According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on October 24 was 94.36, unchanged from yesterday, 15.38% lower than the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and 13.84% higher than the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China has been basically stable since the second half of October, mainly reporting about 15442.86 yuan/ton. At present, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, have stopped production since the 10th due to environmental protection policy requirements, and the industry is expected to resume production this month; At the same time, many places have been in a state of silence due to public health events recently. The cost of raw materials continues to rise, the downstream demand is general, the spot inventory is sufficient, and the overall market of polyacrylamide is temporarily stable.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the price of acrylonitrile rose sharply that week (10.17-10.24). As of October 24, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 10820 yuan/ton, up 5.56% from 10250 yuan/ton on October 17. At present, the price of acrylonitrile apron in China is between 10700-11200 yuan/ton, and it is difficult to find low price goods in the market. Traders are reluctant to sell. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will remain high in the future.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business society, the domestic market of acrylic acid has declined since October 17, and the quotation in East China has declined from 8433.33 yuan/ton to 8200 yuan/ton on October 24, a decrease of 2.77%. At present, the cost support is limited, the market transaction is just in demand, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that the acrylic market will be dominated by deadlock in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of the business community, the market price of LNG has fluctuated slightly since October 17, up and down: the average market price was 6342 yuan/ton on October 17, up to 6356 yuan/ton on October 22, and down to 6330 yuan/ton on October 24. During the week, the domestic LNG market was in shock and consolidation operation, and the price rose and fell with each other. At present, the market demand is general, and the market trading is weak. With the improvement of transportation and heating in winter, the industry is in a strong bullish mood. It is expected that the market of LNG will continue to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: On the whole, the water treatment market this year is not as good as that of the same period in 2021. Public health events have had multiple impacts since this month. Although some raw materials have risen moderately, there are also raw materials that have fluctuated and declined, and the cost has risen and fallen in different ways. The demand is low and the spot inventory is still sufficient. The future market is still dominated by stability, supplemented by small adjustments.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong Province increased from 9066.67 yuan/ton at the weekend to 9166.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.10%, a year-on-year decrease of 32.93%. On October 23, the isooctanol commodity index was 67.40, unchanged from yesterday, down 50.98% from the peak of 137.50 (2021-08-08) in the cycle, and up 91.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and increased downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers rose slightly this week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week, with the price falling from 7620.60 yuan/ton at the weekend to 7426.60 yuan/ton at the weekend, a 2.55% drop, 20.50% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market price fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand, the price of isooctanol was negatively affected.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the DOP factory price rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 10220.00 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 10390.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 1.66% and a year-on-year decrease of 20.08%. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol.

Insufficient upstream support, increased downstream demand, and the future market of isooctanol is bullish

In late October, the market of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. Although the upstream propylene market declined slightly and the cost support was insufficient, the downstream DOP market rose slightly and the downstream demand increased. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business community, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may rise slightly due to the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Adjustment of DOP price shock

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the DOP price was 10410 yuan/ton, up 1.86% from 10220 yuan/ton on October 13; Compared with the DOP price of 10480 yuan/ton on October 11, the decline was 0.67%; Compared with the DOP price of 10120 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, the increase was 2.87%. In October, the DOP price rose first, then fell, and then rose again. The price of raw materials was adjusted by shocks. This week, the DOP price rose again.

The price of isooctanol rises again

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of isooctanol in October was adjusted to fluctuate. As of October 20, the price of isooctanol was 9233.33 yuan/ton, up 3.36% from 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 17; Compared with the price of isooctanol on October 10, which was 9333.33 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; The price of isooctanol rose by 3.36% to 8933.33 yuan/ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of isooctanol rose again this week, and the cost of DOP rose, but the overall demand recovery was limited, and the future rise was not supported enough.

The price of phthalic anhydride dropped from a high level

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the price of phthalic anhydride was 10500 yuan/ton, down 1.29% from 10637.50 yuan/ton on October 15. The number of phthalic anhydride enterprises started construction increased, the supply of phthalic anhydride increased, the high price of phthalic anhydride fell, the cost of DOP decreased, and the support for the rise of DOP weakened.

Future market expectation

According to the DOP data analysts of the business community, the demand for DOP remains sluggish, and the price of raw materials determines the trend of DOP. Recently, the high price of phthalic anhydride has fallen back, and the support for the rise of DOP is insufficient. The price of isooctanol fell first and then rose, and the DOP price has been adjusted accordingly. In the future, the price of phthalic anhydride will be stable after falling, the price of isooctanol will not be able to rise, the cost of DOP raw materials will be stable, and the demand will be low. It is expected that the DOP price will be stable after falling.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, on the 19th, the average market price of the nickel spot market was 192450 yuan/ton, up 3.13% from the previous trading day and 27.1% year on year.

The three major US stock indexes rose, with Lonnie closing 1.14% higher overnight. The rainy season in the main mining area of the Philippines is coming, and the price of nickel ore is firm. The supply and demand of ferronickel improved, and the short-term resource was tight. Indonesia’s tariff policy raised the cost of importing ferronickel, and the price of nickel pig iron rose. The demand for nickel sulfate from new energy power batteries has rebounded, and the downstream stainless steel production has increased. However, at present, the steel plant’s resumption of production has limited incremental consumption of pure nickel, and the nickel beans used in new energy have hardly been traded, but the demand for alloy is growing and the tolerance for nickel price is high. Nickel price is expected to be dominated by short-term shocks.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (October 18): 2526 yuan/ton

On October 18, the comprehensive price of domestic urea fell slightly, 4 yuan/ton lower than that on October 17, or 0.16%, and 17.68% lower than that on the same period last year. The upstream Yangquan anthracite (washing block) is about 1850 yuan/ton, the price is high and consolidated, and the cost support is firm. In terms of demand, agricultural demand is small and industrial demand is weak. The production of rubber sheet plants is low, and the purchase of rigid demand is the main demand. The production of compound fertilizer plants is declining, and the demand for urea is weakening. The price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was good. In terms of supply, Shanxi has limited production for environmental protection, and the daily output of urea is below 150000 tons.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price will fall slightly, with an average market price of about 2520 yuan/ton.