According to the analysis of the Business Society’s market monitoring system, on September 25th, the reference price for the domestic market of silicon metal # 441 was 9720 yuan/ton. Compared with September 1st (the market price of silicon metal # 441 was 9360 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 360 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.63%.
In terms of market conditions, “Golden September” is still good, and the metal silicon market is stable and rising
From the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, it can be seen that since September, the overall domestic silicon metal market has shown a stable and upward trend. The overall focus of the market is moving upwards. As of September 26th, the reference price for metal silicon 441 # in East China is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, in Kunming it is 9700-9900 yuan/ton, in Tianjin it is 9600-9800 yuan/ton, in East China it is 9400-9600 yuan/ton, and in Xinjiang it is 8900-9100 yuan/ton.
Analysis of Market Factors
In terms of cost: On the eve of the Double Festival, the price of raw material silicon coal remained strong, providing increased cost support for metallic silicon.
On the demand side: With the upcoming Double Festival, downstream users are gradually stocking up before the holiday, and the overall market mentality is good. The good expectation of demand side improvement is driving the market situation steadily upward.
On the supply side: In September, the overall operating capacity of silicon metal was relatively stable compared to August, and the overall silicon metal production continued to increase. Therefore, there is some supply pressure on the supply side. However, Yunnan and Sichuan regions are about to enter a dry season, and electricity prices will rise. In addition, there are expectations of continued increases in silicon and coal prices, and supply side shipments are still mainly driven by rising prices, providing impetus for the upward trend of the market.
Market analysis in the future
At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the metal silicon market is mild, and there is still a slight game between supply and demand. The transmission of supply and demand is in a tight balance state. The metal silicon data analyst of Business Society predicts that after the holiday, the metal silicon market will mainly stabilize and operate, and more attention should be paid to changes in cost and supply and demand in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA market fell first and then rose this week (September 22-26). As of September 26, the average market price of PTA in East China was 4639 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.28% from the beginning of the week. At the beginning of the week, due to the restart of some facilities and the weakening of crude oil prices, the center of gravity of PTA prices shifted downwards. During the week, with the rebound of oil prices, the recovery of commodity sentiment, and the increase in downstream pre holiday stocking demand, the trend of PTA has rebounded.
Specifically, the current operating rate of the PTA industry is around 77%.
The continuation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict in the international crude oil market triggered potential supply risks, which superimposed the decline of the US commercial crude oil inventory and the rise of international oil prices. As of September 25th, the settlement price of the November WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $64.98 per barrel, and the settlement price of the December Brent crude oil futures contract was $68.58 per barrel.
The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream polyester enterprises has rebounded, and the upcoming double holiday is approaching. Polyester and weaving factories have a certain demand for stocking, and the market transaction atmosphere has improved. There is some support for short-term demand. But the sustainability is not enough, and the expectation of new orders and load recovery in the future is limited.
Business analysts believe that the current peak season for traditional fuel consumption in the United States is coming to an end, and supply side risks have not been eliminated, with international oil prices mainly fluctuating and adjusting in the short term. The restart of PX maintenance facilities both domestically and internationally has led to a gradual increase in PX supply to a relatively high level, putting pressure on PTA costs. The demand side is improving in stages, but we still need to pay attention to the sustainability of the improvement in terminal order acceptance. At the same time, there is an expectation of an increase in supply and inventory, and overall, PTA will show a fluctuating and weak trend.

In August 2025, the import volume of phenol in China was 7800 tons, a month on month decrease of 50.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 62.32%. In August 2025, the export volume of phenol in China was 1400 tons, a decrease of 86.79% month on month and 78.46% year-on-year.
The main reason for the fluctuation in imports and exports is that there is no supplement to the ocean going contracts in August, and the supplement is mainly for near ocean goods contracts, with a monthly import volume of less than 10000 tons; The demand gap for overseas phenol has narrowed within the month, and China’s phenol export operations have decreased.
According to customs data statistics, the total import volume of phenol in China from January to August 2025 was 175400 tons, an increase of 23.26% compared to the same period in 2024; The total export volume was 40900 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.68%.
The import increment is mainly affected by the supply of Saudi Arabian contracts. The maintenance period in 2025 is in the second quarter, during which inventory and loading cycles are considered. The contracts for June and July will gradually decrease, and there will be no cargo supply in August; In 2024, maintenance will be concentrated in the first quarter, coupled with the transfer of goods to international markets, resulting in a significant reduction in phenol contracts in China. The reduction in exports is mainly due to the reduction of economic loss pressure for phenol ketone enterprises in 2025, and is also related to the domestic supply and price of phenol.
