On April 18th, the domestic glycerol market prices remained stable. According to the data monitoring system of Business Society, as of April 18th, the benchmark price of glycerol in Business Society was 4500.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.41% compared to the beginning of this month (4437.50 yuan/ton).

On the raw material side, multiple bearish factors suppressed the oscillation and decline of the palm oil market. The production of Malay palm oil in the external market is in a recovery period, and the futures price has fallen. The demand for many domestic catering products is sluggish, and the market for substitute soybean oil continues to decline. The bearish sentiment is suppressed, and the palm oil market is constantly falling, falling to 8000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of Business Society, on April 18th, the benchmark price of palm oil in Business Society was 8038.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -2.45% compared to the beginning of this month (8240.00 yuan/ton).

The downstream market for epichlorohydrin is weak, with weak demand.

Post forecast: According to the glycerol data analyst from Business Society, the raw material soybean oil and palm oil market is oscillating and falling, and enterprises are mostly wait-and-see. In addition, the downstream chlorine market is weak and demand is sluggish. In the near future, domestic glycerol prices may remain stable, and more information needs to be paid attention to market guidance.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of April 17, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 13840 yuan/ton. Compared with April 14 (organic silicon DMC reference was 14500 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 660 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.55%.

From the data detection chart of the organic silicon DMC products of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (4.14-4.17), the overall weak and declining domestic organic silicon DMC market, and the focus of organic silicon DMC negotiations continues to decline. At the beginning of the week, the price of organic silicon DMC in Shandong’s major factories remained stable at a low level, with a reference of around 13700 yuan/ton. The organic silicon DMC of leading companies has been adjusted downwards to around 14000 yuan/ton, and the high prices in the early stage of the market have been continuously lowered, resulting in a narrowing of the price difference between high and low organic silicon DMC. During the mid week period, the price of organic silicon DMC from Shandong’s major factories was lowered to around 13500 yuan/ton, and the overall low market price continued to decline. As of April 17th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 13500-14000 yuan/ton.

Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of demand: Currently, the trading atmosphere on the organic silicon DMC market is light, and downstream demand continues to be weak. The demand side lacks support for the organic silicon DMC market.

On the supply side, although some factories are operating at a reduced rate, due to the slow transmission of supply and demand, there is still pressure on the supply of organic silicon DMC on-site, making it difficult for the supply side to provide effective support to the organic silicon DMC market.

In terms of cost: Recently, although the metal silicon market has stopped falling and stabilized, the overall situation has not improved significantly. Therefore, the support for organic silicon DMC in terms of cost is also average.

Price situation of organic silicon DMC in some regions of China

Region/ Product/ April 17th

Shandong region/ Organic silicon DMC/ 13500-14000 yuan/ton

Zhejiang region/ Organic silicon DMC/ 13500-14000 yuan/ton

Southwest region/ Organic silicon DMC/ Around 14000 yuan/ton

Northwest region/ Organic silicon DMC/ Around 14000 yuan/ton

Hubei region/ Organic silicon DMC/ Around 14000 yuan/ton

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

At present, the atmosphere of new inquiries for organic silicon DMC in the market is average. As the market price of organic silicon DMC drops to a low level, large factories have a strong stabilizing mentality. According to the organic silicon DMC analyst of Business Society, in the short term, the market situation of organic silicon DMC will mostly be weak with slight adjustments. More attention should be paid to the changes in supply and demand information.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the domestic PC market has been generally stable recently, with spot prices of various brands fluctuating. As of April 16th, the benchmark price for the mixed PC of Shengyishe was around 16200 yuan/ton, with an increase or decrease of+0.41% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above figure that bisphenol A rebounded at the bottom in early April. Affected by the high level operation of international crude oil, pure benzene phenol bisphenol A shows an upward trend. In addition, due to the shutdown and maintenance of some bisphenol A plants in the early stage, the current industry operating rate is only around 60%, dropping to a new low in six months. Overall, the benefits of bisphenol A mainly come from supply and cost, while the consumption aspect is slightly lighter. In the future, it may be organized and operated, and the support for PC spot goods is still sufficient.

In terms of supply: Recently, the overall operating rate of PC in China has undergone a narrow adjustment, with an industry average operating rate of around 77%. Recently, Zhejiang Petrochemical’s maintenance has gradually resumed, and there is expected to be a slight increase in supply in the future. PC supply side support is average.

In terms of demand: Recently, PC consumption has taken on the previous weak pattern, with the main logic leaning towards maintaining production and digesting inventory for just needs. Downstream enterprises have poor stocking enthusiasm and weak demand. Buyers have some resistance to high priced sources, and the demand side has poor support for spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the PC market has remained stable with minor fluctuations. Upstream bisphenol A rose and then fell sideways, providing decent support for PC costs. The load variation of domestic polymerization plants is limited. The consumption on the demand side lags behind, and the trading volume is cold and sparse. It is expected that the PC market in the future will be constrained by weak terminal demand, and prices may stagnate before entering a consolidation market.

Product Name: PVC

Latest price: 5566 yuan/ton

Analysis points: On April 15th, the PVC spot market prices fluctuated. The manufacturer’s quotations tend to be stable, and the on-site trading atmosphere is average. The decline in futures prices has suppressed confidence in the spot market, and dealer prices are more flexible. It is difficult to transact high priced goods. At present, the quotation for PVC SG5 is mostly around 5450-5750 yuan/ton.

It is expected that the PVC spot market will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from April 7th to April 12th, 2024, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China first rose and then fell. Last week, it was at 8533.33 yuan/ton, and this week it was at 8633.33 yuan/ton, up 1.17%.

In terms of crude oil: Although US crude oil inventories have increased and the Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts, concerns about the Middle East situation have not dissipated, and international oil prices have rebounded after falling. On April 11th, international crude oil futures closed lower. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $85.02 per barrel, a decrease of $1.19 or 1.7%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $89.74 per barrel, a decrease of $0.74 or 0.8%.

On April 7, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8800 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8493 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8680 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8800 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On April 8th, the price of pure benzene was 8723 yuan/ton, and on Friday (April 12th), the price of pure benzene was 8712 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.02% from last week and 16.54% from the same period last year..

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, this week’s geopolitical warming has driven up crude oil prices. After the holiday, the pure benzene market followed suit, while the hydrogenated benzene market briefly followed suit. In the later part of the week, crude oil prices declined, and with news of maintenance of downstream devices within the week, the market is expected to have weak demand in the future. The hydrogenated benzene market has given up its gains, and the ex factory price has retreated to pre holiday levels. Currently, most of them remain at 8600 yuan/ton.

This week, the hydrogenated benzene market first rose and then fell. In terms of supply, the main domestic equipment started operating relatively steadily this week, and the overall supply of hydrogenated benzene was relatively stable. In terms of demand, some downstream styrene and phenol units will shut down during the week, and some units have revealed maintenance plans. The market’s future demand is expected to decline, leading to a decline in the hydrogenated benzene market over the weekend. Overall, there is still support for the crude oil market at the macro level, and the subsequent trend is relatively high. As the May Day holiday approaches, there is a demand for stocking in the downstream market. It is expected that the downward space of the hydrogenated benzene market will be limited in the short term, with narrow adjustments being the main focus.