The price of ethylene glycol fell in July
The price of ethylene glycol will stop falling in July 2026. As of July 9th, the average spot market price for domestic oil to ethylene glycol traders was 4346.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.02% from the market average price of 4391.67 yuan/ton on July 1st; Compared to the market average price of 4291.67 yuan/ton on July 2nd, it has increased by 1.28%.
The price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo is mainly based on basis pricing, and the price closely follows the fluctuations of the futures market. In July 2026, ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded, and the base price of ethylene glycol for port paper cargo remained relatively firm. As of the 9th, the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port (starting from 500 tons) has a daily basis price range of+144 to+156 for this week’s spot contract.
The spot price of domestic coal to polyester grade ethylene glycol (loose water, tax included, self pickup) for whole vehicle manufacturers is 3630-3800 yuan/ton.
Changes in Ethylene Glycol Port Inventory in July 2026:
On July 9, 2026, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China was 427500 tons, a decrease of 90000 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main port of East China on June 29, which was 517500 tons.
Summary of the reasons for the halt in the decline of ethylene glycol prices in July 2026:
The logic of stopping the decline of ethylene glycol prices in mid to early July 2026 is concentrated in six dimensions: domestic supply contraction, continuous deep destocking of ports, bottoming out of costs, geopolitical sentiment repair, strengthening of spot basis, and downstream stocking expectations.
1. Domestic equipment is undergoing centralized maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in local supply
The integrated oil to ethylene plant has been shut down, and the operating rate of domestic ethylene to MEG production has dropped to around 50%, resulting in a significant reduction in monthly domestic production increment.
The coal to synthesis gas plant has entered a peak period of maintenance, with multiple sets of coal to synthesis gas plants undergoing centralized load reduction/shutdown. Although some Northwest coal to synthesis gas plant maintenance has been postponed, the overall non ethylene production has weakened compared to the previous period, and the domestic total production has remained at a low level of 53% -56%. The monthly total output has declined, and the supply of spot goods has tightened.
New production capacity deployment window: Large scale oil to gas production facilities will be put into operation in the fourth quarter of the year, with no new production capacity realized in July and no short-term incremental impact on prices.
2. The arrival of imports at the port did not meet expectations, and the port continued to deeply reduce inventory, resulting in a low inventory for the same period
The short-term increase in imports from the Middle East is limited: navigation in the Strait of Hormuz resumed in June, but the release of ethylene glycol floating warehouse cargo from the Middle East was slow. In early July, the forecast for Chinese arrivals remained in single digits for a long time, and the weekly port volume was low. The import increment was concentrated in August, and the total import volume in July remained weak.
The continuous depletion of social inventory in East China ports and across the country: the inventory in the main ports of East China is the lowest in the same period of the past five years; In early July, the port and national social inventory decreased synchronously, and the weekly destocking continued to expand. The market spot liquidity tightened, and there was no logic of accumulating inventory to suppress prices.
Typhoon weather disrupts delivery: In July and August, typhoons occurred frequently along the coast of East China, causing ships to be stranded and unloading to be delayed, further reducing the circulation of spot goods in the short term and strengthening the expectation of tight balance.
3. The cost side forms a clear downward bottom, and losses inhibit manufacturers from continuing to lower prices:
The oil production route is deeply losing money, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices: in early July, the loss of producing ethylene glycol from naphtha expanded to $180/ton, and the continuous decline in prices will force refineries to further reduce their losses, and export sales will be reluctant. The downward space is locked in by costs.
Profit recovery of coal production route, no motivation to sell goods at low prices: coal prices weakened during the same period, coal to ethylene glycol cash flow turned losses into profits, factories have no pressure to sell and clear inventory, and spot prices remain rigid.
Geopolitical fluctuations in crude oil, cost sentiment repair: In early July, the US Iran friction heated up again, and the market was concerned about disruptions in the transportation of the Hormuz waterway. Brent crude oil stopped falling and rebounded, while naphtha rebounded synchronously. The overall valuation of the energy and chemical sector recovered, driving a rebound in the cost sentiment of ethylene glycol.
4. The spot basis continues to strengthen, and traders concentrate on replenishing at low levels:
Spot prices have risen significantly compared to futures: In July, spot prices have risen by 140-165 yuan/ton compared to September contracts. The “near strong, far weak” pattern of tight spot prices in recent months and loose spot prices in distant months has been established, and spot prices have stopped falling first, driving the futures market to stop falling.
5. Downstream polyester off-season marginal improvement, expected early trading in Jinjiu peak season:
The polyester load has slightly rebounded, and the demand for essential purchases has increased: in July, the profits of polyester filament and short fiber processing were restored, and some large factories promoted shipments to digest finished product inventory. The production of polyester has slightly increased, and the consumption of ethylene glycol essential needs has slightly increased compared to the previous month, completely preventing a bottomless decline without demand.
The traditional “Golden September” peak season is expected to ferment: the market will trade in advance during the textile and packaging peak season from August to September, and downstream bottle and weaving enterprises will lock in forward raw materials at low prices, with forward buying orders entering to support prices.
6. Macro and financial sentiment turning point, short positions profit and exit:
Pre market bearish pricing: In June, the market had already traded ahead of schedule with all bearish factors such as cross-strait navigation, increased import volume, polyester off-season, and weak crude oil. In July, there were no new major bearish factors, and bearish funds concentrated on taking profits and leaving the market.
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