According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China has risen three times this week (2.23-2.26). The market average price at the beginning of the week was 378420 yuan/ton, and as of February 26, the market average price was 416620 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.56%.
With the quiet end of the Spring Festival holiday, the performance of tin prices has been particularly remarkable, achieving a strong trend of three consecutive increases in just a few days after the holiday.
Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, most mainstream smelting enterprises in China implemented shutdown and maintenance measures according to the established plan. Based on this situation, it is expected that the tin ingot production will decline to a certain extent that month. Despite the market’s expectation of a slow recovery in Myanmar’s mineral imports, the tightening of quota policies in Indonesia has undoubtedly created rigid constraints on tin ore supply.
supply side
There are hidden concerns on the supply side, and the market’s expectation that Indonesia may introduce a policy to ban the export of tin raw materials, coupled with the risk of tin mine supply in the Democratic Republic of Congo, further exacerbates the market’s worries about the tightening of tin supply.
demand side
After the holiday, traders and downstream industries such as solder, electronics, and photovoltaics will gradually resume work and production. In this situation, the market’s rigid demand for procurement is expected to gradually rebound. However, given that tin prices are still at historically high levels, this may continue to have a restraining effect on downstream companies’ willingness to stock up and procurement efforts, and the process of demand recovery may be relatively slow.
In the spot market, the current circulation of spot goods is relatively limited, and prices generally show a rising trend. Among the downstream solder enterprises, most are still in a holiday state, and only some have resumed work. However, they are still in the final stage of equipment debugging and have not yet fully started actual production. Those enterprises that have resumed production are mostly consuming inventory before the Spring Festival, prioritizing the processing of pre holiday orders, and have a very low willingness to meet new procurement needs.
comprehensive analysis
Short term tin prices are expected to maintain high volatility, and the market needs to closely monitor the actual resumption pace of downstream enterprises after the holiday, the strong demand for replenishment, and the specific implementation of Indonesia’s export policies.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province rose this week (2.12-2.25), with an average market price of 16450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16550 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.61%.
Compared to before the holiday, the price of Fugu magnesium ingots showed a slight upward trend, and after the holiday, the magnesium market as a whole showed a pattern of “stable prices trending upwards, and a quiet trading atmosphere”. The pace of downstream enterprises resuming work is relatively slow, and the market is filled with a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Although there has been an increase in market inquiry activities, the actual purchasing willingness is relatively low, and there is no obvious sign of recovery in terminal demand.
supply side
Although inventory has accumulated to a certain extent during the holiday period, manufacturers’ willingness to ship at low prices is not strong, and quotations remain firm. Processing costs for some magnesium alloys have also slightly increased.
Demand side:
The demand side is in a “gradual recovery” state, and most enterprises are mainly digesting their previous inventory. The inquiry and trading atmosphere is relatively low, and the game between supply and demand is in a stalemate. The magnesium market is temporarily maintaining a stable operating trend.
Cost side:
Although the price of 75% silicon iron in Fugu area remained stable compared to before the holiday, the overall market showed a weak trend after the holiday. The futures market has been weak and volatile, with prices falling to a recent low. As a result, spot prices have also been lowered. The price of Fugu blue charcoal is currently running steadily, but the market is facing downward pressure after the holiday. It is expected that the Fugu blue charcoal market will continue to show a weak trend in the short term, and the price may continue to maintain a stable to weak trend.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that magnesium prices will continue to fluctuate within a range and steadily rise in the short term. The subsequent market needs to closely monitor the dynamic adjustment of supply and demand, the resumption of work and production by downstream enterprises, and the fluctuations in raw material prices.

On February 24th, the domestic natural rubber market welcomed its first trading day after the Spring Festival. The main Shanghai rubber contract opened high and rose, with the 2605 contract closing at 17030 yuan/ton, up 4.38% from the closing price of 16315 yuan/ton on the last trading day before the holiday.
The spot market has rebounded synchronously, with prices for Thai cigarettes and standard rubber increasing. Domestic spot prices for all latex follow the upward trend of futures, and traders are actively quoting. According to the monitoring of Business Society, as of February 24th, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 16833 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.38% from the pre holiday price.
