Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, sulfur prices in East China have slightly increased this week. On August 27th, sulfur prices were at 1070.00 yuan/ton, and at the beginning of the week, sulfur prices were at 1063.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.63%, an increase of 25.39% compared to the beginning of the month.

The domestic sulfur market is consolidating and operating, with high and firm prices. The demand for phosphate fertilizer in the end market is improving, downstream trading is active, and there is good support for sulfur procurement. Refinery supply is normal, and enterprise shipments are smooth. Some manufacturers have raised their prices based on their own inventory situation, and sulfur prices are generally stable. As of the 27th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong region is around 1080-1130 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1000-1160 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid price remained stable, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on August 27th at 266.00 yuan/ton, which was at the same level as the price of 266.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The demand for phosphate fertilizer is strong, and the downstream market is improving, supporting the demand for sulfuric acid. Acid companies have no inventory pressure, actively shipping, and prices are high and firm. Coupled with the support of raw material sulfur costs, the sulfuric acid market is stable and wait-and-see.

The market for monoammonium phosphate remained strong and rising. On August 27th, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2916.67 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the week, the average market price of 55% powdered monoammonium was 2866.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.74%. The phosphate fertilizer market is improving, and there are sufficient orders for monoammonium phosphate to be shipped. Most manufacturers have suspended quotations and stopped receiving orders, resulting in tight market supply. Traders are reluctant to sell, but prices are rising. Coupled with favorable cost support, the focus of monoammonium phosphate factory trading continues to rise.

Future Market Forecast

Business Society sulfur analysts believe that the operation of sulfur refinery units is normal, market supply is stable, downstream phosphate fertilizer market is improving, demand continues to be positive, refinery shipments are smooth, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to be strong. In the future, specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the beginning of this week was 3316 yuan/ton, and the price of potassium sulfate with a 50% content at the end of this week was 3333 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.50% in price.

The domestic market price of potassium sulfate also continues to rise with the price of potassium chloride, and the number of inquiries for granular potassium sulfate in the northern market has significantly increased. Currently, Mannheim potassium sulfate manufacturers have a large number of pending orders in the early stage, and some factories have continued to accept orders until mid to late September. Currently, the factory price of 50% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3250 and 3400 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 52% Mannheim potassium sulfate powder is mostly between 3400 and 3600 yuan/ton.

The overall supply of domestic potassium fertilizer sources is relatively tight, with raw material prices continuing to rise and nitrogen fertilizer prices fluctuating. The procurement of raw materials by downstream compound fertilizer factories is slightly difficult, and most factories maintain a “use and collect” model for potassium fertilizer, with cautious factory operations.

Prediction: The domestic potassium fertilizer market is facing tight supply, and it is expected that the market price may mainly show a slight upward trend.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of August 24th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 89000 yuan/ton, which is mainly stable compared to the same period last week. Currently, the mainstream price is around 89000 yuan/ton, mainly for contract customers, and new orders are not accepted.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. Last week, the price for the same period was 89000 yuan/ton. Currently, the mainstream price is around 89000 yuan/ton, and the overall market is weak and downward. Downstream replenishment is on demand, while upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is weak. In the short term, lithium carbonate will maintain its previous trend, and manufacturers will only supply old customers with goods, while new customers will not take orders.

Chemical Commodity Index: On August 23, the chemical index stood at 896 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 36.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 49.83% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Analysts from Business Society believe that the lithium iron phosphate market will operate steadily and weakly in the short term.

Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6176 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On August 23rd, the PVC spot market rose, and the upstream calcium carbide market was operating at a high level, with strong cost support. In addition, the upward trend of futures today has further boosted the confidence of the spot market. Overall, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market has improved, with an increase in inquiries. However, actual order procurement remains cautious, with downstream customers mostly watching and purchasing on demand. Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market may continue to lean towards consolidation and operation.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 22, the cobalt price was 261400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% from the cobalt price of 270700 yuan/ton on August 13; The cobalt price decreased by 8.38% compared to 285300 yuan/ton on August 1st. The arrival of cobalt raw materials in Hong Kong has decreased, and the supply and demand in the cobalt market have decreased. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are both weak, and the cobalt price has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the trend of cobalt prices has continued to decline this week, but this week’s decline has decreased compared to last week’s decline, and the decline in cobalt prices has a contracting trend. Moreover, the cobalt price has hit a bottom of 250000 yuan, and there is limited room for its decline. The cobalt price has a trend of bottoming out and rebounding.

The sales of new energy vehicles have decreased month on month, and the expected demand growth in the cobalt market has decreased. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has increased month on month, but the demand growth in the cobalt market remains the same; The import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased on a month on month basis, and the supply of cobalt in the market is expected to decrease.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the supply expectation for cobalt in the market has decreased, and demand growth is less than expected. It is expected that the decline in cobalt prices will slow down in the future, with low volatility and consolidation.