According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot market price of gold on December 26, 2023 was 480.64 yuan/gram, an increase of 1.30% compared to the spot market price of gold at the beginning of this month (December 1), which was 474.48 yuan/gram.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of silver in the market on December 25, 2023 was 6060 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.83% compared to the average price of 6173 yuan/kg in the silver market at the beginning of this month (December 1).

From November 2022 to early February 2023, precious metal prices significantly increased. From March to the end of April, due to the impact of the US banking crisis, precious metal prices once again entered a period of skyrocketing. Silver prices began to fall in May, while gold remained relatively strong. In June, gold prices hit a high level and silver prices began to rise. After July, gold prices became stronger. In mid to late September, precious metal prices were affected by news from the Federal Reserve, leading to a high level correction. In October, due to geopolitical factors, the risk aversion sentiment rose and continued to rise. In early November, the high range was weak and fluctuated horizontally. At the end of the month, precious metal prices resumed, and silver saw a stronger monthly increase than gold. Silver prices slightly declined in December, while gold prices remained relatively strong

At present, the price of precious metals has been fluctuating in the high range after reaching a new decade high in the early stage. Under the high inflation and high interest rate hikes we anticipated earlier, the pace of overseas economic recession may lead to a relatively strong sense of risk aversion, which is currently reflected in prices. Some central banks around the world have increased their holdings of gold reserves, which has also provided some support for gold prices. It is reported that in the third quarter of 2023, central banks and other institutions of various countries increased their holdings of gold by 337.1 tons, an increase of 93% compared to the previous quarter.

The recent release of US GDP and inflation data in the third quarter has strengthened the possibility of aggressive interest rate cuts when the cooling level is deeper than expected. The Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts in 2024 has increased, which is beneficial for precious metal prices. In the short term, it is expected that precious metals will operate stronger.

Cobalt prices have fluctuated and risen this week

According to the cobalt market analysis system of Business Society, as of December 25th, the cobalt price was 217300 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.31% compared to December 18th, when the cobalt price was 214500 yuan/ton. The non-ferrous sector has seen a simultaneous rise in prices, with international cobalt prices stopping their decline and rising. This week, cobalt prices have fluctuated and risen.

The market for the non-ferrous sector is on the rise

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the basic non-ferrous index fluctuated and rose in December, with a rebound in macroeconomic conditions and a rebound in metal prices, which is beneficial for the cobalt metal market.

International cobalt prices stop falling and rise

According to the trend chart of MB cobalt price, it can be seen that the price of MB cobalt fluctuated and fell in December. However, over the weekend, the price of MB cobalt stopped falling and rebounded slightly, while the international cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded. The international cobalt market has shown a trend of recovery, which is beneficial for the domestic cobalt market.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the non-ferrous sector is generally on the rise, macroeconomic conditions are favorable, and the international cobalt market is recovering, which is beneficial for the domestic cobalt market. Expected cobalt prices to fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the benchmark price of titanium tetrachloride was 10825.00 yuan/ton on December 22nd. At present, the market price of bottled titanium tetrachloride in China is around 10000-12800 yuan/ton.

The high titanium slag raw material market is stable, with low operating rates and some manufacturers stopping production for maintenance, resulting in a decline in market supply.

Downstream demand has weakened, and the price of titanium tetrachloride continues to operate weakly and steadily. However, due to the weak domestic gold red market and a slight decline in prices, some titanium tetrachloride manufacturers may increase their purchasing demand.

It is predicted that the titanium tetrachloride market will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

Product name: Neopentanediol

Latest price (December 21st): 9775.00 yuan/ton

On December 21st, the domestic market price of new pentanediol slightly increased, with a price increase of 250 yuan/ton compared to December 20th, an increase of 2.62%, and a year-on-year increase of 6.64%. The market situation for raw material isobutyraldehyde has recently seen a slight increase, with increased cost support. The downstream polyester resin market is average, and downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing neopentyl glycol.

It is expected that the domestic market price of new pentanediol will fluctuate slightly in the future. The average market price is around 9900 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 13th to 20th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in the domestic methanol market in East China ports increased from 2420 yuan/ton to 2488 yuan/ton. During the cycle, prices increased by 2.79%, with a month on month increase of 1.56% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.75%. Due to the impact of heavy snow weather in some areas, transportation is restricted, freight rates have increased, delivery speed has slowed down, social inventory in consumer areas has been affected, and the circulation of methanol in the region has decreased, resulting in an increase in downstream delivery prices.

As of the close on December 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has risen. The main contract of methanol futures, 2405, opened at 2384 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2438 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2376 yuan/ton. It closed at 2430 yuan/ton at the end of the day, up 48% or 2.02% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 1233363 lots, with a position of 1220026 lots and a daily increase of -6448.

In terms of cost and supply, recently affected by the cold wave, many parts of China have experienced heavy snowfall and a sharp drop in temperature. The demand for heating electricity has further increased, and the daily consumption of power plants has shown an overall upward trend, driving market sentiment and expectations to improve. Considering the impact of snowfall on the transportation of vehicles, and the fact that power plants will experience a phase of high coal consumption, the enthusiasm for replenishing storage will increase, and procurement demand may be released to a certain extent. The meteorological forecast shows that the new wave of cold wave has strong strength, with a wider range of cooling and widespread rainy and snowy weather, which will provide positive support for coal prices in the short term. The cost of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: Due to the shutdown of the Qingzhou Tianan plant, MTBE demand will decrease; Downstream chlorides: The shutdown and maintenance of the Jiangxi Li Wen plant have reduced the demand for chlorides; Downstream formaldehyde: The Lianyi formaldehyde unit operates under reduced load, reducing formaldehyde demand; Downstream acetic acid: Dalian Hengli has production expectations, and the main factories in Southwest China have maintenance plans, resulting in an increase in demand for acetic acid; The demand for dimethyl ether has little fluctuation. The demand for methanol is mixed.

On the supply side, the overall loss is greater than the recovery, resulting in a decrease in capacity utilization. The supply side of methanol is influenced by favorable factors.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on December 19th, the closing price of methanol in the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market was 331.00 to 332.00 US dollars per ton, up 2 US dollars per ton. The closing price of methanol in the US Gulf methanol market is between 100.00 and 101.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of the FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 296.00-297.00 euros/ton, a decrease of 10.25 euros/ton.

In the future, it is predicted that rainy and snowy weather in many areas will continue to affect transportation efficiency, and the arrival situation between regions will vary, resulting in certain market fluctuations. The methanol analyst of Business Society predicts that the short-term domestic methanol market situation will mainly consolidate and operate.