According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to decline since December, with a daily decline of over 4%. The terminal printing and papermaking industry has entered the off-season, with poor demand and a decline in transaction volume in the hydrogen peroxide market. The supply is loose, and the market continues to decline. On the 5th, the average market price fell to 850 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.49% from the beginning of the month.

Business Society’s hydrogen peroxide analyst believes that the terminal rigid demand is weak, and the hydrogen peroxide market will continue to be weak and downward in the future.

Product name: Hydrochloric acid

Latest price (December 4th): 95.00 yuan/ton

On December 4th, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid dropped significantly, with a decrease of 30 yuan/ton compared to December 1st, a decrease of 24.00%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.63%. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a slight decline, with insufficient cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. Hydrochloric acid manufacturers have accumulated severe inventory and are lowering prices to attract orders.

The domestic hydrochloric acid market prices may fluctuate and fall in the future, with an average market price of around 90 yuan/ton.

The market for trichloromethane experienced a significant decline in November. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of November 30th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2066 yuan/ton, a decrease of 28.43% from 2887 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Due to the tight supply side in the early stage, prices remained strong. In the later stage, on the one hand, the support for raw materials weakened, and on the other hand, the pressure on the supply and demand side further increased. As a result, the factory price of enterprises was lowered, and the price of trichloromethane fell from a high level.

In the first half of November, the start-up of methane chloride plants was affected by the maintenance of some enterprise facilities, resulting in an overall decline. The lowest start-up value in the first half of the month was around 6.2%; In the second half of the month, with the resumption of production of early maintenance equipment, the operating rate gradually increased to around 7.6%.

In November, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price of liquid chlorine remained strong at the previous high level and significantly decreased at the end of the month. The cost support for trichloromethane weakened from strong to weak. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of November 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2510 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.50% from 2425 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The high point during the cycle was 2520 yuan/ton, and the low point was 2365 yuan/ton; At the end of November, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In the off-season, there is only a small amount of rigid demand support for refrigerants at the terminal. In November, the price of refrigerant R22 was slightly lower and the operating level was low, resulting in weak support for the demand for trichloromethane. In 2023, the total production quota for R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for the demand for trichloromethane will weaken in the medium to long term.

The methane chloride data analyst from Business Society believes that the demand for trichloromethane is weak in the short term, but there is still some support for raw material prices. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will be weak and consolidate in the short term. In the medium to long term, under the condition of no strong cost support, the market for trichloromethane will basically show a trend of range fluctuation and consolidation due to demand constraints.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, TDI prices in East China continued to decline in late November. On November 30th, the average market price in East China was 16700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 500 yuan/ton compared to the price of 17200 yuan/ton on November 21st, a decrease of 2.91%.

The domestic TDI market has been weak and declining this cycle, with prices continuing to decline. The factory equipment has not changed much, the supplier’s news is quiet, the trade market mentality is not good, terminal inquiries are cold, downstream procurement is sluggish, market trading is weak, shippers have poor shipments, and the confidence of operators is insufficient. The TDI transaction center continues to shift downwards.

The price of upstream toluene has fallen, and the market situation has been weak and downward during the cycle. On November 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6660 yuan/ton, a 2.06% overall decrease from the price of 6800 yuan/ton on November 21st. The international crude oil price range fluctuates, with weak support for the cost of toluene. Downstream demand enters the off-season, market inquiries are weak, and support for toluene demand is weak. In addition, the external price has fallen, and toluene port inventory has significantly increased. The supply side is negatively affected, and the toluene market lacks support, resulting in a downward trend in the market.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that mainstream device maintenance and tight supply of goods in the domestic TDI market are the main reasons for traders to hold up prices. However, downstream buyers have a weak buying attitude and a feeling of just in need procurement. The market trading atmosphere is not good, and there is a game of supply and demand on the market. It is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong Province first fell and then rose in November. The price of isooctanol first dropped from 11460.00 yuan/ton on November 1st to 11120.00 yuan/ton on November 7th, a decrease of 2.97%. Later, it fluctuated and rose to 11460.00 yuan/ton on November 29th, an increase of 3.06%. At the end of the month, the price increased by 25.02% year-on-year.

On November 29th, the isooctanol commodity index was 84.26, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 38.72% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 139.72% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market prices of isooctanol in Shandong have fluctuated this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

In November, the ex factory price of propylene fluctuated and increased, rising from 7050.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7105.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.78%, with a maximum amplitude of 5.93%. At the end of the month, the price decreased by 5.77% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with good cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

Demand side: DOP market fluctuates and rises

The DOP market price fluctuated and increased in November. The price of DOP increased from 11225.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11475.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.23%, with a maximum amplitude of 2.83%. The price at the end of the month increased by 14.75% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly increased, and downstream customers are more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Looking at the future: In mid to early December, the domestic isooctanol market may experience a slight fluctuation and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has recently fluctuated and risen, and downstream manufacturers are more proactive in purchasing isooctanol. Analysts from Shengyishe Isooctanol believe that in the short term, under the influence of supply and demand, as well as raw materials, the domestic Isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and increases.