According to business news agency data, on March 10, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5330 yuan / kg, up 2.83% in the day, down 2.74% from 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and 3.96% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On March 10, the spot price of gold was 360.90 yuan / g, up 1.28% in the day, down 1.29% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and down 8.10% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Double the market and cut the precious metals to usher in a long short game point

Since November 2015, the rising trend of precious metals has reached its peak in August 2020, with the highest increase of 90-100%. After the doubling of the market, the price of gold has been falling all the way, reaching a new low in October, and the price of silver has also fallen to the low range in early January. Today, the price of precious metals both stop falling and rise. When the increase is reduced to 50% – 60%, will the price of precious metals usher in an inflection point?

 
Business analyst Ye Jianjun believes that precious metal prices usher in a long short game point. In the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, the demand for silver in the disinfection and medical industries, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase.

Recently, the price of silver is relatively stronger than that of gold, mainly based on two factors. On the one hand, the news of silver’s closing down, similar to Gamestop, boosted silver’s price to rise sharply in the middle and late January of this year. Looking back at the historical trend of silver’s price, we can see that silver’s price has been greatly affected by the fluctuation of investment sentiment, and the short-term speculative atmosphere with silver as the subject matter is more intense and the amplitude is greater. On the other hand, silver’s price has been greatly affected by the fluctuation of investment sentiment On the other hand, silver has a strong industrial attribute. In recent years, the trend of bulk metal commodities has been rapid after the year, and they have risen to the historical high in recent years. The strong support of silver price comes from fundamental factors. For example, the increasing demand for solar panels in the automotive industry and other industrial uses will boost the demand for silver in the future.

Short term focus

1. The impact of high commodity price correction on the sentiment of precious metal prices.

2. The impact of the US Treasury’s launch of a new round of US $120 billion treasury bond auction on the bond yield and the impact of us CPI data. If U.S. bond yields rise and investors are more optimistic about U.S. economic growth, the precious metal market will be under pressure.

3. Whether the investment demand is narrowed. According to the data of the world gold association, the global gold ETF outflow in February was 84.7 tons, which was the third net outflow of gold ETF in nearly four months. According to the data of the world gold association, the global gold ETF outflow in February was 84.7 tons, which was the third net outflow of gold ETF in nearly four months.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 9, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11866.67 yuan / ton, up 5.01% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, up 8.87% compared with February 9, and down 5.07% compared with January 1.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has risen since the beginning of March. At present, the price of propylene is rising, and the cost support of epichlorohydrin is strengthened. The market attitude of price support in the market appears, and the focus of market negotiation moves up. However, the downstream buying is just needed, and the market atmosphere is deadlocked.

As of March 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong has obviously picked up. According to the price chart of the business club, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It remained stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th. Today, the price generally rebounded, up 100-150 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 8350-8650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8350 yuan / ton.

As of March 8, the downstream epoxy resin has been running as a whole in the high level section. Bisphenol A, the raw material, has stopped falling and rebounded, cost support has been strengthened, and manufacturers’ mentality has been supported. However, downstream companies are cautious about high prices and maintain just need replenishment. At present, the price reference of East China liquid epoxy resin negotiation is 31000-32000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, at present, the holding companies are pushing up, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The inquiry is slightly general. However, supported by the high level of raw materials, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be deadlocked in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the price trend of cryolite market in Henan this week was stable. At the weekend, the average price of cryolite market in Henan was 6366.67 yuan / ton, up 6.65% month on month and 6.70% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic price of cryolite remained stable as a whole, the regional manufacturers’ devices were operating normally, and there was no obvious fluctuation in the external quotation. As of the 5th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 5500-6800 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 5000-6500 yuan / ton, which was stable compared with last week. According to the plant operation of manufacturers in Henan Province, Zhengzhou Tianrui grain Co., Ltd. has a capacity of 30000 tons / year, about 70% of the plant has started operation, Jiaozuo Minli Industrial Co., Ltd. has a full plant load and normal operation, and Zibo Kunyu industry and Trade Co., Ltd. in Shandong Province has an annual capacity of 40000 tons of cryolite, and the plant has no shutdown plan. At present, the cryolite market has sufficient inventory, the downstream demand is general, and the transaction is fair.

