1、 Overall price trend
As of July 6th, the benchmark price for imported potassium chloride trading was 3566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.46% compared to 3583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of July. From June 24th to early July, prices fluctuated upwards, with the 10 day moving average continuing to rise and prices surging to the high range; In early July, the market turned from stable to downward, with prices slightly falling, ending the previous upward trend.
2、 Interpretation of Mean Deviation Index
The 10 day moving average rose slightly before leveling off and falling back, with a positive narrowing of the moving average, indicating a slowing down trend rather than a downward signal. However, the upward momentum has weakened, and the price has entered a stage of horizontal consolidation, without initiating a downward trend.
3、 Analysis of Price Levels 5
From the price range of 5 levels, potassium chloride has dropped to a low level in the 10 day range, remains at a medium high level in the 20 day, 30 day, 60 day, and one-year cycles, and is at a medium level in the 90 day range.
The short-term price has fallen back to the stage low, but the medium and long-term prices are still in the high range, and there is still price suppression above. The short-term decline belongs to a high-level correction, not a trend oriented sharp decline, and the overall downward space is relatively limited.
4、 Fundamental driven reasons
1. Weakening of international cost margin: International potassium fertilizer prices have slightly loosened, overseas port arrival costs have declined, and the circulation of potassium chloride sources at ports is sufficient, resulting in a decrease in cost support.
2. Domestic demand has entered the off-season: the stage of agricultural field fertilization has basically ended, and downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have seen a decline in production, with only a small amount of essential needs being replenished. Market procurement demand has significantly weakened, and demand support is insufficient, which is the core factor causing price stagnation and decline. The accumulation of port inventory has increased the willingness of traders to ship, and some low-priced sources have lowered the overall market price.
5、 Prediction of future market trends
Short term potassium chloride has entered a high-level correction phase, with the upward momentum diminishing and the moving average continuing to contract in a positive direction, resulting in a narrow and weak market consolidation. At present, it is only a slight pullback caused by the off-season demand. Before the start of autumn fertilizer stocking, the market is unlikely to have a significant rebound.
In the medium to long term, there is a bottom support for the import cost of large contracts, and prices will not experience a significant decline. It is expected that from mid to late July to August, with the gradual opening of autumn fertilizer stocking and the recovery of downstream demand, prices are expected to regain support.
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