According to monitoring data from Business Society, since December, bearish sentiment has been suppressed, terminal demand has been weak, and the market has been continuously falling. On December 1st, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 890 yuan/ton. On December 19th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 833 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.37%.

Low terminal demand, weak hydrogen peroxide market, and declining trend

Since December, the market for terminal paper printing and caprolactam has performed poorly, with a decrease in the quantity of hydrogen peroxide purchased and a lack of market sales. Hydrogen peroxide manufacturers lack confidence in price support, and hydrogen peroxide prices continue to decline. On December 19th, the average price of hydrogen peroxide in the market dropped to 833 yuan/ton, a decrease of nearly 7% compared to the beginning of the month.

Li Bing, a chemical analyst at Business Society, believes that some hydrogen peroxide companies have stopped maintenance, and the market supply is tightening. The hydrogen peroxide market is expected to experience a bottoming out rebound in the future.

Zinc prices have fluctuated and risen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 18th, the zinc price was 21044 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.70% compared to the fluctuating zinc price of 20692 yuan/ton on December 11th. The expectation of interest rate cuts in the United States, combined with macroeconomic benefits, has led to a volatile rise in zinc prices this week.

Federal Reserve’s expectation of interest rate cuts

On December 13th local time, the Federal Reserve held a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to discuss interest rates and issued a statement that the current rate hike cycle may have ended and the rate cut cycle is about to begin: the Federal Reserve will have three 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024. At this point, the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive interest rate hike cycle in decades has begun to shift, and the historic monetary tightening cycle in the United States may come to an end. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut signal has boosted market enthusiasm. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index rebounded and closed higher, while the non-ferrous metal sector rose together.

Macro data is positive

According to S&P’s global market intelligence data, the initial PMI for the Markit service industry in the United States in December was 51.3, a new high since July, higher than the expected 50.7, and a value of 50.8 before November. This is the eleventh consecutive month of expansion in the service industry PMI. The initial value of Markit’s manufacturing PMI in the United States for December fell to 48.2, lower than the expected 49.5, and was 49.4 before November. This is the lowest number since August this year, reversing the previous expansion trend. The Markit service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI in the United States reached new highs since July in December, while the manufacturing industry PMI continued to shrink. The US economy slightly rebounded in December, ending the year at its fastest growth rate since July. Markit’s service industry PMI and comprehensive PMI have reached new highs since July, which is beneficial for the non-ferrous metal sector, with zinc ingots following suit; However, the PMI of the manufacturing industry has decreased, and the demand for zinc ingots is insufficient, with limited support for the rise in zinc prices.

Future Market Forecast

According to data analysts from Business Society, the expectation of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and the positive support of US macro data have led to a volatile rise in zinc prices this week. However, the weak US manufacturing industry and insufficient demand support in the zinc market have made it difficult for zinc prices to continue rising. Overall, the oversupply of zinc in the market has not changed, and it is expected that zinc prices will experience weak fluctuations and consolidation in the future.

This week (12.11-12.15), the domestic dimethyl ether market rebounded strongly. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3650 yuan/ton on December 11th, and 3770 yuan/ton on December 15th, with an increase of 3.29% during the cycle and a decrease of 18.4% compared to the same period last year.

As of December 15th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3750 yuan/ton

The overall domestic dimethyl ether market has risen this week, with mainstream prices in Henan around 3650 yuan/ton. The raw material methanol price has remained relatively strong this week, providing stronger support for dimethyl ether. Affected by the cooling down, downstream concentrated replenishment has driven effective flow of market goods, resulting in a decrease in enterprise inventory and a firm upward trend in prices.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated downward this week, with a decrease of 0.46% from 2441 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2430 yuan/ton at the end of the week.

Overall, the downstream replenishment of the dimethyl ether market has ended, and demand will return to a weak position. At the same time, the price center of raw material methanol is unstable, and it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 3500 yuan/ton on December 8th, and 3500 yuan/ton on December 14th. The market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate remained stable this week.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 4073 yuan/ton on December 8th, and 4056 yuan/ton on December 14th. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.41%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of ammonium phosphate remained stable and slightly decreased. The price of raw material phosphate ore is strong, and the price of raw material sulfur has increased, providing favorable support on the cost side. Downstream demand is weak, market inquiries have decreased, new transactions are limited, and many ammonium phosphate manufacturers have suspended their quotations. Although there is currently support for pending orders, as the volume of pending orders decreases, the support may weaken in the future. As of December 14th, the market price of 55 powder ammonium in Hubei region is around 3350-3450 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55 powder ammonium in Henan region is around 3500 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The market quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 4000-4100 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material sulfur, the domestic sulfur price has risen this week. The sulfur refinery unit is operating normally and the market supply is stable. The intention to enter the downstream market for goods has increased, and the market trading atmosphere is positive. Refinery shipments are smooth, and inventory has decreased. Manufacturers have a positive attitude and will adjust their prices based on their own shipment situation. As of December 14th, the reference average price of sulfur in East China is 1096.67 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore, the overall domestic phosphate ore market has remained stable and operational this week. At present, the overall atmosphere of the phosphate ore market is still good, and the mentality of phosphate ore holders is normal. Some mining companies are waiting for new orders to land next year. It is expected that the short-term trend of the phosphate ore market will be mainly stable with minor fluctuations. As of December 14th, the domestic price of 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1020-1080 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the trading atmosphere in the ammonium phosphate market has been poor recently, and the demand side has continued to be weak, resulting in a significant stabilization and slight decline in the ammonium phosphate market. Currently, there is still support from costs and pending orders. It is expected that the short-term market situation for ammonium phosphate will be weak, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to data monitoring by Business Society, as of December 13, 2023, the domestic market price of butanone was referenced at 7533 yuan/ton. Compared with December 7, 2023 (reference price of butanone was 7166 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 367 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.87%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that in the recent period (12.07-12.13), the overall domestic butanone market has shown a weak downward trend. In early December, the supply and demand side of the domestic butanone market was relatively calm, and the trading atmosphere on the exchange was relatively quiet. The butanone market was weak and consolidating. Starting from December 7th, the overall market situation of butanone began to decline, and downstream demand continued to be weak. Under the drag of demand, the center of gravity of the butanone market continued to move towards a low level, with a cumulative decrease of about 200-300 yuan/ton in seven days. As of December 13th, the domestic butanone market price reference is around 700-7500 yuan/ton.

Market Forecast and Analysis of Butanone

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the butanone market is still relatively light, and the transmission and conversion between supply and demand of butanone is slow. Inquiries on the market are average, and the butanone data analyst from Business Society predicts that in the short term, the butanone market will mainly adjust and operate within a narrow range. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the specific news changes on the supply and demand side.