1、 Price trend

The domestic isomeric xylene market fell this week, down about 1.79% as of Friday, according to the data in the business club’s bulk list.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Product: influenced by the coming of the long holiday in Europe and America, the market trend of this week fell back last week, and the current mainstream price in East China is about 5800 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, the market is cautious. Compared with last week, the trading volume this week was average, and the port inventory slightly decreased, about 25000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil price is generally volatile. As of Friday, spot Brent fell 0.08%, Brent futures rose 0.33%, WTI futures fell 0.07%, and Dubai futures rose 1.51%.

In the downstream, in the PX market, the external price is about US $801-803 / ton FOB South Korea and US $821-823 / ton CFR China. Influenced by the long holiday in Europe and the United States, the downstream textile industry has entered the seasonal off-season of demand. It is expected that the PX market price will maintain the level of 6700 yuan / ton next week. In terms of PTA market, the price of external market is about 610 US dollars / ton, while the price of domestic PTA spot market continues to rebound slightly, and it is expected that PTA market will maintain a weak shock in the short term. In the ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene quotation is stable, at 6200 yuan / ton. The external quotation of o-benzene is stable, and it is expected that the future market of o-benzene will maintain a small fluctuation trend.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of business society, we will continue to focus on the market turnover and port inventory next week, as well as the progress of Sino US trade negotiations and the crude oil trend under the expectation of OPEC production reduction. On the whole, with the coming of the long holiday in Europe and the United States, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate steadily next Tuesday.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, as of December 18, the average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China was around 415 yuan / ton based on the quotation of sample enterprises in several mainstream areas, and the price was not fluctuated much compared with the early December.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the new orders of domestic phosphorus ore market are still poor this week. The market is light and weak. Some mining enterprises purchase sporadically in the lower reaches. Production is limited and prices are guaranteed. The low season is coming. The prices are basically unchanged before the Spring Festival. In early December, the prices of some large factories in Guizhou are slightly reduced. At present, the prices of 30% ammonium phosphate ore car in Guizhou are 340-430 yuan / ton; the prices of 30% grade phosphate ore in Guizhou kaiphosphate phosphate are 340-430 yuan / ton After the quotation of stone was slightly reduced last week, the price of this week is basically the same, and the ex factory quotation reference is around 350-370 yuan / ton; the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore ship board in Hubei is around 430-440 yuan / ton, the quotation of 28% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is around 390 yuan / ton, the quotation of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Liushugou is around 440 yuan / ton, the quotation of 28% ammonium phosphate ore car board in Yunnan is around 275 yuan / ton, and the quotation of Sichuan is around 350-370 yuan / ton The quotation of 26% grade high magnesium phosphate ore in Mabian area is around 250 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Recently, there are not many new orders in the yellow phosphorus market, and the on-site quotation is stable and wait-and-see. There is no transaction of new orders with low price. At present, the transaction of new acceptance orders in Yunnan area is near 17800 yuan / ton. The phosphoric acid market is temporarily stable, the raw material yellow phosphorus goes down, and the cost support is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, it is expected that the phosphorus ore market will continue to be weak in the near future.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on December 13 was 5683 yuan / ton, the highest price in nearly half a year, up 17.59% compared with last week, a rare increase in the near future.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4790 yuan / ton. After a week’s continuous increase, the price on Friday was 5650 yuan / ton. Recently, the price exceeded 5500 yuan / ton for the first time, up 17.95%.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

As of December 10, the comprehensive daily operation rate of glycol unit is 65.64%, including 60.96% for oil plant, 64.28% for coal plant and 98.7% for methanol plant. In December, new ethylene glycol units of Rongxin chemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical will be put into operation. According to the plans announced at present, Rongxin chemical plant is planned to be put into operation in the near future. Hengli petrochemical plant is expected to be put into operation on December 20, and the effective capacity of domestic ethylene glycol will be further increased, at that time, the supply of ethylene glycol will continue to increase.

