According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of March 4, the average factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 8500 yuan / ton, which was 266 yuan / ton lower than that on March 1 (8766 yuan / ton), a decrease of 3.04%. Compared with the price on February 1 (reference average price of butanone 7116 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 1480 yuan / ton, or 20.84%.

Butanone market rose sharply in February, with a monthly increase of nearly 18%

After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic butanone market rose sharply. After the festival, the domestic downstream demand for butanone recovered slowly. The sharp rise in price was mainly due to the support of traders’ transactions and the increase in export orders. The inventory of butanone was low after the festival, and the price was all the way after the festival. On February 28, the average factory price of butanone in China was 8400 yuan / ton, which was the same as that in the butanone market before the festival Compared with the reference price of 7100 yuan / ton, the price increased by nearly 18%.

According to the business news agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in February

Product growth rate: from February 11 to February 28

Butanone ﹥ 7000 yuan / T ﹥ 8400 yuan / T + 1400 18%

Butanone ﹣ 7200 yuan / ton ﹣ 8800 yuan / ton + 1600 20%

Butanone demand is in a state of fatigue

On March 1 and 2, the market of butanone in Shandong continued to maintain a strong upward trend. The actual turnover of the market was general, the support of export was still good, and the overall inventory pressure of the factory was small. However, the domestic downstream factories’ order volume was extremely low, and the demand was mainly used as soon as they were purchased. In addition, in terms of raw materials, the price of C4 after ether dropped slightly, and the cost support for butanone was loose. On March 3 and 4, butanone’s demand dropped The ketone market was weak, and the factory offer price was lowered continuously. The daily adjustment range was around 100-200 yuan / ton. The transaction was still low, and the trading atmosphere was relatively cold. As of the 4th, the reference average price of domestic butanone ex factory price was 8500 yuan / ton, which was 266 yuan / ton lower than the price on the 1st of this month, a decrease of 3.04%.

Weak support point, short-term butanone market remains downside risk

At present, the downstream demand for butanone has not been significantly improved. Domestic traders are more cautious in goods preparation. In the future, if the international butanone plant resumes operation, the export of butanone will decrease. In the short term, the effective support point of butanone trend is slightly weak. Therefore, the butanone data analysts of the business community believe that the domestic butanone market in the near future will remain stable Save downside risk, specific market also need to pay more attention to changes in demand for downstream raw materials.

Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the domestic PA66 market continued to rise rapidly in early March, and the spot prices of various brands continued to rise significantly. As of March 3, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises was about 38100 yuan / ton, some of which were flat with the historical high, and the rising atmosphere in the market remained.

Cause analysis

There is no improvement in the pattern of tight supply of raw materials. The impact of crude oil, chemical and other enterprises shutdown caused by the cold disaster in the United States and the earthquake in Japan is still in the process. PA66 and its industrial chain related products are seriously affected by force majeure, and the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine continues to be low. The operation rate of adipic acid also declined, and the market supply was relatively tight. Some East China dealers reflected that they could not get the supply. At present, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is not big. Thanks to the centralized replenishment after the year, the pressure on the supply side has been released, and the prices of manufacturers have been rising frequently.

The upstream trend is strong, and China’s dependence on imported adiponitrile is relatively high. The current market price range of PA66 has been flat with the historical high. PA66 products such as Pingdingshan Shenma and Huafeng Group, which are big domestic manufacturers, have stopped quotation, mainly completed the early orders, and there is no pressure on inventory. The prices on the floor continued to rise, the dealers were reluctant to sell, and the operation was cautious. Downstream demand is dominated by rigid demand procurement, and the shortage of non major customer factories may be even worse. Spot spot spot less, lead time growth, rising atmosphere is still strong

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: the current domestic market of PA66 continues to rise sharply, and the prices of polymerization plants and carriers continue to rise. The price of upstream hexanediamine and adipic acid is high, and PA66 has strong cost support. The resumption of work in the lower reaches started relatively fast, and the passive follow-up of taking goods resulted in the recovery of demand in some industries. At present, the cost pressure of PA66 makes the price of PA66 remain high, and the rising atmosphere fills the market. In the short term, PA66 market guidance is clear, or will continue to be strong upward.

