The price of ortho xylene fell in November

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of November 7th, the price of ortho xylene was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton or 2.44% compared to the 8200 yuan/ton price of ortho xylene on October 31st. The cost of ortho benzene continues to decrease; Downstream demand remains weak, and the price of ortho xylene fell in November.

Raw material mixed with xylene stopped falling and rebounded

According to the market analysis system of mixed xylene products in the Business Society, as of November 7th, the price of mixed xylene was 7350 yuan/ton, which rebounded from the price of mixed xylene at 7330 yuan/ton as of October 31st last month, with an increase of 0.27%. Crude oil prices fluctuate and consolidate, naphtha prices fluctuate and rise, mixed xylene costs rise, mixed xylene prices stop falling and rise, raw material costs rise, and the upward momentum of orthoxylene increases.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market fluctuates and falls

According to the market analysis system for phthalic anhydride products in the Business Society, as of November 7th, the quotation for neighboring phthalic anhydride was 7612.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.72% compared to the price of 7825 yuan/ton as of October 31st last month. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride remains at 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride is sufficient. The price of industrial naphthalene has increased, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price difference between ortho phthalic anhydride and nefa phthalic anhydride is approaching, and the market for ortho phthalic anhydride is favorable. The price of phthalic anhydride has stopped falling and stabilized.

Future prospects

Analysts from Business Society’s adjacent xylene data believe that in November, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and the cost of adjacent xylene increased; The price of phthalic anhydride has stabilized, the market for phthalic anhydride has rebounded, and downstream demand for neighboring benzene has stabilized. It is expected that in the future, the price of neighboring benzene will fluctuate and stabilize.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, with an average market price of 162.50 yuan/ton. Over the weekend, prices fell by 12.95% year-on-year. On November 5th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.76, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 68.99% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 137.82% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have temporarily stabilized this week, and manufacturers’ inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently seen a slight increase, with good cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1728.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1751.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.30%. The weekend price fell by 12.93% year-on-year. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level. The market price is 687.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 28.20% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid November, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market slightly declined over the weekend, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets are temporarily stable, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations in the hydrochloric acid market have been the main trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic spandex market experienced a decline this week (October 30th November 3rd). As of November 3rd, the price of 40D spandex was 33750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.46% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 11.18%. The industry’s starting point remained around 72%.

This week, the domestic pure MDI market continued to rise, with an average price of 21750 yuan/ton in the East China market as of November 3, an increase of over 1000 yuan/ton compared to the end of October. The overall domestic supply has once again decreased, with scarce imported goods and a shortage of spot goods, causing traders to hesitate to sell and drive up prices. In the short term, the tight spot situation is difficult to alleviate, and the industry remains bullish, with downstream wait-and-see purchasing mainly based on demand. With the continuous decline of raw material BDO, the cost support for PTMEG has decreased, and the market is operating in a stalemate. The quotation for 1800 molecular weight remains at 21000 yuan/ton, and the overall operating rate of the industry is around 83.4%.

With the end of October, the traditional peak season for textiles has also come to an end, and downstream textile enterprises are still mainly engaged in on-demand procurement, with insufficient transaction performance. Currently, the comprehensive operating rate of domestic Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms is around 75%. The issuance of domestic and foreign trade orders is average, with domestic trade orders mainly focusing on winter fabric orders, while foreign trade orders are still dominated by sporadic small orders from some brands. Adding to the difficulties in cash flow for manufacturers, terminal consumers hold a pessimistic attitude.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current shortage of pure MDI raw materials in stock still leaves room for exploration in the market, and there is still good support for the cost side of spandex. But as the peak season for terminal textiles ends, demand further shrinks. Under the drag of demand, the price of spandex will continue to decline.

According to the bulk list data of Business Society, as of October 31, 2023, the reference price for diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5440 yuan/ton, a decrease of 160 yuan/ton or 2.86% compared to the price on September 30, 2023 (reference price for diethylene glycol is 5600 yuan/ton).