Downstream polyester enterprises began to announce their plans for production reduction and suspension before the Spring Festival. As of December 5, the 2.63 million T / a polyester plant has been put into maintenance, and 5.72 million T / a plant will be shut down for maintenance later, of which 1.84 million T / a plant will be maintained in December. As of the week of December 5, the cycle operation rate of domestic polyester chip is 87.75%, that of polyester staple fiber is 77.73%, that of polyester filament is 77.6%, and the cycle operation rate of polyester filament is 0.3%, 3.92% and 1.3% respectively.

As of Thursday, the glycol inventory in East China’s main port was about 324100 tons, down 40300 tons from last Thursday and 4900 tons from Monday. Among them, 137100 tons were in Zhangjiagang, down 35300 tons from last Thursday; 40000 tons in Ningbo; 47000 tons in Shanghai and Changshu, down 30000 tons from last Thursday; 61000 tons in Taicang, down 16000 tons from last Thursday.

III. future forecast

According to glycol analysts from business news agency, at present, due to the delay in the arrival of cargo due to the closure of the Yangtze River channel, glycol port inventory continues to decline, and glycol spot price will continue to rise in the short term. However, due to the gradual improvement of the domestic glycol unit, a new unit will be put into operation soon, and the glycol supply will increase. The operating rate of downstream polyester plant is decreasing, and the purchasing demand is weakening. In addition, the delayed cargo will be concentrated in the port after that, and ethylene glycol will be accumulated in the main port of East China. Combined with the above factors, glycol price may fall after a period of higher.

I. price trend

Business agency: the market price of MTBE fell sharply this week (December 9-15)

The price of MTBE at the end of this week was 5716 yuan / ton, down 4.46% from the previous week’s price, according to the data of business agency.

II. Market analysis

Product: on December 16, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil is expected to run aground, the price of domestic gasoline market is slightly down, the bearish sentiment of MTBE market players is rising, and the domestic MTBE price is mainly down this week.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil price fluctuated, and the domestic gasoline market price fell by 0.92% steadily. The domestic gasoline market is not supported by holidays, and the market demand is weak.

MTBE Market: domestic MTBE prices in the North fell significantly in this cycle. First of all, the price of MTBE began to rise to a relatively high level in early December, weakening the downstream purchase intention; second, in many foggy weather, the refinery shipment was blocked, the MTBE market transaction atmosphere was significantly weakened, and the manufacturer shipment was difficult. MTBE manufacturers adopt price reduction promotion. Meanwhile, the market demand in South China is average, but the market price is mainly stable. At the same time, the price of alkylated oil in the northern region showed a significant decline this week, so the domestic MTBE market price fell this week.

III. future forecast

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency thinks: Although the gasoline market has declined, the decline is limited. The price drop of MTBE market this week is far greater than that of gasoline market. Therefore, the market price of MTBE will be stable next week.

I. melamine price trend:

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic melamine market this week ran smoothly, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week. On the 13th, the mainstream domestic melamine price was 5200-5600 yuan / ton. In a three-month cycle, it fell 3.74% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis:

Product: the domestic melamine market is running smoothly this week. The operating rate of melamine enterprises has declined, but the downstream demand is not good, and the confidence of the industry is insufficient. Most of the manufacturers are cautious in receiving goods, and mostly wait and see. At present, the mainstream price of melamine market in Xinjiang is around 4900 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Sichuan is around 5400 yuan / ton; the mainstream price of melamine market in Henan is around 5600 yuan / ton. The main quotation of melamine market in Shandong is around 5600 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the ex factory price (12.9-12.13) of urea in Shandong Province in the upstream of this week rose slightly, or 0.2%. The upstream liquid ammonia price (12.9-12.13) is temporarily stable, and the market trading is stable.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

3. Future forecast:

Melamine analysts of the business association believe that the price of raw urea rose slightly this week, the price of liquid ammonia was stable, and the cost support for melamine was limited. The downstream demand is general, and the market has no strong and good support for the time being. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic melamine market will be consolidated and wait-and-see.