This week, the domestic light rare earth market price trend has risen. On July 2, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 663 points, a decrease of 34.16% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 144.65% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
This week, the prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide in China have all increased. As of the weekend, the price of neodymium oxide was 817500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.15%; The price of neodymium metal is 990000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.54%; The price of praseodymium oxide is 807500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.89%; The price of praseodymium metal is 9.39 million yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 2.59%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 907500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 2.25%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 760000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.47%.
This week, the domestic light rare earth market prices have risen, and the trend of core product prices has increased. This round of increase is the result of a triple logical resonance of rigid tightening on the supply side, continuous catalysis on the policy side, and the expected peak season on the demand side.
1、 Supply side: Double contraction caused by a sharp drop in imports and reduced recycling production
Myanmar is an important source of rare earth imports for China, but in May 2026, China’s imports of rare earth oxides (REO) from Myanmar plummeted by 72% year-on-year and 54% month on month. Overall, the import volume of rare earth minerals in China in May was 6458.2 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 44.4% and a month on month decrease of 23.8%. Affected by stricter tax policies, the operating rate of rare earth waste recycling enterprises has significantly declined, and the production of recycled oxides in June 2026 has decreased by 19.5% compared to the previous month. Affected by the dual contraction of imports and recycling, the domestic production of praseodymium neodymium oxide decreased by 31% year-on-year in May, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 18%. As a result, the market for light rare earths has risen.
2、 Policy side: Strategic upgrading and continuous increase in export control
On June 15th, the Implementation Regulations of the Mineral Resources Law officially came into effect, and rare earths were officially included in the national strategic mineral resources catalog. At the same time, the national rare earth mining total quota for 2026 will only be slightly increased by 5%, and the increase in the quota for light rare earth mining will be limited; The second batch of rare earth mining indicators showed a year-on-year decrease, and the quota for rare earth mining of rock and mineral types was significantly reduced. On June 22, the Ministry of Commerce issued a notice to include ten overseas entities in the dual-use item export control list, including two top rare earth companies in the United States. The continuous tightening of export controls has forced overseas customers to increase their domestic procurement efforts, with both domestic and foreign demand supporting each other, further exacerbating the tight supply of domestic spot goods and leading to an upward trend in market prices.
3、 Demand side: Expected start of peak season, multiple tracks with concentrated volume increase
The second half of the year is the peak season for production and sales in fields such as automobiles and industrial robots, and the procurement of magnetic raw materials often begins around July. As the end of the quarter approaches, magnetic material manufacturing enterprises are conducting monthly raw material bidding and procurement, and market transaction orders are being released in a concentrated manner. In addition, from January to May 2026, the cumulative export volume of rare earth magnetic materials in China increased by 16% compared to the same period in 2024; From January to May 2026, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles in China increased by 2.5% year-on-year; The cumulative output of industrial robots increased by 47.8% year-on-year; Emerging fields such as wind power and humanoid robots continue to drive up the consumption of high-end permanent magnet materials, and the increase in downstream demand supports the rise of the light rare earth market.
In the short term, the rare earth market is prone to rise but difficult to fall. The global and Chinese supply and demand of praseodymium neodymium oxide are expected to remain tight in the medium to long term, and the price center of rare earths is expected to gradually rise. With the increasing demand in downstream fields such as new energy vehicles, wind power installation, and industrial motors, coupled with the continuous tightening of rare earth industry control, the expectation of strategic storage, and the recovery of overseas high-end manufacturing demand, the supply and demand pattern of rare earths is expected to tighten again. At the same time, rare earths, as the core raw materials of high-tech industries, remain unchanged in the long-term demand growth logic under the background of carbon neutrality and high-end manufacturing upgrading, and the rare earth market is expected to strengthen in a long-term trend.
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