External market strengthens, supply side contracts, igniting post holiday uptrend
On the one hand, during the Spring Festival holiday, Tokyo rubber futures have risen by about 3%, and the prices of Thai raw materials such as glue and cup glue have also increased. As of February 24th, the price of Thai glue was 67.00 baht/kg, an increase of 9.84% from the pre holiday price of 61.00 baht/kg. On the other hand, major producing countries such as Thailand and Indonesia are gradually entering a low yield season, coupled with local rainfall affecting rubber production, resulting in a lower year-on-year output of raw materials. The domestic production areas in Yunnan and Hainan are in a winter cutting period, with a shortage of domestic rubber supply and an overall tight supply pattern in the market.
In addition, the domestic macro atmosphere is relatively warm, and there is a strong demand for repairing the valuation of natural rubber. The resonance of emotions between the natural rubber spot market and the futures market has driven up the price of natural rubber significantly.
Future outlook:
The natural rubber analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current seasonal tightening of supply and strong support from external markets will maintain high natural rubber prices in the short term. In the later stage, we still need to pay attention to the speed of downstream tire companies’ resumption of production and the intensity of Tianjiao’s inventory destocking.

This week, the melamine market has indeed shown a pattern of “stability oriented, narrow upward trend”. As of February 11th, the benchmark price of melamine in Shengyi Society was 5737.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.10% compared to the beginning of this month (5675.00 yuan/ton).
1、 Market dynamics
The recent stability of the market is mainly due to the balance of three factors: cost, supply, and demand
1. Cost side: The price of raw material urea increased in January, providing rigid cost support for melamine and limiting the downward space of prices.
2. Supply side: Although the devices that were previously repaired have gradually resumed production and the industry’s operating rate has rebounded, there has not yet been a serious oversupply pressure, and the market supply and demand are in a weak balance state.
3. Demand side: Downstream industries such as sheet metal and coatings have a slow pace of resuming work, and often adopt a strategy of on-demand procurement. The large-scale pre holiday stocking wave has not appeared significantly. At the same time, the export market performed steadily, but failed to provide an unexpected boost.
2、 Short term outlook for the future market
Overall, during the period before the Spring Festival, the melamine market is expected to continue to maintain a fluctuating trend. The solid cost bottom line and the strong willingness of production enterprises to stabilize prices determine that prices are difficult to fall deeply in the short term. The weak domestic demand and the lack of strong export drivers have also suppressed the potential for significant price increases.
The choice of the next direction for the market will mainly depend on factors such as the intensity of downstream resumption of work and replenishment after the holiday, as well as whether export orders can significantly improve.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 10, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6316 yuan/ton. Compared with February 6 (reference price of n-butanol is 6533 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 217 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.32%. Compared with February 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6663 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 347 yuan, a decrease of 5.20%.
Negative pressure on Shandong n-butanol market continues to approach downward trend
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in early February, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province fluctuated and fell. As we enter this week, the n-butanol market continues to decline, and the focus of on-site negotiations continues to move towards lower levels. Major companies have lowered their n-butanol shipment prices, and the price difference between high and low prices in the market has widened. The market low price has fallen to 6050 yuan/ton. As of February 10th, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong is around 6050-6700 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Supply side: Currently, the overall supply of n-butanol in the Shandong region is sufficient, and some large factories in Shandong lowered their quotations on February 9th, driving down market prices.
On the demand side, downstream industries such as coatings and plasticizers are nearing the end of their pre Spring Festival restocking, leading to a decrease in purchasing enthusiasm and an increase in resistance to high priced sources, resulting in a decline in market transactions.
Future forecast
In the short term, before the Spring Festival, it is expected that the n-butanol market will continue to maintain a weak consolidation or range oscillation pattern, and the trading center may continue to narrow downward. In the long run, after the holiday, the market needs to focus on the progress of downstream resumption of work and production, the trend of raw material propylene prices, and the operation of facilities. If demand does not recover as expected, there will still be downward pressure on prices.