price trend
According to the bulk ranking data from Shengyi Society, the domestic PC market has been rapidly rising in recent times, with most brands experiencing significant increases in spot prices. As of March 23rd, the mixed benchmark price of Business Society PC is around 16110 yuan/ton, with a price level increase or decrease of 23.67% compared to the beginning of the month.
Root cause analysis
On the supply side: In mid March, the overall load of domestic PC aggregation enterprises remained stable with small fluctuations. In the early stage, there was a sudden halt and return of the Jiangning single track due to strong winds; The overall average operating rate of the industry has dropped to around 86%, with an average weekly output of over 70000 tons. Although there is some accumulation of social inventory, there is still significant room for supply contraction in the future due to maintenance plans between Cangzhou Dahua and Cohen Chuang in early April. Overall, the supply side’s support for PC is still acceptable.
In terms of raw materials, it can be seen from the above chart that the domestic bisphenol A market has been consolidating after the recent rise. Affected by the severe fluctuations in international crude oil, the prices of phenol and acetone fluctuate at the same frequency. Subsequently, it will drive the domestic spot price of bisphenol A. At the same time, the supply increment of bisphenol A in the early stage was limited, and recently crude oil has continued to rise, indicating that there is still room for upward movement of bisphenol A in the future market. There is a positive trend in supporting the cost value of PC.
On the demand side: The improvement in profitability of terminal enterprises is limited, and the load position of PC downstream factories is still average. The current PC price has risen to a relatively high level, and buyers are cautious in stocking up. Coupled with downstream inventory waiting to be digested after the holiday, buyers have weak willingness to continue building warehouses and have entered a wait-and-see stage. And international crude oil continues to fluctuate, pushing up the petrochemical industry and logistics costs, while driving up the resonance of bulk commodity prices. Although the atmosphere of PC market speculation has cooled down in the early stage, the current mentality of merchants is not strong and they are trying to report high. Overall, the demand side provides moderate support for PC spot prices.
Future forecast
Recently, the domestic PC market has been fluctuating at a high level. Affected by the continued geopolitical situation, crude oil and related products in the petrochemical industry chain have fluctuated at high levels, and upstream bisphenol A prices have surged and adjusted, with cost values synchronously transmitted to PCs. Domestic PC polymerization plants have remained stable with small fluctuations in the middle of the month, and the industry will undergo centralized maintenance in the future, with expectations of further tightening of supply. On exchange trading is mainly driven by demand, and buyers have a cautious attitude, returning to the use and take as you go operation. Transactions are mainly small orders. It is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be affected by the dual positive effects of remote upstream leading the rise and supply tightening, and there is still a possibility of price increase.
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