1、 Trend analysis
This week, nickel prices fluctuated, first falling and then slightly rising. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 136033.33 yuan/ton, down 3.13% from the beginning of the week and up 11.44% year-on-year.
LME nickel inventory
Macroscopically, the European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the first time in three years, with the three key interest rates increasing by 25 basis points, signaling a global tightening restart. The US PPI surged to 6.5% year-on-year in May, the largest increase in over three years, and inflation stickiness far exceeded expectations. The US President suddenly announced the cancellation of the planned strike against Iran, causing geopolitical risks to cool overnight. Crude oil plummeted by over 8% during trading, and risk aversion quickly receded. Gold and silver rose simultaneously. The US stock market rebounded sharply in response, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average soaring nearly 930 points in a single day, and all three major indexes closing higher. Technology stocks led the rise, driving a rebound in risk appetite.
On the supply side, there is a clear differentiation in the supply side. Indonesia’s reduction of nickel ore quotas has led to a tight supply of high-grade laterite nickel ore, while the Philippines’ low-grade ore is difficult to fill the gap; High quality nickel sulfide resources are scarce, high ice nickel production is slow, MHP production capacity is shrinking due to high sulfur prices, and regenerated nickel production is stagnant due to a shortage of scrap steel.
On the demand side: The demand side continues to be weak, and both upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are in a wait-and-see state. Stainless steel (accounting for over 60%) remains the absolute mainstay, with high production but weak terminal demand; New energy batteries (accounting for about 17%) have been impacted by the replacement of lithium iron phosphate, resulting in a significant slowdown in growth rate; High temperature alloys are in high demand in the fields of aviation engines and military industry, becoming a structural highlight of high-end manufacturing.
In summary, on June 11-12, the market will focus on the May PPI and unemployment benefits data in the United States. If the data strengthens the expectation of interest rate hikes, nickel prices may be further suppressed. In the short term, high inventory and weak demand remain unchanged, and it is expected that nickel prices will continue to fluctuate weakly.
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