In the short term, the expected increase in exports is not significant. In September, domestic phenol spot prices were tight in many places, and inventory at Jiangyin port fluctuated below 10000 tons. Moreover, domestic prices were relatively high, and the advantage in export negotiations is not significant. It is estimated that there will not be outstanding performance in the month on month increase in September.
In the long run, it is expected that the ocean going contracts will resume normal operation in the fourth quarter, and the import volume will increase compared to the third quarter. However, considering the changes in the international supply situation, it is unlikely to reach the high level of the first and second quarters, and the annual data is still changing.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 19th, the price of 1 # lead was 17075 yuan/ton, fluctuating and rising by 0.29% compared to the lead price of 17025 yuan/ton on September 15th.
This week’s market analysis
In terms of futures, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a fluctuating upward trend this week. As of the close, the contract price was 17150 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton compared to last weekend’s closing price of 17040 yuan/ton, with a rate of increase of 0.65%. As for the spot market, compared to last week, the overall trading activity has remained stable, and there have been no obvious unilateral driving factors.
supply side
This week, the average operating rate of primary lead smelters has slightly decreased compared to last week. Among them, a smelting plant in Henan Province is currently in a state of production reduction and is expected to resume production by the end of September; However, smelters in Yunnan and Hunan regions have maintained stable production without significant changes. A smelter in North China completed maintenance and resumed production this week, while a smelter in East China plans to shut down for maintenance in the fourth quarter. As a result, production was slightly increased in September to ensure the supply of some long-term orders.
Recycled lead is currently facing three major bottlenecks: the continuous increase in environmental supervision, the obstruction of the waste battery recycling system, and the high cost and premium of raw material procurement. These factors collectively constrain the effective release of production capacity, resulting in the overall operating rate of the industry remaining below the historical average level. According to industry monitoring data, the operating rate of recycled lead production enterprises has shown a significant decline in recent times.
demand side
The weekly operating rate of lead-acid battery enterprises has decreased, mainly due to the impact of tariff policies and factors such as the domestic and international price ratio of lead, which have led to a decrease in export orders for some automotive battery enterprises, thereby prompting these enterprises to reduce the operating rate of their production lines.
comprehensive analysis
Recently, the price of lead in the market has shown a strong trend. Considering that the supply of domestic lead ingots may increase, and with the approaching National Day holiday, downstream lead-acid battery manufacturers may choose to increase their inventory reserves before the holiday. Overall, there are both positive and negative factors in the current market, and it is expected that lead prices will maintain a high volatility trend.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the 1 # tin ingot market in East China fell this week (9.15-9.19), with an average market price of 273480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 269330 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decline of 1.52%.
This week, tin prices have shown a fluctuating downward trend. As of the close on Friday (September 19th), the price of the main contract for Shanghai tin was fixed at 268770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5180 yuan/ton or 1.89% compared to last weekend’s closing price.
This week, the tin spot basis showed a significant fluctuation trend, while the domestic market continued to maintain a stable upward trend. During the mid week period, although the Federal Reserve announced interest rate cuts, it also released hawkish signals, leading to a significant cooling of market risk appetite. In this context, the trading atmosphere in the spot market is light, and downstream purchasing behavior is mostly dominated by rigid demand, with limited acceptance of prices.
Due to continuous supply side restrictions, the resumption of production in Myanmar, an important global tin ore supplier, has been slow, and the actual ore output has not yet reached the market’s expected level. As a result, the global refined tin market has long been in a state of supply shortage. On the raw material side, rigid constraints and the maintenance plans of most smelters in major domestic production areas have jointly led to a significant decrease in smelting operating rates. At present, the total operating rate of refined tin smelting enterprises in Yunnan and Jiangxi is still at a historically low level. In addition, the processing fee for tin concentrate remained stable this week.
On the demand side, although we have entered the traditional peak season for tin consumption, the overall situation in the traditional consumption sector is still sluggish, and the recovery of terminal demand is relatively limited. Specifically, the demand for tin plated sheets, tin chemical products, and other related products has remained stable overall, with no obvious signs of growth. In contrast, emerging industries such as artificial intelligence, new energy vehicles, and photovoltaics continue to develop rapidly and have become the main driving force behind the growth of tin demand.
comprehensive analysis
It is expected that the tin market will continue its weak supply and demand trend next week, and tin prices will show a fluctuating adjustment trend. The rigid constraint factor on the raw material side remains the key to supporting tin prices, while the overall demand situation is still relatively weak despite the driving force of emerging fields on the demand side.