With reference to the prediction of polypropylene production capacity and production volume, combined with the further increase of domestic polypropylene self-sufficiency capacity and the slow decline of total import volume, it is predicted that China’s apparent consumption in 2018 will be around 24 million tons, and China will be apparent by 2020. Consumption is expected to reach around 32 million tons.

From the perspective of consumption structure, the consumption of polypropylene is not limited to the fields of plastic knitting, injection molded parts, biaxially stretched film, etc., and the growth of special materials such as fiber, pipe, automobile and electrical appliances is obvious.

From the perspective of product substitution, the substitution of recycled materials for new materials is greatly reduced, and the import volume of waste plastics is reduced. Under the severe supply shortage of imported materials, domestic materials have become the mainstream source of goods, and new materials have replaced renewable materials, which is also the apparent consumption of PP. The increase in volume provides opportunities.

The proportion of downstream consumption regions

From the perspective of consumption areas, East China, North China (including Shandong) and South China are China’s largest producers of plastic products and China’s main polypropylene consumer. In recent years, the proportion of consumption in these three regions has exceeded 80%. East China, where the economy is developed and the economy maintains rapid growth, is the largest consumer area for polypropylene, followed by South China and North China. The four provinces of Guangdong, Shandong, Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the most concentrated areas of China’s polypropylene processing enterprises. There are many companies engaged in plastic processing. The plastic products in these areas are not only large in output, but also high in grade. The demand for raw materials is also diversified and specialized. It can be said that the plastics processing industry in these regions represents the current technical level of China’s plastics processing industry.

China PP’s production capacity is mainly distributed in East China, South China and Northwest China. Consumption is mainly concentrated in East China, South China and North China. Imported PP mainly flows into East China and South China. East China, South China and North China are major PP consumption areas. Most of the manufacturers set up distribution points in these three regions, and the trade is very active. There is also a small amount of commodity flow between the three places. East China-North China is usually close to the distance, usually using the mode of transportation, and there is more shipping between South China and East China.

First, the price trend

Recently, the butadiene market is in short supply and the market price is further higher. Business community monitoring showed that as of August 23, the price of butadiene was 13,150 yuan / ton, and the price rose by 31.62%.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: domestic butadiene market price is scarce, market supply is in short supply, and it is heard that the northern source of goods is sent to East China, the transaction price is 14100-14200 yuan / ton, downstream buyers maintain just need to purchase. At present, the supply of goods in the domestic market continues to be tight. Only a few manufacturers in the north are exporting normally. It is expected that the market for butadiene will be high in the short term, focusing on the downstream market. The market price of butadiene in Shandong is scarce, and the supply of goods in the market is in short supply. It is heard that the northern source of goods has been delivered at a price of 14100-14200 yuan/ton, and downstream buyers just need to purchase. The market for butadiene in East China is relatively stable, traders are reluctant to sell at low prices, and the overall market trading atmosphere is relatively light.

Industry chain: downstream, styrene-butadiene rubber: domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market rebounded, the industry’s offer has gradually increased to above the ex-factory price and a small increase. Butadiene rubber, the domestic butadiene rubber market showed a rising market. The overall offer price of the market rose, and some merchants offered a price of 14,000 yuan / ton. On-site sporadic merchant purchases, the transaction price increased. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue, dry rubber roads are narrowly adjusted, and downstream purchases are on demand.

Third, the market outlook

On the positive side, the supply of butadiene market is still tight, and the operating load of some private enterprises is low, and the supply price of some large areas of Sinopec is raised. On the bearish side, downstream buyers are close to the high-priced acceptance capacity of the US dollar and the RMB price, and the export arbitrage window is closed; the downstream synthetic rubber industry is in a downturn. The butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the market for butadiene will be high and the downstream market will be concerned.

People in the automotive industry can personally feel that the entire industry is experiencing a new round of unprecedented changes. Over the past few decades, with the ever-increasing shape and function of automobiles, various advanced materials have been applied to new designs and manufacturing. Polycarbonate (PC) is one of the most important ones.

The picture shows the polycarbonate concept car K2016 launched by Covestro

When experts realized that the use of lightweight composite panels instead of high-strength metals would still have high-speed collisions, and this phenomenon would be very common, the use of plastic windows and columns to solve the blind zone problem became Better choice. Because pedestrian and vehicle collisions are usually caused by visual blind spots. Polycarbonate is the only transparent product among the five engineering plastics, and domestic and international demand is growing rapidly, especially in the automotive market. At present, the panoramic sunroof made of polycarbonate (PC) on the market is increasingly favored by car buyers.

Sabic-IP of the United States pointed out that the use of polycarbonate (PC) can innovate the design and installation position of the window and the mechanical system to open the window, plus the polycarbonate (PC) is lighter than the glass, and in the event of a collision It will not hurt the advantages of personnel, so the promotion and application prospects are excellent.

