According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in the northwest region slightly decreased in November. The price of calcium carbide dropped from 2916.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2900.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.57%, and a year-on-year decrease of 22.67% at the end of the month.

From the supply side perspective, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in the northwest region slightly decreased in November.

Cost side: The price of blue charcoal has slightly decreased

In November, the upstream price of calcium carbide blue charcoal slightly decreased, with a price of around 1200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month. In the short term, the price of blue charcoal is stable but weak, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient.

On the demand side: Downstream market fluctuations and declines

In November, the downstream PVC market price of calcium carbide fluctuated and fell. The market price of PVC dropped from 5844.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 5764.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.37%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 3.98% year-on-year. The downstream market price of 1,4-butanediol has significantly decreased. The market price of 1,4-butanediol decreased from 10157.14 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9628.57 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 5.20%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 2.54% year-on-year. The downstream market is fluctuating and falling, and downstream demand is weakening.

Looking ahead, in mid to early December, the calcium carbide market may experience a slight decline, with consolidation being the main trend. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has slightly decreased, and the cost support for calcium carbide is insufficient. The downstream PVC and 1,4-butanediol markets have fluctuated and fallen, and downstream demand has weakened. In the future, the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region may experience a slight fluctuation and decline in mid to early December, with consolidation being the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic PTA spot market slightly declined in late November. As of November 27th, the average spot market price in East China was 5775 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.53% compared to November 20th. The international crude oil market is weak and volatile, with cost drivers slowing down. Coupled with the continuous discharge of PTA restart devices, the overall supply of goods is sufficient, leading to a decline in the PTA market.

From the perspective of PTA supply, with the restart of early maintenance equipment, the industry’s operating rate has increased to over 81%, indicating sufficient supply of goods. Looking ahead, the new production capacity of 1.25 million tons in South China may be put into operation by the end of the month. Even though the 2.5 million ton PTA plant in Shandong is planned for maintenance, the overall restart and new production capacity are greater than the planned maintenance capacity, and the future PTA supply will still be sufficient.

International crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is engaged in a game about whether the OPEC+conference can reach a strong production reduction agreement. At present, the market holds a pessimistic attitude towards reaching production reduction agreements with various companies, and the overall sentiment is weak. In addition, with the recent increase in supply from various regions, as of November 24th, the settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $75.54 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $80.48 per barrel.

The polyester production load will stabilize around 87% next week. The autumn and winter fabrics and lining materials sold domestically are still popular, with a small number of orders for domestic spring and summer fabrics and a small number of orders for foreign trade. However, due to the relatively high inventory pressure on conventional grey fabric in spring and summer, there is currently no significant improvement in the market. The comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has partially rebounded, and as of November 23, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving is over 75%.

Business Society analysts believe that the future PTA supply pressure will be highlighted, with few terminal demand orders and many polyester factories in urgent need of replenishment. Against the backdrop of a weakening market supply and demand structure, the short-term trend of PTA remains mainly weak.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic heavy rare earth market prices have been rising, but the prices of light rare earth markets have continued to decline. On November 23, the rare earth index was 490 points, a decrease of 8 points from yesterday, a decrease of 51.34% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 80.81% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The price trend of domestic dysprosium oxide, dysprosium iron alloy, and metallic dysprosium has increased. As of the 24th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.625 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.17% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy is 2.545 million yuan/ton, with a 3.04% increase this week; The price of dysprosium metal is 3.365 million yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.06%; The domestic price of terbium series has risen, with the domestic price of terbium oxide at 7.75 million yuan/ton and the price of metallic terbium at 9.45 million yuan/ton.

Recently, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has rebounded, and downstream large factories continue to support the market with sufficient market confidence. With an increase in procurement orders, the price trend in the heavy rare earth market has risen. The inverted situation of rare earth metal prices has improved, with an increase in on-site inquiries and some traders actively entering the market. In addition, due to the recent political impact on Myanmar, import sources in Myanmar have been restricted to some extent, which has supported the upward trend of prices in the domestic heavy rare earth market.

According to statistics, in October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 989000 and 956000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 5.7%, and a year-on-year increase of 29.2% and 33.5%, respectively. From January to October 2023, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 7.352 million and 7.28 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 33.9% and 37.8%. In 2023, the production and sales of new energy continue to rise, and the increase in production and sales of new energy vehicles still provides support for the rare earth market. The prices of heavy rare earths have rebounded.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, rare earth exports in October reached 4290.6 tons, a month on month increase of 9.0%; The cumulative rare earth exports from January to October were 44661.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.7%. The export volume of rare earth commodities from China increased, but to some extent, it supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have seen a surge in purchasing and ordering sentiment, with an increase in new orders. It is expected that the price trend in the heavy rare earth market will mainly rise in the short term; In the medium to long term, there is a lack of primary and renewable supply sources, and dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages. In addition, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, the global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 23, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3400 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to Monday’s price and an increase of 12.09% compared to the same period last year.

This week, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market was generally stable, with prices mainly adjusted in the range of 3100-3500 yuan/ton. After the recent price increase in the upstream sulfuric acid market, it has remained stable at a high level, while the upstream methanol market has fluctuated and declined. The cost side support is average, and downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, rubber, leather, and pesticides continue to have a strong demand for the formic acid market procurement. The supply and demand side support is relatively stable. The enthusiasm for downstream inquiry procurement is still good, and the market transactions are orderly.

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that at present, downstream on-demand procurement has little overall market volatility, and enterprises are mainly stable and wait-and-see. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention will still need to be paid to changes in raw material prices.

Price: 4206 yuan/ton

Analysis: On November 22nd, the domestic liquid ammonia market fell from a high point, and the Shandong region gradually declined this week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the main production area of Shandong fell by 1.9% on Wednesday, and the trading center fell by about 200 yuan/ton compared to the previous Friday. The main reason is that the trend of tight supply in the main production areas has eased, and some faulty enterprises have resumed operation, gradually showing supply pressure. Since November, the import supply has also increased, which has had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Large factories in Shandong, Hebei, and other regions have all lowered their prices, with most of the price reductions today ranging from 50 to 100 yuan/ton. On the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable, and the atmosphere of urea speculation has declined. The current industrial demand remains strong. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 4000-4200 yuan/ton.

Prediction: Liquid ammonia analysts from Business Society believe that the supply and demand pattern of the ammonia market will continue to shift from tightening to easing in the short term, and prices will continue to be weak in the near future.