From the data monitoring of the Business Society, it can be seen that the domestic diethylene glycol market experienced frequent fluctuations in October, with weak and volatile prices. This month, the supply and demand side of diethylene glycol performed reasonably well. During the National Day holiday, the accumulation of stocks was less than expected, and port congestion caused delays in import shipments. The main port inventory gradually decreased, and domestic equipment maintenance and construction remained low. The supply side supported the market. Although port shipments remained at a good level, there was no significant increase in real demand. Diethylene glycol was less affected by fundamentals, and the trend of international crude oil fluctuated more significantly with macroeconomic fluctuations, The market mentality has adjusted accordingly, with prices mainly fluctuating due to weak trends.

In the early part of this month, during the National Day holiday, international crude oil plummeted, and commodities generally showed weakness, with diethylene glycol being mainly affected by its weak and fluctuating trend. After the holiday, the port inventory accumulation did not meet expectations, the supply side pressure was not high, and the demand performance was relatively stable. The market was mainly influenced by macro factors, and the mentality of the operators was average, with prices adjusting weakly in a narrow range. The market rose first and then fell in the middle of the month. The number of port arrivals is limited, the number of shipments has increased, and inventory is showing a downward trend. However, the overall supply and demand pattern has not changed much, and market sentiment is mainly adjusted. There is a lack of clear information guidance, and market prices remain fluctuating. In the second half of the year, the market underwent a weak adjustment, with limited arrival of ships at ports and delayed arrival of some cargo. Inventory at the main port remained low, while domestic plant operations remained low. The supply side provided some support to the market. Although the shipment situation at the port was good, the overall downstream demand remained flat. At the same time, international crude oil prices were unstable, and cost side support was limited. As the market approached the end of the month, the mentality was average, and prices remained weak and volatile.

At present, port inventory remains low, with some imported shipments delayed in October and an increase in expected arrival in November. Domestic production starts are relatively low, and overall supply pressure has not changed much. The downstream unsaturated resin and polyester markets are gradually entering a period of stable demand. At the same time, the international crude oil trend is fluctuating and unstable, which also has a certain impact on the commodity market and diethylene glycol. Business Society’s diethylene glycol analyst believes that overall, the domestic diethylene glycol market will maintain a volatile trend in November, with limited upward adjustment space. We will continue to pay attention to macro, inventory, and demand follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the market trend of natural rubber has risen first and then declined this month. The spot rubber market price in China’s natural rubber market was around 12540 yuan/ton on the first day, and around 12890 yuan/ton on the 31st, with a monthly increase of 2.79%.

Factors affecting this month:

1. Rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas has gradually eased, and inventory at Qingdao Port continues to decline

On the supply side, it is still in the peak season of rubber cutting, and the production area is affected by more periodic rainfall. Rainfall in Thailand, Vietnam and other production areas has slightly eased, and the overall production of raw materials is hindered; The rainfall in Hainan production area has eased, and the glue production is gradually normal; The weather in the Yunnan production area is normal, and the production of raw materials is normal. Recently, the production of raw materials has gradually recovered, and the cost support for natural rubber is limited. Downstream wait-and-see sentiment is strong. The Qingdao Free Trade Zone continues to reduce inventory and inventory continues to decline, which has a certain boosting effect on the Tianjiao market.

2. High operating rate of tire enterprises

On the demand side, the overall operating rate of rubber tire enterprises has slightly increased; The operating rate of semi steel tire enterprises has slightly increased, and overall shipments are good. Currently, most enterprises still have a shortage of snow tires. As enterprises gradually schedule production, the shortage phenomenon will be alleviated; The operating rate of all steel tires has remained basically stable, prices have been stable, and production has been scheduled. Recently, inventory has increased, and currently the main focus is on destocking.

Future Market Forecast:

Regarding the future market, the recent rainfall in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has eased, and the output of raw materials continues to rise, and the purchase price may decline; At present, the export situation of tire enterprises is good, and there is a certain demand and positive support for the natural rubber market in the short term; In addition, with the recent decline in futures trading, the price of natural rubber is weak. It is expected that the natural rubber market will be dominated by fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.