There has been no significant improvement in the fundamentals this week, but downstream users have followed up with low-priced restocking to stimulate suppliers to slightly increase their quotes. As of November 7th, the mainstream tank discharge price in East China ports has increased by 8050-8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton compared to last week; Short distance delivery to the Shandong market costs 7900-8000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week.
Loose supply:
Supply remains loose during the cycle, with some companies experiencing an increase in inventory. However, in the short term, downstream users are following up to replenish factory inventory, which is still controllable and stimulates suppliers to slightly increase their quotes. According to statistics, as of November 6th, the weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic acrylonitrile factories has reached 77.99%, with a weekly output of about 88900 tons, which is 0.16 million tons compared to the previous cycle. The total inventory is about 52600 tons, which is+0.18 million tons compared to last week.
Decreased demand:
This week, the capacity utilization rate of major downstream industries has decreased, with ABS capacity utilization rate at 71.6%, a decrease of -0.5% compared to last week; The capacity utilization rate of acrylic fiber enterprises was 73.39%, unchanged from last week; The utilization rate of acrylamide production capacity was 53.28%, which was -0.65% compared to last week, indicating a decrease in overall demand for raw materials.
Cost reduction:
This week, the upstream propylene price continued to decline, and the cost support for acrylonitrile weakened. As of November 7th, the market price of propylene in Shandong was 6000-6050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120-150 yuan/ton from last weekend’s 6150-6170 yuan/ton. At the same time, the price of acrylonitrile slightly increased, and the production loss situation significantly improved this week. According to statistics, the average production cost of acrylonitrile this week was 8146 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of -2.75%. The average production profit of acrylonitrile during the same period was -105 yuan/ton, with a month on month increase of 351 yuan/ton.
In the later forecast, the fundamentals are still weak, the overall supply is loose, and downstream buying is once again becoming cautious. The market continues to lack upward momentum. Next, we need to pay attention to the trend of the device and wait for further favorable developments.
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