On February 5th, adipic acid remained stable in the East China region, and today’s price remained relatively stable compared to the previous weekend. Dealers often report high levels of exploratory behavior. The price of raw material pure benzene has stabilized and rebounded, with increased cost support. At present, the pressure on supply and demand is average, and manufacturers are still in the process of reducing inventory. Downstream pre holiday stocking is still ongoing, and supply and demand remain stable. Today, the mainstream market prices are: 9700-9850 yuan/ton for Shandong sources and 9800-9900 yuan/ton for Jiangsu sources.

In the future market forecast, Business Society predicts that there will still be support for the cost side, and the supply and demand of adipic acid will remain stable before the holiday, with prices mainly maintaining a narrow adjustment.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of February 4, 2024, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7750 yuan/ton. Compared with January 31, 2024 (reference price of butanone was 7650 yuan/ton), the price increased by 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the first two months of February, the overall domestic butanone market showed a slight upward trend. At present, there are still some factories downstream of butanone that are stocking up before the holiday, providing certain support to the market in terms of demand. The overall supply pressure of the butanone market is relatively small, and the supply and demand transmission of butanone is relatively stable. Some factories have good shipments, and the shipment price of butanone has been increased by about 100-200 yuan/ton. As of February 4th, the domestic market price of butanone is around 7500-7900 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

Currently, the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, and with logistics shutdowns in many domestic regions, the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is gradually becoming quiet and mild. Business Society butanone data analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mostly operate steadily, with limited overall fluctuations in the market. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 2507 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2506 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.04% in price and a year-on-year decrease of 0.85% in price. On February 2nd, the baking soda commodity index was 166.33, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.47% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 88.43% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of baking soda is consolidating and downstream markets are purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is consolidating, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2200-2700 yuan/ton. According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash has been consolidating this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2380 yuan/ton, and the average market price on the weekend was 2370 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%, a decrease of 12.35% compared to the same period last year.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent consolidation of baking soda prices, the recent consolidation of upstream raw material soda ash, and the recent stocking of pharmaceutical, textile, and food downstream of baking soda before the Spring Festival, as well as demand based procurement, is a game of supply and demand. Overall, it is expected that the consolidation of baking soda prices will be the main trend in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

In January, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, as of January 31st, the price of acetic anhydride was 5912.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.50% compared to January 20th, which was 5825 yuan/ton. Compared to January 1st, the price of acetic anhydride was stable at 5912.50 yuan/ton. Demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell. Yankuang Lunan acetic anhydride equipment stopped short, and downstream customers stocked up before the Spring Festival, resulting in an increase in the price of acetic anhydride. In January, the price of acetic anhydride first fell and then rose.

In January, the price of acetic acid first fell and then rose

According to the analysis system of the acetic acid market in Shengyishe, as of January 31st, the price of acetic acid was 3300 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.12% compared to the 3200 yuan/ton price on January 1st. In January, several acetic acid manufacturers in Ningxia, Shandong, and Hebei experienced equipment shutdowns or load reductions, leading to a tightening of acetic acid supply and an increase in acetic acid prices.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society Acetic Anhydride Data, the price of acetic acid increased in January, leading to an increase in the cost of acetic anhydride; As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride are operating at a low level, resulting in poor demand for acetic anhydride and significant downward pressure on it; The Yankuang Lunan acetic anhydride equipment briefly stopped, resulting in a decrease in acetic anhydride supply. Overall, the tight supply of acetic anhydride and rising costs, coupled with weak demand for acetic anhydride, are expected to result in weak and stable prices in the future.

Aluminum prices slightly declined in January

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 31, 2024, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market was 18980 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.13% compared to the aluminum price of 19563.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (January 1). Aluminum prices have almost unilaterally declined in the first half of the year. On the one hand, due to the approaching holiday, downstream processing enterprises have gradually weakened their production, and spot demand has decreased, leading to an increase in the proportion of ingots in the industry; On the other hand, due to the influence of aluminum oxide prices, aluminum prices fluctuate accordingly.

In the long term, the current price is in the “M” type price state since the second half of 2023, and the price level has been in the upper middle level in the past year.

Fundamentals of supply and demand

In terms of demand, due to the impact of the off-season of consumption, downstream production in China has continued to decline, and there has been no significant improvement in aluminum profile orders. Downstream demand for building profiles is weak, while the production of photovoltaic and automotive profiles in the industrial profile sector is stable.

There are signs of a turning point in social inventory within the month

In late January, social inventory shifted from being depleted on a weekly basis to accumulating on a weekly basis. As of January 29th, the mainstream social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in China is 444000 tons, which is 421000 tons higher than the social inventory on January 22nd and has accumulated 23000 tons; On January 2nd, the social inventory was 446000 tons, and the social inventory in mainstream regions fell first and then rose during the month. Approaching the off-season of downstream demand (the aluminum processing industry is expected to be on holiday from the end of January to mid February), it is expected that demand may continue to weaken, and a turning point in social inventory may come in the short term.

However, social inventory is currently at a low absolute value, with year-on-year data showing a low level for the same period in nearly seven years.

Aluminum prices fluctuated horizontally in February

At the end of January, there were signs of stabilization in aluminum prices. On the one hand, this was due to the aluminum price falling below 19000 yuan/ton, stimulating downstream pre holiday stocking demand. On the other hand, the news about aluminum oxide was positive, and cost support was strengthened.

Inventory data may experience periodic accumulation in February. Currently, aluminum inventory is relatively low year-on-year, and the accumulation phenomenon is delayed and better than expected. At present, the inflow and storage of water in Yunnan during the dry season are better than in previous years, and the possibility of a second round of reduction in production of electrolytic aluminum in the local area has decreased. The long short game intensifies, and the short-term aluminum price fluctuates strongly.