1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued to operate stably this week. On April 1, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton; On April 8, the price in Shandong was 12500-12800 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 12800 yuan / ton. The price was flat compared with last week and increased by 4.1% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, pure benzene: during the festival, pure benzene Market negotiations were light. Affected by public health events in Shandong, logistics was blocked, individual enterprises’ shipments were poor, and the price difference between regions was widened. In the middle of the week, the price of styrene rose due to the unexpected shutdown of a downstream styrene unit, and pure benzene rose with it. However, the overall atmosphere of pure benzene Market in Shandong is poor, with high-end prices falling and the price difference narrowing. On Friday (April 8), the price of pure benzene was 8500-8650 yuan / ton (the average price was 8580 yuan / ton). The average price increased by 50 yuan / ton, or 0.59%, and 28.06% over the same period last year.

Nitric acid: domestic nitric acid rose this week. On Friday (April 8), the domestic production price of nitric acid was 2416.67 yuan / ton, up 4.32% from last week and 8.21% from the same period last year.

During the week, Shandong Jinling and Dongying Huatai aniline plants increased slightly, one 100000 t / a plant in Nanhua was shut down for maintenance, and the supply end was tightened. Affected by public health events in the downstream, the demand is weak and only needs to be purchased. Under the game between supply and demand, aniline was temporarily stable during the week, and the operators were cautious.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost and pure benzene, under the situation of Russia and Ukraine, the price of crude oil is still high; The maintenance of pure benzene plant is centralized, and the supply side is expected to tighten; Under the influence of public health events, the operating rate of pure benzene and main downstream units decreased. Under the influence of domestic public health events, the mentality of pure benzene market is poor and the short-term trend is weak.

In terms of nitric acid, the market of nitric acid delivery has improved compared with the previous period, and the price of nitric acid is expected to strengthen.

However, the supply side of the downstream market is not good and the demand side is not good. Pay attention to the changes of market supply and demand, and there is no lack of possibility of decline of aniline.

Trade name: yellow phosphorus

Latest price April 7: 36500 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: on April 7, the focus of domestic yellow phosphorus market was downward. The overall market trading situation is general, and the logistics in some areas is blocked. Downstream enquiries increased, goods were taken more carefully, prices were pressed more, and enterprise quotations decreased slightly.

The price of yellow phosphorus is expected to be weak in the short term.

Trade name: TDI

Latest price (April 6): 19325 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: the average price of TDI market in East China today is stable% compared with the quotation of the previous working day, and the domestic TDI market will wait and see the sorting and operation. Affected by the situation in the downstream area, the purchasing atmosphere is stable, and the logistics market is temporarily blocked. At present, the quotation range of dealers in East China is about 18800-19000 yuan / ton for domestic goods and about 19000-19500 yuan / ton for Shanghai goods.

Future forecast: wait and see the TDI market in the later stage, and pay attention to the market supply and downstream follow-up.

One of the main reasons for the narrow rise in the domestic aggregate MDI market is the serious restrictions on logistics and transportation, traffic congestion at the expressway and soaring logistics and transportation costs. On the other hand, the supply of spot goods in some regions is tight, especially in East China, and the quotations of mainstream traders are gradually rising.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, from March 25 to April 2, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 18950 yuan / ton to 19550 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 3.17% during the week, a month on month decrease of 4.63% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.37%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of April 2:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong, 19500-19600 yuan / ton, 19300-19500 yuan / ton

East China, RMB 19500-19700 / ton, 19300-19500 yuan / ton

South China, 19500-19700 yuan / ton, 19400-19500 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of April 2:

Raw material pure benzene: the domestic overhaul season of pure benzene is coming, and the import is expected to have less impact. The fundamentals of domestic pure benzene are good. Even if the tracking crude oil price falls, the decline is expected to be small.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: domestic aniline maintains the consolidation pattern. The amount of aniline is less. The supply side changes little, the demand side is subject to force majeure factors such as traffic control, and the terminal profit transmission is poor.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; 600000 tons / year normal operation of Shanghai Kechuang unit; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally and has a maintenance plan in May; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may still be dominated by shock consolidation.

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, on the 1st, the average nickel market price was 224283.33 yuan / ton, up 0.86% from the previous trading day and 82.72% year-on-year.

European stocks fell and risk aversion increased, with Lun Ni closing down 1.46% overnight; Under the sealed control of the domestic epidemic, the logistics of some cities was blocked, the profits of downstream consumers shrank, and the spot transaction was poor. Recently, the epidemic prevention and control measures in Shanghai have been strengthened, the refined nickel trade and logistics storage have been greatly affected, the transactions in the spot market are cold, the downstream is difficult to accept the current high price, and the downstream has suffered a large loss. Recently, affected by the Lun nickel capital game, the nickel price fluctuates greatly, and the current price is still out of the scope of supply and demand and in an irrational state. Nickel prices are expected to maintain a wide range of shocks.