The market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber rose in February. According to the monitoring of the business society, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 11360 yuan / ton at the beginning of February, and rose to 13060 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 14.96% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month. In February, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber manufacturers increased for many times, and the market price rose rapidly.

In February, the demand for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was general. During the Spring Festival, the operating rate of downstream tire factories dropped sharply, which was basically within 30% of the festival. After the festival, the operating rate rose slowly. Some manufacturers began to work gradually after January 16 to increase the load, and the overall purchasing of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak.

The overall supply of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in February is not loose, and the supply is expected to decline in the later period. According to the business news agency, the Shunding unit of Sichuan Petrochemical Company was temporarily shut down for maintenance in February, and the Shunding units of Qilu, Maoming, Daqing and Dushanzi were normally started. In the later March, the Shunding units of Yanshan and Maoming had a shutdown and maintenance plan, and the overall supply side was expected to be tight, forming a support for the Shunding rubber.

In February, the price of butadiene, the raw material of cis-1,4-polybutadiene, rose sharply, and the cost side was more supportive of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of butadiene was 6056 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 8235 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with an overall increase of 35.98%.

Future forecast: business community analysts believe that the overall synthetic rubber industry chain rose sharply in February, the current international crude oil price adjustment at the end of the month, cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber may face a small adjustment in the short term. Later, with the increase of downstream operation rate, the demand side will support cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In addition, the supply side is expected to be tight. It is expected that cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to dominate after the adjustment.

On March 1, 2021, there were 3 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 4 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Rising products include hydrofluoric acid, R22 and chloroform; stable products include fluorite, R134a, aluminum fluoride and cryolite.

On March 1, the price of fluorite in the fluorine chemical raw material market rose. The price of fluorite was 2761.11 yuan / ton. The price trend of fluorite remained at a high level. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started generally, and some mines and flotation plants stopped. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight. However, the downstream market was stable in the near future, and the rise of fluorite price was limited. As of January 1, the price of fluorite in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and that in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

Recently, the price of some downstream refrigerants has risen, and the operating rate remains low. The demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the normal supply on the site, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has risen slightly. As of January 1, the quoted price of hydrofluoric acid market is 10611.11 yuan / ton. Recently, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is mainly stable, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the current market situation is stable The supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal. Recently, the market of hydrofluoric acid on the market is general. The ex factory price of some enterprises is stable. Up to now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 10000-11000 yuan / ton. However, people on the market reflect that it is difficult for the hydrofluoric acid market to rise sharply in the near future. Business analyst Chen Ling thinks that the market of hydrofluoric acid may remain volatile.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price of trichloromethane in Shandong has been rising. The overall demand of the downstream market has not changed much. The demand for trichloromethane is general. As the downstream market begins to stock up, the market price of trichloromethane has risen slightly. At present, the start-up of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipping situation of enterprises is flat. In order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future, enterprises bid for shipping. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 3000-3100 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerant R22 rose, the price of raw material chloroform rose slightly, and the cost support was general. Recently, the downstream gradually began to stock up, the demand side rose, and the market center rose slightly. Due to the stable price trend of hydrofluoric acid, the price of some affected refrigerants rose. The price trend of R134a is mainly stable and the market is relatively strong. In the near future, the start-up in the downstream remained low, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market was mainly volatile.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride rose this week. The average price of mainstream comprehensive quotation of potassium chloride this week rose from 2140.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2155.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.70%. Overall, the potassium chloride market rose this week, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 68.41 on February 26.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers Rose: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend was 2050 yuan / ton, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the distribution quotation of Anhui Badou potassium chloride at the weekend was 2260 yuan / ton, which was increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In the first ten days of March, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.