1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 18th, the reference average price of domestic urea market was 2385 yuan/ton, which is 2.37% lower than the reference average price of 2443 yuan/ton on July 12th.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

This week, the domestic urea market prices have been running weakly. As of July 18th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 2220-2260 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 2260 yuan/ton, and in Henan region it is around 2240 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market currently has a relatively sufficient supply, with oversupply being the main factor. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains essential procurement, while industrial demand is low. The operating rate and market situation of downstream compound fertilizers remain stable, and the demand for urea remains stable.

3、 Future forecast

The urea analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the urea market has been weak and declining recently, with transaction prices approaching the lower end. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and the upward trend of urea is weak. It is expected that the domestic urea market prices will continue to weaken and consolidate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic natural rubber spot market has continued to be weak and slightly consolidated in recent days (7.8-7.17). As of July 17, the spot rubber market in China’s natural rubber market was around 14082 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.59% from 14166 yuan/ton on July 8. On the one hand, there is not much pressure on raw material prices and supply, and on the other hand, downstream consumers are resistant to high priced sources of goods, resulting in a narrow consolidation of the market as a whole.

On the one hand, in recent days (7.8-7.17), the increase in raw material supply in domestic and foreign raw material production areas has been somewhat hindered by precipitation. The price of natural rubber raw materials has remained stable, and the cost has provided some support for the domestic natural rubber market. As of July 17th, the price of Thai glue was 64.00 Thai baht/kg, slightly lower than the price in early July; As of the 17th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water-based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production areas is around 13600 yuan/ton, which is basically stable compared to early July.

On the other hand, natural rubber inventory is slowly decreasing, and the overall market is consolidating narrowly. As of July 14, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao bonded and general trade in Qingdao area was 477900 tons, a decrease of 3.07% compared to the previous period.

Downstream tire production has remained stable for the time being, with demand facing strong support from the natural rubber market. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, leading to a decline in natural rubber prices from their high levels. As of July 17th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 6.20%.

Market forecast: The current domestic and international supply of raw materials is gradually increasing, and the price of natural rubber raw materials is falling from a high level; In addition, downstream tire companies have temporarily stabilized their production and are cautious about purchasing high priced goods; Overall, the natural rubber market is expected to experience a narrow consolidation in the short term after a recent high-level decline.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8591 yuan/ton on July 8th, and the average price was 8485 yuan/ton on July 16th, with a price drop of 1.23% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 10537 yuan/ton on July 8th, and the average price was 10237 yuan/ton on July 16th, with a price drop of 2.85% during this period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8450 yuan/ton on July 8th, and the average price was 8275 yuan/ton on July 16th, with a price drop of 2.07% during this period.

Recently, the overall trend of polyethylene is weak, and the quotation continues to decline. Among them, the decline in high-voltage products is significant, with a strong trend in the early stage and a continuous decline in prices recently. The willingness of production enterprises to raise prices is gradually weakening. Part of the maintenance equipment has restarted, and there is an expected increase in the supply side, coupled with an increase in imports. Polyethylene demand is in the off-season, downstream production is low, and market order follow-up is limited; The quotations of production enterprises have declined, and the trading market has followed suit. We are cautious in offering discounts for shipments.

On July 16th, the Dalian Commodity Exchange polyethylene L2409 contract opened at 8370 yuan and closed at 8379 yuan, a decrease of 1 yuan, with a maximum of 8396 yuan and a minimum of 8351 yuan, a decrease of 0.01%. Recently, the polyethylene futures market has been weak and declining, which is bearish for the spot market.

There is an expectation of an increase on the supply side; The demand side is in the off-season, and the trend of polyethylene futures market is weak. Last week, oil prices fluctuated weakly, and under the pressure of multiple negative factors, it is expected that polyethylene may mainly fluctuate weakly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price trend of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has declined this week. On July 12th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.16% compared to the beginning of this month (11583.33 yuan/ton).

Supply side: Recently, the domestic price of hydrofluoric acid has weakened. The mainstream price for domestic hydrofluoric acid negotiations in various regions is 10500-11700 yuan/ton. Some enterprises have parked their equipment and are waiting for the market, but the supply of hydrofluoric acid spot is normal.

Cost side: Domestic fluorite prices have slightly declined this week, with an average price of 3741.25 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 0.33% from the early week price of 3753.75 yuan/ton and a year-on-year increase of 22.16%. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, and overall, the operating rate of enterprises remains low. The main reason is the tension in upstream mining, the continuous elimination of backward mines, and the difficulty in mineral investigation work for new mines. In addition, the national department will carry out rectification of fluorite mines in the near future, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Some mines have conducted safety hazard inspections, making it more difficult for fluorite mines to operate. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of fluorite remains tight, limiting the decline in fluorite prices.

Demand side: Recently, the demand for refrigerants in the market has been weak. Entering the off-season of July and August, due to the influence of rainy weather, the demand for hydrofluoric acid by production enterprises has weakened, and their purchasing enthusiasm has declined. The demand for hydrofluoric acid has been suppressed, and it is mainly for essential purchases.

Market forecast: In the near future, upstream raw material fluorite enterprises will face many difficulties in starting production, with a tight supply of fluorite and support for fluorite prices; The downstream refrigerant industry has entered the off-season with weak demand, which has weakened the enthusiasm for purchasing hydrofluoric acid. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid will continue to weaken in the later period.

This week, the price of phthalic anhydride has been strong and stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price trend of phthalic anhydride in the domestic phthalic anhydride market has stabilized this week. As of July 12th, the price of phthalic anhydride in the phthalic anhydride process was 8087.50 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the price of 8087.50 yuan/ton on July 5th; Compared to July 1st, the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose by 0.47% to 8050 yuan/ton. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7800-8100 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7450-7600 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: tight supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene fluctuated and fell, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride fluctuated and stabilized. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride also stabilized. This week, the phthalic anhydride market fluctuated and stabilized.

Demand side: The trend of on-demand procurement in the DOP market is fluctuating and declining

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of July 12th, the price of plasticizer DOP was 9912.50 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.75% compared to the DOP price of 9987.50 yuan/ton on July 5th last weekend; Compared to Monday, July 8th, the price of 10000 yuan/ton fluctuated and fell by 0.88%; Compared to the DOP price of 9862.50 yuan/ton on July 1st, it first rose and then fell, with an increase of 0.51%. The market for phthalic anhydride, a raw material for plasticizers, has fluctuated and stabilized, while the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The cost of plasticizers has also decreased, and the price of plasticizers has fluctuated and fallen this week. In the off-season downstream, manufacturers’ production has decreased, and the demand for plasticizers is poor, which has led to a decrease in support for phthalic anhydride demand and increased downward pressure on phthalic anhydride.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the recent trend of crude oil prices has been strong and consolidated, the price of ortho xylene has stabilized strongly, and the cost support of phthalic anhydride still exists; In terms of demand, the downstream DOP market has fluctuated and fallen, and the demand for plasticizers is poor. It is expected that the market for phthalic anhydride will stabilize in the future.