bottle chips are in a dual negative environment of continuously loosening cost support and the industry’s supply and demand shifting from tight to wide. The spot monitoring data of Shengyi Society confirms that the 8000 yuan mark has effectively fallen below. The market will break away from geopolitical speculation and rely on real supply and demand to re anchor a reasonable price range. Short term downward pressure still exists.

price trend
This week, the market price of isopropanol fell. At the beginning of the week, the average price of isopropanol in China was 7366.67 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 7275 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 1.24%.
The market price of isopropanol has fallen this week. The price of raw material acetone has fallen, and cost support is weak, resulting in a decrease in factory offer prices. Overall, the isopropanol market is weak, with poor market confidence and increased shipping sentiment among holders, mainly driven by downstream demand. As of now, most of the isopropanol market prices in Shandong are around 7000-7100 yuan/ton; The majority of prices in the isopropanol market in Jiangsu are around 7300-7500 yuan/ton.
Future forecast
The isopropanol analyst from Business Society Chemical Branch believes that the isopropanol market price has fallen this week. Downstream demand is the main focus, and the mentality of cargo holders is unstable, leading to an increase in shipping sentiment. It is expected that the short-term market will be weak and mainly focused on consolidation, with more attention paid to the trading trends of major companies.

1、 Trend analysis
This week, nickel prices fluctuated, first falling and then slightly rising. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 136033.33 yuan/ton, down 3.13% from the beginning of the week and up 11.44% year-on-year.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with the three key interest rates increasing by 25 basis points, signaling a global tightening restart. The US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase in over three years, and inflation stickiness far exceeded expectations. The US President suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned strike against Iran, causing geopolitical risks to cool overnight. Crude oil plummeted by over 8% during trading, and risk aversion quickly receded. Gold and silver rose simultaneously. The US stock market rebounded sharply in response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 930 points in a single day, and all three major indexes closing higher. Technology stocks led the rise, driving a rebound in risk appetite.
On the supply side, there is a clear differentiation in the supply side. Indonesia’s reduction of nickel ore quotas has led to a tight supply of high-grade laterite nickel ore, while the Philippines’ low-grade ore is difficult to fill the gap; High quality nickel sulfide resources are scarce, high ice nickel production is slow, MHP production capacity is shrinking due to high sulfur prices, and regenerated nickel production is stagnant due to a shortage of scrap steel.
On the demand side: The demand side continues to be weak, and both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a wait-and-see state. Stainless steel (accounting for over 60%) remains the absolute mainstay, with high production but weak terminal demand; New energy batteries (accounting for about 17%) have been impacted by the replacement of lithium iron phosphate, resulting in a significant slowdown in growth rate; High temperature alloys are in high demand in the fields of aviation engines and military industry, becoming a structural highlight of high-end manufacturing.
In summary, on June 11-12, the market will focus on the May PPI and unemployment benefits data in the United States. If the data strengthens the expectation of interest rate hikes, nickel prices may be further suppressed. In the short term, high inventory and weak demand remain unchanged, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.