price trend
The PA6 market has stabilized after a slight increase in the past week (January 31st to February 6th, 2026). On February 6th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society has risen to 10666.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.95% compared to the beginning of the week (January 31st, 10566.67 yuan/ton). The market trading atmosphere has turned flat as the Spring Festival approaches, and the overall price of PA6 remains strong due to cost support. The current PA6 price is still at a low level in nearly five years, down about 16% from the same period last year, and the overall profit pressure in the industry has not been fundamentally relieved.
influencing factors
In terms of cost:
This week, there has been an increase in maintenance at the caprolactam factory, leading to a tightening of market supply and a slight increase in prices. The benchmark price of caprolactam slightly increased from 9573.33 yuan/ton on January 31 to 9656.67 yuan/ton on February 6, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The strengthening of the cost side provides a foundation for the price recovery of PA6.
Supply side:
This week, the main PA6 factory equipment has been operating relatively stably, but some factories have increased maintenance, delayed restart of equipment, and slightly tightened market supply, which has to some extent supported the manufacturer’s attitude of raising prices.
In terms of demand:
Affected by the upcoming Spring Festival holiday, downstream end users of PA6 are gradually taking a break this week, resulting in a significant reduction in procurement demand and entering the seasonal off-season. Therefore, we maintain a cautious attitude towards PA6 procurement and mostly stock up on demand.
Market forecast:
In the short term, the PA6 market price is expected to maintain a high and strong consolidation trend. Follow up on the fluctuations in crude oil and pure benzene prices, as well as the pace of upstream and downstream resumption of work.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from February 2nd to 6th, the domestic ethanol price rose to 54113 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.19% during the period, a month on month decrease of 0.32%, and a year-on-year increase of 5.37%. The domestic ethanol market has risen narrowly, with slight regional differences. Driven by the rise in raw material prices, domestic ethanol manufacturers’ quotations have increased.
On the cost side, in terms of bio fermented ethanol, the high price of raw material corn forms strong cost support, while downstream chemical enterprises and intermediaries have significant pre holiday stocking demand, jointly driving up prices. The cost of ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
From the supply side, the main factories in Northeast China have generally reduced production. The supply of ethanol is affected by favorable factors.
On the demand side, the demand side is active, downstream and intermediaries are actively stocking up before the holiday, and the chemical industry’s essential procurement is stable. Driven by the sentiment of ‘buying up, not buying down’, the market has a good trading atmosphere. The tight pace of factory delivery has further strengthened the market’s bullish expectations, forming upward support for prices. The demand for ethanol is influenced by favorable factors.
In the future forecast, cost support remains evident, factories maintain low load operation, coupled with downstream demand for post holiday replenishment. Ethanol analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the short-term ethanol market will mainly focus on consolidation and observation.

1、 Trend analysis
Nickel prices have fluctuated and fallen this week. As of the weekend, the spot nickel price was 136250 yuan/ton, down 2.78% from the beginning of the week and up 7.26% year-on-year.
In the past 12 weeks, nickel prices have fallen 4 times and risen 8 times, with a slight correction from their high levels recently.
Nickel industry chain
Macroscopically, employment and inflation in the United States continue to slow down, but some areas have improved under the boost of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. There are still differences in the Federal Reserve’s future inflation targets for measuring employment, and it tends to be cautious in the short term.
On the supply side: Several manufacturers that reduced production in the fourth quarter of last year showed a significant rebound in production in January, coupled with the continuous arrival of overseas resources and relatively low prices of Indonesian resources. In the case of sufficient overall spot supply, downstream enterprises are not in a hurry to stock up and mainly purchase according to production pace. In January, China’s refined nickel production was 37700 tons, an increase of 20.06% month on month and 25.54% year-on-year.