In terms of downstream electrolytic aluminum, this week’s price trend rose first and then fell, with an overall rise of 0.35% in the week. The main aluminum futures contract rose by more than 4% in 3 days, which promoted the spot market to rise. As the downstream gradually returned to normal, the aluminum consumer demand was better, the consumer side support was strong, and the aluminum market trend was on the rise, which had a positive impact on the cryolite industry. On the upstream side, domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week, up 0.20% in the week. At present, the supply of fluorite in the fluorite yard is tight, and the start-up of mines and flotation units remains low. In the later stage, fluorite prices may rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the operation of domestic cryolite manufacturers is normal, the market supply is sufficient, and the demand of downstream aluminum industry is good, supported by good news. In the later stage, the market of cryolite may be slightly increased, with specific attention to the market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of PS (GPPS 525) was 10700 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of this week, and 10866 yuan / ton on March 5 at the end of this week, an increase of 1.56%, up 19.41% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Styrene futures shock lower impact, strong market risk aversion, low interest in downstream inquiries. Profit plate continued to reduce prices and shipping, driving the market center to continue to move down, the transaction situation was general.

PS part of the ex factory price rise, driving some brands to move up the center of gravity, but the deal was weak. There is a certain pressure on PS inventory on the supply side, but the parking of Zhanjiang new Sino US PS plant and the parking of some PS production lines of CITIC Guoan can offset the increment of one production line restarted by Lvan Qingfeng. Due to the large cost pressure and the general resumption of work, the purchase volume of small and medium-sized downstream enterprises is small, and it is difficult to increase the volume of transactions on the floor most of the time.

3、 Future forecast

At present, workers are returning to work in early March, and the demand of small and medium-sized downstream is expected to gradually recover. Due to the large price difference between PS raw materials and recycled materials in northern China, or the impact of PS raw materials on the demand for recycled materials, it is estimated that the benzene permeability in East China market will be 10300-14000 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

The domestic propylene (Shandong) market held steady at the beginning of the week and fell at the end of the week, according to the data of the business club’s block list. At the beginning of the week, the weekly high price was 8544 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the weekly low price was 8373 yuan / ton, with a weekly decrease of 2.00%.

2、 Analysis and comment

According to the price chart of the business society, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It remained stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price fell on the 4th. Today, the price continued to decline significantly, dropping by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, the market transaction is between 8200-8600 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 8200-8300 yuan / ton. The impact of low temperature still exists in the United States and the capacity recovery is general; the impact of propylene in Japan is reduced and the capacity recovery is slight.

It is reported that OPEC + may extend the production reduction, and the crude oil price rose sharply on March 4, which has certain support for the cost of propylene.

This week, the price of PP rose steadily after the decline, with a weekly decline of 0.35% and a weekly amplitude of 1.06%. The futures market is general, with limited impact on C.

The price of acrylic acid continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 3.85%, which had a certain positive impact on propylene.

Propylene oxide market rose slightly in the second half of this week, with a weekly increase of 0.71%, which had little impact on propylene.

Epichlorohydrin market rose significantly at the beginning of this week and then stabilized, with a weekly increase of 3.54%, which has a certain pulling effect on propylene.

This week, the domestic n-butanol price plummeted, with a weekly decline of 5.29%, which significantly suppressed the propylene market.

Octanol trend this week fell at the end of the week, with a weekly decline of 3.52% and a weekly amplitude of 3.92%, which had a negative impact on propylene to a certain extent.

Isopropanol prices had a slight downward trend this week, with a weekly decline of 0.69%, which had a slight negative impact on propylene.

The phenol Market in East China was stable after rising this week, with a weekly increase of 1.16%, which had a slightly positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in East China was stable this week, with little impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

The propylene analyst of Shangshe chemical branch thinks: on the whole, the international production has recovered slightly, the domestic inventory is not much, the crude oil price has gone up sharply, the downstream operating rate is acceptable, and the effect of pulling up is not obvious, and the propylene has reached a high level recently, so it is expected that the propylene market will stop falling and pick up in the future.