Webasto, a well-known German auto parts supplier, shares the same view: the car’s panoramic sunroof boom is quietly emerging around the world. Take China as an example. As the world’s largest auto market, one out of every three cars produced in China will be equipped with a skylight or a panoramic sunroof. The high heat resistant polycarbonate can be directly vacuum sprayed with metal when producing the condenser and mirror sections. In vacuum spraying, the temperature reaches up to 200 °C. At this time, the surface of the product does not bulge, no fog spots, and no peeling. Due to the use of polycarbonate, the weight of the front lampshade is reduced by 0.5 to 1.4 kg compared to inorganic glass.

Compared to an equal volume glass material, the PC sunroof has a net weight of only 50% of its weight. As the concept of lightweight car has become more and more popular, Webasto believes that the market for PC skylights has great potential. According to Webasto experts, although the PC density is only 50% of the glass, the impact resistance of the material is outstanding. At present, the company has become the designated supplier of the Volkswagen Golf A7 car sunroof. The Volkswagen Golf A7 model PC sunroof is 98 cm long and nearly 1 meter wide, with a total weight of only 1.2 kg.

Although polycarbonate has excellent heat resistance, high rigidity, impact resistance, dimensional stability and good light transmittance, polycarbonate is required to be in polycarbonate because of its poor UV resistance and chemical resistance and easy to be scratched. The surface of the ester (PC) is coated to ensure excellent weathering and scratch resistance of the window. The current Exatec900 system, Momentive’s AS4000, PHC587C and AS4700F coating systems have been widely used in polycarbonate (PC) windows (eg Smartfortwo, Mercedes SLK sunroof coating), these coatings can meet The requirements of the automotive industry have proven their long-term stability in actual use. According to experts, in the next 10 years, new polycarbonate (PC) automotive window glass will form a market of 5 to 6 billion US dollars.

Recently, Pakistani Maritime and Foreign Minister Abdullah Hussein Halon said that ExxonMobil found huge oil reserves in Pakistan near the Iranian border, and these reserves even exceeded Kuwait’s oil reserves.

Halon said in a speech at the Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry: “ExxonMobil is mining oil near the Iranian border and is optimistic about oil discovery. As long as we can meet their standards and attract them to invest, foreign investors will be very interested. Pakistan is doing business.” It is understood that Pakistan’s current crude oil production can only meet 15% of domestic demand, and the remaining 85% are all imported. Due to the high oil prices in recent months, Pakistan often faces huge fiscal deficits and uses most of its foreign exchange reserves for oil imports.

The latest research by S&P Global Market Intelligence shows that despite the significant increase in exploration investment, the discovery rate of copper mines is declining.

Similar to a report released in May, the S&P study found that global copper exploration costs totaled $26.6 billion over the past 10 years, compared with a record high of $4.7 billion in 2012.

In the past 18 years, the global copper exploration investment was only 12.4 billion US dollars. In other words, the investment in copper exploration in the past 10 years is twice that of the latter.

Despite the increase in exploration investment, only 29 discoveries have been made in the past 10 years, and 140 million tons of copper resources have been obtained. And 2/3 of the copper resources come from four deposits: Pampa Escondida, Kamoa and Kakula, and Los Helados. .

From 1990 to 2008, 191 discoveries were made, with a copper resource of 862.8 million tons.

The S&P here refers to a deposit with a resource/reserve of more than 500,000 tons.

The survey in 2016 fell to the level before the 2006 mining boom, but began to pick up after 2016.

What needs to be alarmed is that there have been no new discoveries since 2014.

Standard & Poor’s senior analyst Kevin Murphy said that although the budget has increased, so far no new large copper mines have been discovered. In the next 10 years, the newly discovered resources of large copper mines can only increase to 245 million tons. However, the entire copper production chain has remained stable, and new capacity can sustain production in 2017 at least until 2020.

Standard & Poor’s believes that the concentration of mining companies in brownfield exploration is the reason for the decline in discovery rates.

The 1990s was the period of concentrated discovery of copper mines. Of the 220 major copper discoveries discovered in the past 28 years, 106 were discovered during this period, and their resources accounted for half of the discovered copper mines.

The copper mines discovered in Chile and Peru in Latin America since 1990 accounted for half of the world’s copper mines found in the same period. From 1990 to 2017, Chile’s copper mines were found to account for 35.1% of the world, followed by Peru (11%), the United States (8.7%) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (6%). During the same period, Australian copper mines only accounted for 2.6% of the world.

Standard & Poor’s warned that the period from discovery to production of copper mines is about 20 years. In other words, the new discovery of copper mines in the past 10 years may appear in the next 15 to 20 years. Unless the discovery rate can be improved in the near future, in the long run, the world will lack quality projects that can be put into development.

According to the S&P May report, the world’s top 15 producers saw a decline in production in March.

The International Copper Research Group (ICSG) predicts that global copper production will increase by 3% in 2018, and will remain flat in 2019. It is estimated that there will be a surplus of 40,000 tons of copper this year and a shortage of 330,000 tons next year.