This week, overall supply remains abundant, fundamentals remain weak, and local inventories have also increased. The domestic acrylonitrile market remains stagnant and weak. As of July 18th, the mainstream negotiation for container self pickup at East China ports is between 8000-8100 yuan/ton, with high-end prices dropping by 50 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market is negotiated at around 7900-8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from last week.
Supply side: This week, the capacity utilization rate and output of domestic acrylonitrile factories remained basically the same as last week, and the overall market supply remained abundant. The expectation of supply growth continued to affect market sentiment, and there was no substantial news of production reduction in the short term. The market is weak and difficult to change. According to statistics, as of July 17th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories was 76.13%, a decrease of 0.07% compared to the previous week. The weekly output was about 83000 tons, a decrease of 0.01 million tons from the previous cycle.
Inventory situation: The fundamentals are still weak, and local inventory continues to rise. According to statistics, as of July 16th, the sample inventory of acrylonitrile factories in China was 49000 tons, an increase of 0.32 million tons from last week.
Demand side: The capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries of acrylonitrile varies, among which the ABS capacity utilization rate is 65.90%, an increase of 0.9% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises is 68.62%, which is 6.72% higher than last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity is 49.90%, which is 3.86% higher than last week. The overall capacity utilization rate has significantly decreased, and enterprises are purchasing raw materials on demand, resulting in a weakening of overall demand.
Cost aspect: The raw material cost has further decreased during the week, and the production cost of acrylonitrile has decreased, resulting in insufficient cost support. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8715 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -1.63%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -640 yuan/ton, an increase of 98 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Overall, the acrylonitrile market is weak due to insufficient cost support, abundant supply with growth expectations (restart of maintenance facilities at the end of the month and introduction of new production capacity), weakened downstream demand, and insufficient spot gas purchases.
| http://www.thiourea.net |