According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on the 15th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 7000-7400 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7500-7800 yuan/ton. In early October, driven by favorable costs, there was some upward trend, but downstream demand did not show significant improvement. The filament market was sluggish in the middle and late months, and the gains at the beginning of the month were gradually consumed. The polyester filament market was not prosperous during the peak season of September and October.

In terms of cost, in November, under the influence of international oil prices, some polyester companies gradually opened up prices and began to slightly reduce prices last weekend. Although the price reduction is not significant, it may become the beginning of the original trend for a period of time in the future.

In terms of supply and demand, after entering November, due to the influence of temperature factors, the order situation did not show a significant decline. Overall, downstream still has strong support for polyester filament, but weaving enterprises still hold a cautious attitude towards raw material procurement. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with few spot transactions and light production and sales of polyester filament.

From the perspective of foreign trade export data, in October, China’s textile and clothing exports reached 25.48 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. Among them, textile exports amounted to 12.39 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%; Clothing exports amounted to 13.09 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. There has been a significant increase in exports to the United States, including market forecasts for the outcome of the US election. These demands will provide support for polyester raw materials in the short term.

There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment in the market, with few spot transactions and light production and sales of polyester filament. The average production and sales of polyester are 34.3%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market on November 14th was 805 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.42% compared to the average price of 801 yuan/ton on November 8th.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market fluctuated narrowly and adjusted, with some regions experiencing slight price increases. The operating rate of coking enterprises remains stable, with a slight increase in the operating rate at the domestic level. This week, downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with a wait-and-see attitude, and rare earth manufacturers are adding orders in moderation. At present, the international market situation of ammonium sulfate has not improved, and there is no short-term positive news. As of November 14th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 760 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream factory price in Shandong region is around 810-840 yuan/ton.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the market situation for ammonium sulfate has slightly improved recently, with a slight increase in bidding prices. But the poor export market situation has a certain impact on the domestic market. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market will mainly experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation.

The domestic acetone market continues to operate weakly. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national acetone market reported an average of 6017 yuan/ton on November 1st, 5875 yuan/ton on November 12th, a decrease of 2.37%, and 5675 yuan/ton on November 12th in the East China region.

The domestic acetone market continues to decline, with average replenishment sentiment from terminal factories entering the market. The overall trading atmosphere is lukewarm, and traders arrange shipments according to the market. Real time negotiations and follow-up are limited, and trading is average. Quotations continue to move towards the lower end. It is expected that the acetone market price in East China will be between 5600-5700 yuan/ton today.

The acetone offers in major mainstream markets across the country on November 12th are as follows:

Region/ Quotation/ Daily increase and decrease

East China region/ 5680./ -50

Shandong region/ 5950./ -100

Yanshan region/ 6020./ -50

South China region/ 5780./ -50

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 12th, the average price of industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane in China this week was 7833.33 yuan/ton, which was stable compared to the same period last week. The price of cyclohexane remained stable this week, with manufacturers mainly offering discounts and taking orders, and active shipments. Downstream demand is still acceptable, and inventory is slowly being consumed. Overall, the market procurement enthusiasm is still acceptable.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: This week, the pure benzene market mainly operated weakly, with insufficient market purchasing power and manufacturers lowering prices, resulting in a narrow and weak operation. Pure benzene lacked support on the cost side of cyclohexane. On November 12th, the East China pure benzene market experienced a habitual decline in negotiations, with low-end purchasing power improving and contract traders actively trading.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the short-term cyclohexane market price is expected to remain stable with a moderate to strong trend.

Recently (11.1-11.11), the market price of Shunding rubber has been weak and declining. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the market price of Shunding rubber in East China was 15030 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.53% from 15580 yuan/ton on November 1st. The price of raw material butadiene has dropped significantly, and the center of gravity of butadiene rubber has shifted downwards; Shunding rubber production has slightly increased; The downstream tire production is generally stable. Shunding rubber suppliers have lowered their supply prices, and merchants have adjusted their quotes. As of November 11th, the mainstream quotes for Shunding in Qilu, Daqing, Sichuan, and Yangtze in East China are 14850~15250 yuan/ton.

Recently, the price of butadiene has continued to decline, and the cost support for butadiene rubber has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 11th, the price of butadiene was 10937 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.26% from 12325 yuan/ton on November 1st.

Recently (11.1-11.11), the overall start-up rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants has slightly increased to 6.60%. Qilu Petrochemical recently restarted and Zhejiang Petrochemical stopped for maintenance, resulting in a slight increase in pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has started to narrow down, and demand is mainly supported by the rigid demand of the butadiene rubber market. As of November 7th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises is around 7.9%; The operating load of all steel tires in tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 60%.

Market forecast: From a fundamental perspective, analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the price of raw material butadiene will significantly fall, and the cost support for butadiene rubber will weaken; Shunding rubber production remains at a low level, with a slight increase in supply pressure; In the near future, downstream construction has been adjusted steadily, and there is a slight resistance to the high price supply. In general, the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is dominated by weak shocks in the short term.