1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business community, the spot market price of PVC SG5 fell in October. On October 1, the average price of domestic PVC was 6265.71 yuan/ton, and on October 28, the average price was 6021.43 yuan/ton. The price fell 3.9% in the month.

2、 Market analysis

After the National Day holiday, the market price of PVC calcium carbide SG5 rose slightly for a short time. With the end of the small replenishment after the festival, affected by the decline of futures, the lack of confidence in the PVC spot market weakened, and the market price began to fall gradually. Both futures and current prices fell this month, which affected market confidence mutually. At present, most manufacturers do not make external quotations, and the actual transaction is limited. The market trading atmosphere is more light. Up to now, the quotation range of PVC 5 carbide in China is mostly around 5650-6200 yuan/ton.

In terms of international crude oil, on October 27, the international crude oil futures prices continued to rise on the previous trading day. The settlement price of the main contract of U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 89.08 dollars/barrel, up 1.17 dollars or 1.3%; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract in December was 96.96 dollars/barrel, up 1.27 dollars or 1.3%. The focus of the market is still on the problem of tight supply. In addition, the economic data released on Thursday showed that the US GDP grew moderately by 2.6% in the third quarter, which is also good for oil prices at the macro level.

In terms of calcium carbide, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China rose slightly in October. The price of calcium carbide rose from 3700.00 yuan/ton on October 1 to 3950.00 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 6.76%. The price at the end of the month fell by 50.83% year-on-year. In the future: in the first ten days of November, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has risen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is well supported. However, the downstream 1,4 butanediol and PVC markets declined slightly, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in the first ten days of November, mainly finishing.

3、 Future market forecast

PVC analysts from the business agency believe that the PVC spot market price continued to fall this month, and the downstream demand was affected by the market performance of real estate data, and the market demand was still lower than expected. Although the upstream crude oil futures and calcium carbide prices rose, the impact on PVC spot prices was limited. The PVC market is expected to be weak and stable in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 27, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton. In October, the overall market of white carbon black was stable, with no significant change in price. At present, the downstream just needs to purchase mainly. The purchase intention is general, the market supply is normal, and the operating rate is stable. It is expected that the overall market will maintain the supply and demand balance in November, with little price fluctuation.

As of October 17, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, unchanged compared with the same period last week. At present, white carbon black is operating steadily, with merchants giving up profits and taking orders. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, the purchasing atmosphere is general, and the overall trend is stable. At present, the market supply is normal, the operating rate is stable, downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the white carbon black market is operating stably, with no significant price change compared with the same period last week, The downstream just needs to purchase mainly, and the contract customers are mainly supplied. The operating rate is stable, the logistics is smooth, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the manufacturers are active in shipping, and the overall market operation is stable.

As of October 24, the average price of domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market was stable and weak. At present, white carbon black is running smoothly, with stable operating rate, general purchasing atmosphere, and stable overall trend. At present, the market supply is normal, and the downstream just needs to purchase, while the white carbon black market is mainly stable, with no obvious price change compared with the same period last week. The main contract customers are supplied, with stable operating rate, and the downstream just needs to purchase, The logistics is smooth, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat, the willingness to prepare goods is not obvious, and the overall market operation is stable.

Chemical commodity index: On October 26, the chemical index was 971 points, down 2 points from yesterday, down 30.64% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and up 62.37% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

According to the white carbon black analysts of the business community, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably in November, with the mainstream price range of 6000 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of October 26, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9833.33 yuan/ton, 1.03% higher than that on Friday (October 21), 2.32% lower than that on September 26, and 5.43% higher than that on a three-month cycle.

From the perspective of supply and demand: On the 21st, with the increase of demand side procurement, factory shipments improved, the early inventory was digested, and the market atmosphere was warmer. On Monday, market shipments turned weak, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement decreased, and the supply side fluctuated slightly. On the demand side, the market atmosphere was weak. On the 26th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 9550-9650 yuan/ton.

On October 25, the reference price of upstream propylene was 7426.60, a decrease of 2.55% compared with October 1 (7620.60). Recently, the raw propylene market has been dominated by consolidation, and the cost is generally supported by the propylene oxide market.

At present, the cost support is limited, the supply support is average, and the demand side is weak. It is estimated that in the short term, the market situation of propylene oxide will be stagnant and weak, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 25, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton, which was 10 yuan/ton lower than that on October 1 (1064 yuan/ton), a decrease of 0.91%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that since October (10.1-10.24), the domestic phosphorus ore market has declined slightly as a whole. After the National Day holiday, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard was quiet, and the weak market situation of the terminal phosphate fertilizer market gave ordinary support to the phosphate rock. Most of the support in the phosphate rock yard came from the continuous tension of the supply side, and the offer of the operators was multi-dimensional and stable. Some mining enterprises in Sichuan reduced the price of the phosphate rock market slightly, with a reduction rate of about 10 yuan/ton.

In the late October, the phosphorus ore market was operating steadily and slightly. Some mining enterprises in Yunnan Province reduced the price of phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan/ton in response to new orders. Near the end of the month, some mines were shut down, and the supply and demand of the site was relatively calm.

On October 25, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China was around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1160-1260 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, the recent (10.14-10.24) yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm for picking up goods in the downstream is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream demand for phosphate rock is generally weak, the demand side support is general, and the supply side supports the mentality of the industry. The phosphate rock data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will mainly operate stably and comprehensively, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the specific changes in the consumption of the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 24 was 94.36, unchanged from yesterday, 15.38% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has been basically stable since the second half of October, mainly reporting about 15442.86 yuan/ton. At present, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, have stopped production since the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements, and the industry is expected to resume production this month; At the same time, many places have been in a state of silence due to public health events recently. The cost of raw materials continues to rise, the downstream demand is general, the spot inventory is sufficient, and the overall market of polyacrylamide is temporarily stable.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the price of acrylonitrile rose sharply that week (10.17-10.24). As of October 24, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10820 yuan/ton, up 5.56% from 10250 yuan/ton on October 17. At present, the price of acrylonitrile apron in China is between 10700-11200 yuan/ton, and it is difficult to find low price goods in the market. Traders are reluctant to sell. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain high in the future.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the domestic market of acrylic acid has declined since October 17, and the quotation in East China has declined from 8433.33 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton on October 24, a decrease of 2.77%. At present, the cost support is limited, the market transaction is just in demand, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic market will be dominated by deadlock in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market price of LNG has fluctuated slightly since October 17, up and down: the average market price was 6342 yuan/ton on October 17, up to 6356 yuan/ton on October 22, and down to 6330 yuan/ton on October 24. During the week, the domestic LNG market was in shock and consolidation operation, and the price rose and fell with each other. At present, the market demand is general, and the market trading is weak. With the improvement of transportation and heating in winter, the industry is in a strong bullish mood. It is expected that the market of LNG will continue to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: On the whole, the water treatment market this year is not as good as that of the same period in 2021. Public health events have had multiple impacts since this month. Although some raw materials have risen moderately, there are also raw materials that have fluctuated and declined, and the cost has risen and fallen in different ways. The demand is low and the spot inventory is still sufficient. The future market is still dominated by stability, supplemented by small adjustments.