On July 31st, the average market price in East China was 265660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.87% compared to the previous trading day. The mainstream price range for 1 # tin ingots in the domestic spot tin market is 265000-267000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 266000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2340 yuan/ton from the previous trading day.
Shanghai Tin experienced a volatile decline in early trading, with a slight decrease in the near to far month basis spread discount in the spot market. As of the second trading session, the price fluctuations were not significant, and the main contract of Shanghai Tin 2509 closed down 0.92% on the 31st.
The downward trend in futures prices continues, and smelters are determined to raise prices and have a strong reluctance to sell, which has restricted trading. In the spot market, the market is volatile, and merchants maintain a pace of shipment. Downstream market demand is limited, and only a small amount of replenishment is carried out based on rigid demand, with no significant changes yet. At present, considering the weak supply and demand situation in the tin market, some market participants remain cautious, and the demand off-season continues, making it difficult to achieve a significant increase in market activity.
In terms of follow-up, the August premium is around 200-600 yuan/ton, the Yunzi Head is around 600-900 yuan/ton, and the Yunxi is around 900-1200 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 11th, the price of 0 # zinc was 22404 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.73% compared to the zinc price of 22242 yuan/ton on July 7th.
This week’s market analysis
Compared to last week, the price fluctuation range of zinc has further narrowed this week, and the forces of long and short sides are still fiercely competing. The premium of zinc ingots has shown a slight upward trend, which reflects the improvement of price competitiveness in the current spot market, and the balance of market competition is gradually shifting towards the seller’s side. At present, the spot price of zinc remains in a volatile pattern overall, but the rebound of the premium also reveals that at specific time points or local areas, spot supply is slightly tight, and buyers are willing to pay a certain premium to ensure that they can obtain the source of goods.
Raw material end
This week, the overall processing fee for zinc concentrate remained stable. The trading activity in the imported zinc concentrate market is poor, appearing relatively quiet. This week, the price comparison between domestic and foreign markets showed a weakening trend. Although the processing fees for imported minerals have slightly increased, the willingness of smelting enterprises to receive goods is not strong, and their emotions are relatively average.
Supply and demand side
Although it is currently the off-season for traditional demand, the operating rates of some downstream industries are showing a month on month upward trend. Taking the galvanizing industry as an example, under the strong promotion of policies, some infrastructure construction projects have steadily advanced, providing strong support for the demand for galvanizing products, resulting in an increase in galvanizing production rate compared to the previous period. However, the time window for grabbing exports has already closed, and the real estate market is still in a downward cycle. These factors pose significant obstacles to the long-term growth of galvanizing demand, and it is expected that there is limited room for further improvement in galvanizing production rates in the future. The rush to install in the early stage of the photovoltaic industry has subsided, and the construction progress of related projects has significantly slowed down. The demand for zinc has also decreased accordingly, and the demand for zinc in the photovoltaic industry has declined. The production schedule of the home appliance industry has been lowered, and companies have reduced their purchases of zinc, resulting in a downward trend in zinc purchases by home appliance companies. The automotive industry has adjusted its production pace due to increasing inventory pressure. Currently, there has been no significant increase in demand for zinc, and the demand for zinc in the automotive industry has remained stable.
Overall, the real demand for zinc is facing weakening pressure. Although the operating rate of some downstream industries has increased to a certain extent, enterprises have a lower acceptance of high priced zinc and are more cautious in their procurement, mostly focusing on on-demand procurement.
Inventory end
This week’s zinc inventory data shows an upward trend. With the continuous strengthening of environmental policies, the environmental requirements for zinc smelting enterprises in the production process are becoming increasingly strict. The current increase in inventory may indicate an increase in pressure on the market supply side in the short term, which may be related to factors such as the concentration of zinc ingots produced in the early stage reaching the market, and the incomplete release and digestion of downstream demand.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that zinc prices will maintain a weak and volatile consolidation trend. The current zinc market presents a situation where supply performance is still acceptable but demand is relatively weak. From the perspective of overseas situations, the uncertainty of the global economy and sudden changes in policies may add new variables to the trend of zinc prices.

The butadiene rubber market slightly rose in July. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the butadiene rubber market price in East China was 12210 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.30% from 11820 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the lowest point during the cycle was 8600 yuan/ton. The price of raw material butadiene fluctuates and rises, causing the cost center of butadiene rubber to shift upwards; The production of butadiene rubber has fluctuated slightly, and the pressure on the supply side still exists; Downstream tire production has slightly increased, mainly supporting the demand for butadiene rubber. As of July 29th, the mainstream prices for Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze Shunding in East China were 12000 to 12350 yuan/ton.
In July, the price of butadiene fluctuated and rose, while the cost support of butadiene rubber strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 29th, the price of butadiene was 9466 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.19% compared to 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.
