Price trend

Recently, the domestic POM market has been negative, and spot prices have fallen again. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of June 25th, the average factory price of domestic POM was 11675.00 yuan/ton, a 9.85% decrease from the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the methanol market has been weak and declining recently. In the early stage, the price of raw material methanol was weak and consolidated, with poor cost support and significant pressure on formaldehyde inventory, resulting in a weak and declining market. Recently, the methanol market has rebounded, and the probability of formaldehyde following the trend has increased. However, the current support for POM is not strong.

On the supply side:

Domestic POM companies have recently declined, with some maintenance companies resuming work in the early stages. Currently, the industry is facing a close to full capacity deficit. The high load situation continues, and the inventory pressure of most enterprises gradually accumulates, leading to a gradual decrease in processing profits.

In terms of demand:

This week, POM terminal enterprises showed weak stocking enthusiasm, with no improvement in operating rates and negative consumption release, which has limited impact on spot prices. Traders lack confidence. It is expected that as the temperature increases, there will still be expectations of a decrease in downstream load. Buyers will buy up instead of falling, with a wait-and-see mentality and flexible real order transactions.

Future Market Forecast

The POM market fell this week. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants remains high, and the pattern of abundant supply remains unchanged. Industry inventory pressure is accumulating, and suppliers are unable to support spot goods. On the demand side, downstream enterprises are operating at a low level and have a relatively low demand for replenishment, resulting in low actual transactions. How much profit is currently available on the market? It is expected that the POM market may continue to be weak in the short term.

The domestic phenol market has rebounded since June 9, and has continued to rise. According to the market analysis system of the business community, the negotiated price of phenol in East China is 6650 yuan/ton, and the average price in the national market is 6787 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 7.8%.

Pre holiday replenishment is intensive and downstream large depositors are bidding. Before the Dragon Boat Festival, the port inventory was relatively stable near 22000 tons, but there were large economic operations in the downstream, which accelerated the spot circulation of the phenol market. In addition, the terminal replenishment was concentrated before the Dragon Boat Festival, so there was little pressure for traders to ship, and the market trading atmosphere was benign.

The operating rate of the phenol factory is less than 70%, among which Shanghai Gaoqiao, Jiangsu Ruiheng, and Shanghai Xisa are all in a state of shutdown, and the operating rate of Shenghong Refining and Chemical was also slightly adjusted in mid June. Overall, the industry’s operating rate is at a relatively low annual level.

The factory continues to suffer losses and hopes to raise the listing price. Judging from the profits of the phenol ketone factory, the phenol ketone enterprise has been in a continuous state of loss. Since mid May, the theoretical value of the enterprise has entered a loss. As the market continues to bottom out, the loss has increased. As of the 9th, the market has stopped falling and rebounded, and the enterprise has also adjusted its listing price accordingly. As of now, the enterprise is still on the brink of loss, and it is expected that the post holiday loss will turn into profit.

Business Society believes that after the holiday, it is the end of the month, and there is not much pressure on contract volume shipments. However, it is cautious to follow up with high downstream prices after restocking for a period of time before the holiday. In addition, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phenol Ketone is expected to restart on the 25th, and the industry’s operating rate is expected to further increase. However, the import resources are limited, and the overall impact is not significant. It is expected that the phenol market will continue to rise slightly after the holiday, with discussions in the East China market ranging from 6650 to 6700 yuan/ton.

