Market Overview: The domestic acrylonitrile market continues to operate at a high level, with tight supply in the East and South China regions, and it is difficult to see significant growth in the short term. Under the support of low inventory, suppliers continue to raise prices, and the market continues to rise, with prices remaining firm and exploring upward.

On the supply side: During the week, major factories in East China were operating at low loads, and there was no significant increase in supply in the short term. Anqing Petrochemical resumed operation of two lines, but the 130000 ton acrylonitrile plant in Jihua (Jieyang) will be shut down for maintenance starting from December 3, and is expected to last for about 10 days. Therefore, the overall supply is still limited; Zhejiang Petrochemical will continue to operate a 260000 ton acrylonitrile plant this month, with a capacity utilization rate of 50%; The 200000 ton acrylonitrile plant of CNOOC Fudao Chemical will undergo maintenance on a production line starting from November 20th, and the start of work is also around 50%. The supply in the East China region continues to be tight, while the northern market is operating at full capacity. As of December 5th, the domestic acrylonitrile industry’s capacity utilization rate reached 71.14%, an increase of 1.36% compared to the same period last week. The inventory of acrylonitrile enterprises was 28300 tons, a decrease of 2400 tons from last week.

In terms of cost, domestic propylene prices have risen narrowly this week, with mainstream transactions in the Shandong propylene market referring to 6950-7050 yuan/ton. Although the Weiyuan PDH plant restarted this week, there is a shortage of propylene resources from North China and the west coast of the Yellow Sea in the Shandong region, which supports the price trend. However, the downstream profit space is narrow, coupled with an increase in plant load reduction and weak demand side follow-up, which still suppresses the price trend. It is expected that propylene may remain weak in the short term.

In terms of demand, downstream demand is basically stable. In mid to late November, the main downstream industry ABS stopped for maintenance at the first line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II. In addition, Jilin Petrochemical’s operating load has further decreased, and the capacity utilization rate has not changed much this week. As of December 6th, it was 68.90%, an increase of 0.08% compared to last week.

Market expectation: Currently, the supply in East China is still limited in the short term, with major factories operating at low loads, and there is a possibility of further decline in the operating load of the Sirbond plant. Although the resources in the north are relatively abundant, factory inventory is not high, and spot prices are also firm and high. It is expected that the domestic acrylonitrile market will remain strong in the short term.

This week (12.1-12.6), the nickel price market is running weakly. According to the monitoring of nickel prices by Shengyi Society, as of December 6th, spot nickel was reported at 12730 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.78% and a year-on-year decline of 1.59%.

Macroscopically, although there are signs of recovery in China’s manufacturing activities, the selling pressure caused by the strengthening of the US dollar has dragged down nickel prices. Additionally, concerns about China’s economic growth and the prospect of US tariffs have been offset by the weakness of the US dollar, resulting in a rise in nickel prices. Affects price range fluctuations in the domestic market.

On the supply side, Shanghai nickel has strong destocking and more inventory has been stored, while London nickel has weak destocking and overall inventory is under pressure. As of December 6th, the inventory of Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts was 29579 tons, an increase of 2406 tons during the week; On December 6th, LME nickel inventory was 165264 tons, an increase of 5298 tons for the week.

On the demand side, the reduction in stainless steel production did not meet expectations or continued to operate weakly. As of December 6th, the reference price for stainless steel in Shengyi Society was 13267.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.66% from the beginning of the week. Steel mills still maintain high production capacity, social inventory remains relatively high, and there is no significant improvement on the demand side.

Market forecast: Demand for essential goods is expected to be replenished at low prices, inventory is under pressure, and price increases are hindered. Attention should be paid to macroeconomic fluctuations, and it is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 28th to December 5th, MTBE prices rose from 5425 yuan/ton to 5475 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.92% during the period, a month on month increase of 3.79%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.09%. The domestic MTBE market is stable and consolidating. After entering December, there are some pending delivery orders for gasoline, and there is a high enthusiasm for purchasing gasoline raw materials. At the same time, there are also many new gasoline vehicle and ship orders, which provide positive support for the relevant gasoline raw material market, and the market remains firmly consolidated.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: International oil prices have fallen, and the main negative factors are: the tense atmosphere in the Middle East has eased again, the increase in US refined oil inventories has exceeded expectations, and the market is still concerned about weak demand prospects. As of December 4th, the Brent price was $72.31 per barrel.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, gasoline transactions are still relatively active, and there are some orders waiting to be delivered, which provides some support. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Narrow fluctuations and consolidation of resource supply side. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of December 4th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has increased by $20.4/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $723.69-725.69/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market increased by 0.25 US dollars/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at 825.99-826.49 US dollars/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States increased by $47.35/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $807.88-808.23/ton (228.11-228.21 cents/gallon).