In July, there was a slight fluctuation in the domestic butadiene rubber plant. As of the end of July, the domestic butadiene rubber production started at around 6.70%, and supply pressure still exists.
Demand side: Downstream tire production slightly increased in July, and domestic tire companies’ semi steel tire production slightly increased from 7.00% at the beginning of the month to around 7.50% at the end of the month; The construction of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong has increased from 6.20% to around 6.50% by the end of the month. Mainly for the rigid support of butadiene rubber.
Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the raw material butadiene market will rise significantly, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will strengthen; Downstream demand for Shunding rubber is in high demand, and in August, Qilu and other Shunding units plan to shut down for maintenance. The pressure on the supply side of Shunding rubber will ease in the later stage. Overall, it is expected that the Shunding rubber market will continue to fluctuate and rise in August.

Last week (July 21-27, 2025), the market for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolved pulp, remained stable, with average cost support. The inventory levels of various viscose staple fiber manufacturers have declined compared to the previous period, but the supply side performance is still acceptable. Downstream enterprises mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish it on demand. The viscose staple fiber market is weak and stable.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 27th, the average market price of viscose staple fiber was 12940 yuan/ton, with a weak and stable price.
In terms of cost: Last week (July 21-27, 2025), there was little change in the market price of raw material dissolving pulp, with a weak stalemate. As of now, the price of domestically produced dissolving pulp is around 6700 yuan/ton, the price of outer broad-leaved pulp is around 800 US dollars/ton, and the price of coniferous pulp is around 870 US dollars/ton. The market prices of auxiliary materials such as liquid alkali and sulfuric acid remain stable but fluctuate slightly, with average cost support.
Abundant supply
The industry supply has declined, and the current daily operating rate in the market remains at around 75%. The inventory levels of various adhesive short fiber manufacturers have declined compared to the previous period, and downstream yarn companies are picking up goods as needed. The overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market has decreased, but the market supply is still abundant, and the support from the supply side is limited.
Downstream essential replenishment
The operating rate of downstream cotton yarn market equipment has slightly increased, and price fluctuations are not significant. As of now, the price of ring spun R30S in Jiangsu region is around 17100 yuan/ton, and the price of ring spun R40S is around 18300 yuan/ton. The market is in a traditional off-season of demand, and downstream cotton yarn market transactions are not ideal. Only a few models of vortex spun cotton yarn have slightly better export orders. Cotton mills mainly consume raw material inventory and replenish urgently needed goods, with no significant improvement in demand.
Future forecast
On the raw material side, the main material dissolution slurry market and the auxiliary material sulfuric acid market are generally stable, while the liquid alkali market may experience a narrow decline. Therefore, it is expected that the market price trend of adhesive short fiber raw materials will decline in the short term, and the cost support will be insufficient.
Supply and demand side: The operating rate of the adhesive short fiber market equipment may not fluctuate significantly, and some manufacturers have high inventory levels. Therefore, it is expected that the supply side support of the adhesive short fiber market will be poor in the short term; The terminal market is still in the traditional off-season of demand, with limited new orders placed. Downstream yarn mills are experiencing a certain degree of risk aversion and may maintain their demand for signing orders. It is expected that the driving force of the adhesive short fiber market from the demand side will be moderate in the short term.
Overall, the main raw material dissolution slurry market may be weak and stagnant, with sufficient overall supply. Downstream yarn mills mainly sign orders according to demand. Under the interweaving of on-site news, adhesive short fiber manufacturers may maintain their previous quotations. Therefore, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will remain stable with small movements in the short term, and the price is expected to be accepted at 12800-13000 yuan/ton.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the magnesium ingot market in Shaanxi Province slightly declined this week (7.14-7.18), with an average market price of 16350 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 16262 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.54%.
This week, the magnesium market showed a trend of first decreasing and then stabilizing. The mainstream quotation has been declining since last week, but when the price fell to 16300 yuan/ton, the downward resistance significantly increased, and it stopped falling and stabilized near the weekend.
Supply and demand side
On the supply side, due to the impact of extreme high temperatures, magnesium smelting enterprises are facing numerous difficulties in resuming work and production, while production costs have also increased to a certain extent. In this situation, companies generally have a strong willingness to raise prices, and only a few companies with tight cash flow have made small price reductions in the futures market. Recently, as market prices have stabilized, the market’s expectations for the future have become more optimistic.
On the demand side, downstream application companies have shown a high acceptance of current prices. However, some trading companies have a strong willingness to lower prices due to accepting orders at lower prices in the early stages.
Raw material end
The current coal market prices remain basically stable, while the price of blue charcoal has seen a certain degree of decline, and the price of ferrosilicon remains stable without fluctuations. However, due to the combined impact of high temperature weather factors, the overall production cost still shows an upward trend.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, it is expected that magnesium prices will show a slight upward trend, and the price fluctuation range will further tighten and narrow.