The domestic acetic acid market is weak and weak, with low raw material prices and insufficient cost support. Downstream demand on the demand side is not good, and purchasing in the market just needs to follow up. In the early stage, the acetic acid plant maintenance was carried out on the market, but due to light market trading, the performance of the acetic acid rise was weak, and the transaction center remained low. In the later stage, the maintenance plant restarted, the market supply increased, and the confidence of the industry was insufficient, resulting in a significant decline in acetic acid prices.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of June 20, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 2933.33 yuan/ton, down 8.81% from the price of 3216.67 yuan/ton on June 1, and down 11.11% month on month. As of June 20th, the market prices of acetic acid in various regions during the week were as follows:

The upstream raw material methanol market fluctuated at a low level. As of June 20th, the average price in the domestic market was 2091.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.24% compared to the price of 2161.67 yuan/ton on June 1st. The price of raw coal has decreased, the support for methanol production costs has weakened, and downstream traditional industries have entered the off-season, resulting in weak demand performance. The methanol market has become stagnant and organized, and the spot price of methanol has fluctuated.

The downstream acetic anhydride market is weak and declining. As of June 20th, the factory price of acetic anhydride was 5062.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.03% compared to the price of 5387.50 yuan/ton on June 1st. Upstream acetic acid prices have fallen, acetic anhydride costs have decreased, raw material support has weakened, acetic anhydride enterprises are operating normally, market supply is sufficient, while downstream demand is weak, market trading is sluggish, and acetic anhydride prices have significantly decreased.

In the future market forecast, the acetic acid analyst of the Business Society believes that the on-site acetic acid maintenance device is currently restarting, the market supply is increasing, and downstream parties follow up on demand. The intention to hoard goods is not good, the actual market transactions are limited, and there is a lack of positive information on the market. Under the supply and demand game, it is expected that the acetic acid market will be weak and organized in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, starting from June 12th, positive factors supported and terminal demand improved, with a slight increase in the market. On June 12th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 723 yuan/ton. On June 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 733 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.38%.

Positive factors support the recovery of hydrogen peroxide market

Since June 12th, bearish factors have been digested, and the demand for hydrogen peroxide in the market has improved, leading to an increase in the hydrogen peroxide market. As of June 19th, the prices quoted by hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have increased, with mainstream prices ranging from 700 to 750 yuan/ton, an increase of about 30 yuan/ton.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that with the arrival of positive factors and support from terminal demand, the market for hydrogen peroxide may continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2600 yuan/ton on June 12th. On June 16th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate was 2583 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate decreased by 0.64%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on June 12th was 3816 yuan/ton. On June 16th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3810 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.17%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium phosphate has been adjusted down in a narrow range, and the equipment of ammonium phosphate enterprises is operating at low load. The prices of raw phosphorus ore and sulfur have decreased, weakening cost support. There is a small amount of downstream stock of monoammonium phosphate, and there are relatively few new orders in the market, resulting in a sustained weak market. The supply of diammonium phosphate in the market is tight, and downstream restocking is just needed. The demand for corn fertilizer is approaching its end. As of June 16th, the 55% market price of powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2500 yuan/ton, and the 73% market price of ammonium in Sichuan region is around 4950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The 64% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong region is around 3780-3850 yuan/ton, while the 57% market quotation for diammonium in Shandong region is around 2700-3300 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

In terms of raw sulfur, domestic sulfur prices have fallen this week. The reference price of sulfur in East China is 826.67 yuan/ton. The mainstream price of solid sulfur in Shandong region is around 870-880 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 730-880 yuan/ton. The sulfur manufacturer’s equipment is operating normally, with no inventory pressure in the market, actively shipping, and less enthusiasm for downstream market entry. Purchasing follows up as needed, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. The sulfur market is organized and running.

In terms of raw phosphorus ore, the overall domestic phosphorus ore market showed a slight decline this week. Some mining companies in China that reported higher prices in the early stage have slightly lowered the price of phosphate ore, with a reduction of around 10-20 yuan/ton, driving the overall focus of the phosphate ore market to decline slightly. As of June 15th, the domestic market price of 30% grade phosphate ore is around 950-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from the Business Society believe that the market trend of ammonium phosphate has been weak recently, with the demand side continuing to be weak and downstream purchasing on demand. The raw materials continue to weaken, and the cost side support is insufficient. It is expected that the market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak in the short term, and the main trend will be consolidation and operation.