According to the forecast of supply and demand game in the future, MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience a narrow consolidation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

Overall trend: The price of acrylic acid market has shown a fluctuating trend recently. For example, from November 25th to December 3rd, 2024, the average market price of acrylic acid in the national mainstream market fluctuated between 6668.75 yuan and 6762.50 yuan/ton, with slight fluctuations from November 27th to December 3rd.

Specific price: As of December 4th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society is 6862.50 yuan/ton, which is the same as the beginning of this month. The price of acrylic acid varies among different manufacturers and production areas.

2、 Supply and demand situation

1. Supply side:

The recent maintenance and resumption of production of acrylic acid plants have had an impact on the supply side. Due to maintenance or reduced load operation, some acrylic acid plants have maintained a narrowing trend in the utilization rate of acrylic acid production capacity. However, as the maintenance equipment gradually resumes production, the supply side is expected to release more capacity, but the specific release speed and scale still need to be observed.

At the same time, some newly added production capacity is about to be put into operation, which will further increase market supply. However, due to the uncertainty of the production progress and capacity release of new capacity, the impact on market supply is still difficult to determine.

2. Demand side:

In terms of downstream demand, factories are basically maintaining long-term inventory consumption, and inquiries about low-priced sources are generally average. Due to the expected release on the supply side, but the downstream demand has not shown significant growth, the market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment.

The main downstream application areas of acrylic acid include coatings, adhesives, textile auxiliaries, water treatment agents, etc. The demand situation in these fields will directly affect the market demand for acrylic acid. If downstream demand continues to be sluggish, it will exert downward pressure on the price of acrylic acid.

3、 Production cost

As the main raw material of acrylic acid, the price fluctuation of propylene directly affects the production cost of acrylic acid. Recently, the market price of propylene has been relatively stable, with a national average price ranging from 6700 yuan/ton to 6850 yuan/ton. The specific price depends on the region and trading conditions.

4、 Market competition

The competition in the acrylic acid market is fierce, and companies may adopt price reduction strategies to compete for market share. However, in situations of oversupply and insufficient demand, price reduction strategies may not be effective. In addition, some companies may reduce costs and enhance competitiveness by improving product quality, optimizing production processes, and other means, thereby affecting market prices.

In summary, the short-term acrylic acid market may show a trend of stagnant consolidation and operation. There are expectations of release on the supply side, but downstream demand growth is weak, market competition is fierce, and there is uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment. Therefore, investors and downstream enterprises need to closely monitor market dynamics and relevant information in order to make timely and reasonable judgments and decisions.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market rose in November 2024, with an average price of 16460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 17165 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly increase of 4.28%.

On December 3rd, the lead commodity index was 105.68, up 0.91 points from yesterday, down 21.14% from the highest point of 134.01 points during the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 41.61% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, in the form of a bar chart, reflects the weekly or monthly price changes. Investors can make buying and selling investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar represents the range of rise and fall. After the lead price rose in January 2024, the trend in the first half of the year was strong and volatile. It continued to rise from March to July, and after a correction from August to October, it resumed its upward trend at the end of the year due to tight spot prices. Looking at the weekly trend, there is a split of gains and losses.

The lead ingot market rose strongly in the first half of November, followed by a short-term correction and stabilization. In the second half of the month, the market continued to consolidate and rise, with an overall upward trend.

On the raw material side, the price of lead concentrate has increased. On the refining end, some smelters have reduced production due to environmental inspections. For example, a refinery in Anhui is expected to reduce production by about 1000 tons, and a refinery in Yunnan is expected to reduce production by 20%. Multiple domestic refineries are facing tight supply of maintenance and spot goods. In terms of new production, Qinghai Refinery has plans to increase production.

On the supply and demand side, the total supply of lead ingots decreased year-on-year, reflecting a certain degree of weak consumption. Recently, some lead-acid battery companies have plans to reduce production, and the impact needs further observation.

Overall, the lead market supply in November 2024 was affected by production cuts, resulting in weak demand. However, the international market demand was good, leading to a slight increase in prices. Expected to maintain a high level of operation in the short term.