1、 Trend analysis
According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, copper prices have slightly decreased this week. As of the 20th, copper prices were reported at 95813.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.54% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 17.52%.
According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Shengyi Society, in the past three months, copper prices have fallen 8 and risen 3, with a slight decrease this week.
LME copper inventory
According to data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME). LME copper inventory has slightly increased, with 335425 tons of LME copper inventory as of the weekend, up 7.65% from the beginning of the week.
Macroscopically, the overnight Federal Reserve interest rate meeting released a strong hawkish signal, coupled with the sharp escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, causing global risk asset sentiment to freeze instantly.
Supply side: Major copper producing countries such as Peru and Chile have resumed production, coupled with the launch of new mines in Africa, leading to a shift in global copper concentrate supply from shortage to surplus.
On the demand side: The traditional peak season of the “Golden Three” has not arrived as scheduled, and downstream inquiries into the market are cautious. Although there are many low-priced purchases, their sustainability is poor. The continuous deterioration of real estate data (with a 23.1% decrease in new construction) has directly dragged down cable and home appliance consumption.
In summary, copper prices are still at a high level year-on-year, which has suppressed terminal consumption. Under the pressure of hawkish measures by the Federal Reserve, financial attributes dominate pricing, and there is significant short-term adjustment pressure on copper prices. Short term copper prices are expected to experience weak adjustments.
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