In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand for electroplating is relatively stable, and it is difficult to see growth in the later stage; The demand for alloys still accounts for the majority, with good demand for alloys in military and shipping industries. Enterprises are buying at low prices, and the “Two Sessions” emphasize the long-term benefits of defense spending. Insufficient boost in demand for stainless steel terminals during the off-season, and steel mills still have some raw material inventory in the early stage, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards rising prices of raw materials; There is a strong demand for downstream ternary exports and pre holiday inventory preparation, but the purchase volume of nickel sulfate is still relatively small. Downstream acceptance of high prices is limited, and prices are expected to remain volatile
In summary, the boost in demand for stainless steel terminals during the off-season is insufficient, and steel mills still have some raw material inventory in the early stage, so they are maintaining a wait-and-see attitude towards the price increase of raw materials; There is a pressing need for downstream ternary exports and pre holiday inventory preparation, but the procurement volume of nickel sulfate is still relatively low. Domestic exports are hindered, and social inventory continues to accumulate, resulting in a recent convergence of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets. Overall, the recent macro sentiment and changes in mining expectations have affected the overall fluctuation rhythm of nickel prices. The macro market is currently stable, and there is no clear result of mining disturbances. Prices will still be supported before landing, and nickel prices are expected to experience a wide range of fluctuations and adjustments in stainless steel prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of February 5, 2025, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China is 6533 yuan/ton. Compared with February 1 (reference price of n-butanol is 6663 yuan/ton), the price has decreased by 133 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.95%.
In the first week of February, the Shandong n-butanol market fell back from a high level
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that in the first week of February 2026 (2.1-2.5), the overall n-butanol market in Shandong Province, China, showed a fluctuating trend. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market fluctuated, and on-site negotiations began to loosen. Starting from the middle of the week, the overall market focus shifted downwards, and the overall shipment prices of large factories were lowered, driving the market situation downwards. The low price fell to 6400 yuan/ton. As of February 5th, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 6400-6700 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Factors Influencing Market Trends
Loose supply and demand pattern: After entering February, the downstream replenishment of n-butanol is coming to an end, and the overall market demand is weakening. Coupled with the downward adjustment of quotes by some large factories in Shandong, the overall supply side pressure on the market is evident, and the transmission of supply and demand is slowing down, leading to price pressure and a decline.
Future forecast
At present, the transaction volume of n-butanol market has turned light, and downstream consumers are gradually resistant to the rising market price. In the short term, it is expected that the pre holiday n-butanol market price will continue to operate weakly and consolidate. In the long run, it is necessary to pay more attention to the post holiday market resumption situation and the new round of purchasing strength of downstream users.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic light rare earth market prices have continued to rise recently. On February 3, the Shengyi Society Rare Earth Index was 654 points, up 11 points from yesterday, a decrease of 35.05% from the highest point of 1007 points during the cycle (2022-02-24), and an increase of 141.33% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
Domestic prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all shown an upward trend. As of the 4th, the price of neodymium oxide was 820000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.47% in February; The price of neodymium metal is 982500 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.69% since February; The price of praseodymium oxide is 790000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 3.27%; The price of praseodymium metal is 960000 yuan/ton, with a price trend increase of 2.69%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 920000 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.55%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 755000 yuan/ton, and remained stable in February.
In February, the domestic light rare earth market prices continued to rise, and there was a strong bullish sentiment towards raw materials in the domestic light rare earth market. Macro news flowed out, and the supply and demand pattern of praseodymium neodymium products tightened, exacerbating market bullish expectations. Under the combined effect of insufficient market supply and bullish sentiment, the spot price of praseodymium neodymium significantly increased. In January 2026, rare earth producers raised the trading price of rare earth concentrates for the first quarter to 26834 yuan/ton, marking the sixth consecutive price increase and directly pushing up the cost center of downstream products such as praseodymium neodymium oxide. The outbreak of rigid demand and the vigorous development of downstream industries such as new energy vehicles and home appliances have driven an increase in orders from downstream magnetic material factories. The global supply-demand gap for praseodymium neodymium oxide is expected to widen to 9000 tons by 2026, and the supply-demand gap continues to widen, leading to a continuous rise in the light rare earth market.
After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s rare earth production share has declined from 90% to 70%, which has brought certain benefits to the domestic rare earth market.
Market forecast: Recently, the purchasing sentiment of magnetic material enterprises is average, and the supply-demand game in the light rare earth market continues. The supply-demand imbalance of praseodymium neodymium series products is evident, and the praseodymium neodymium market continues to rise; In addition, the long-term trend of increasing demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other end products remains unchanged. The penetration rate of high-performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets is expected to continue to increase. In the short term, against the backdrop of a stalemate between upstream and downstream games, the light rare earth market will maintain a high position.