market trend
In the past week (June 10th to June 16th), domestic PA6 spot prices have been consolidating horizontally before experiencing a significant increase. The benchmark price for the week rose from 11733.33 yuan/ton to 12033.33 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.56%. Based on the indicators of spot moving average crossing and cycle position, the 10 day moving average at the beginning of the week crosses the 20 day moving average from a low level upwards, releasing a short-term long signal. The price quickly rises during the week, and the position of the 10 day cycle switches from a low level to a high level. The short-term bullish sentiment heats up, but the 20/30/60/90 day cycle is still in the middle and low range. The overall price for the year is only at the median level, and there is a constraint on the upward upward space. Market transactions are mainly focused on replenishing inventory for essential needs and small and medium batch purchases.
influencing factors
Cost side: Upstream caprolactam stabilizes and rebounds, forming cost support
Upstream pure benzene is oscillating strongly, and the stabilization of crude oil ranges has driven a slight increase in the cost center of chemical raw materials; After the continuous decline of the core monomer caprolactam in the early stage, the factory’s losses intensified. The industry took the initiative to reduce negative prices to protect prices, and spot prices rebounded, directly raising the production cost of PA6 and providing bottom support for slice prices.
In the early stage, the processing profit of the PA6 industry chain continued to compress, and the willingness of chip manufacturers to ship at low prices was weak, resulting in a gradual decrease in low-priced sources of goods; With the stabilization of caprolactam, the pessimistic expectation of further decline in raw materials in the market has subsided, and traders and downstream are resistant to buying at low prices. Cost logic dominates the bottom rebound of this round.
Supply and demand side: Supply side contraction, downstream seasonal replenishment, marginal improvement in supply and demand
On the supply side: Under the long-term low price market in the early stage, some PA6 polymerization units operated at low loads and underwent periodic maintenance, resulting in continuous consumption of market supply and digestion of factory inventory. The tightness of spot circulation slightly increased; After the price rebound within the week, the pace of factory shipments accelerated, but the short-term increase in volume was limited, and the supply easing pattern eased in the short term. From the perspective of cycle position indicators, the prices on the 60th and 90th days are still at a low level, and the overall supply in the medium and long term is not considered scarce, only a temporary contraction.
On the demand side: Currently, the industry is in a traditional off-season for demand, and the overall production of textile modification terminals remains at a low level. There is a lack of long-term willingness to purchase large orders; But after the continuous oversold, downstream factory raw material inventories bottomed out, and short-term replenishment was carried out in stages during the week. The concentrated release of essential needs drove up spot trading volume and short-term upward trend in slice prices. At the same time, as prices remain low, some traders are stocking up with a small amount of bottom fishing, further amplifying short-term upward momentum.
Future forecast
Short term PA6 maintains a strong and volatile trend, but there is limited room for continuous upward movement. Positive support: There is currently no rapid weakening logic on the cost side of caprolactam, and downstream demand for low-level replenishment still continues; Suppressing factors: Lack of high demand during the off-season at the terminal, with prices entering a high range in the 10 day cycle, short-term profit taking pressure, and an unchanged pattern of loose supply in the medium and long term.
It is expected that the mainstream spot price range for PA6 in the short term will be 11900-12200 yuan/ton, and there may be a slight correction at high levels, making it difficult to break out of a sustained unilateral upward trend.
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