According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market is in a weak state. From September 13th to 20th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price fell from 16983 yuan/ton to 16933 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.29% during the cycle, a month on month decrease of 3.51%, and a year-on-year increase of 3.89%. Recently, the market demand side has followed up relatively generally, with relatively limited price boosting power. Downstream demand is mainly focused on rigid demand, and traders remain in a market oriented state, patiently waiting for the demand side to follow up.

On the supply side, the maintenance of the 80000 ton/year device in Dongcao Ruian has been completed and the device is operating normally. The current maintenance devices, including the 1.1 million ton/year device in Yantai Wanhua, will be shut down for maintenance starting from August 15th, with an estimated maintenance period of about 40 days. The overall supply has recovered. The supply side is influenced by bearish factors.

On the cost side, the raw materials of pure benzene, crude oil, and styrene are relatively strong, and the price of Eastern pure benzene is rapidly rising. However, there is still a resistance attitude towards purchasing high priced raw materials in the downstream; As of September 20th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangshang Society is 8717.17 yuan/ton. Raw material aniline: The domestic aniline market price continues to be high, and the price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise. Cost support continues to strengthen, and some downstream companies are starting to stock up before holidays. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is active, and some factories have maintenance plans in October. The basic situation of aniline is good, supporting the continuous increase in prices. As of September 20th, the benchmark price of aniline in Shangshang Society is 13700.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, as prices rise, the ability to follow up on the demand side is relatively limited. But as October approaches, there is a willingness to reserve some of the demand orders before the Mid Autumn Festival and National Day holiday, and there is a willingness to follow up with some in the market in the near future. The demand for short-term aggregated MDI is mixed.

In the future market forecast, with high costs as the support, the supply side benefits are gradually disappearing, and downstream demand is average. Business Society MDI analysts predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market is mainly weak and organized.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 19th, the average price of high-quality rubber grade white carbon black in China was 6025.00 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of white carbon black remained stable, with a limited range of price fluctuations. Currently, the mainstream price is around 6000 yuan/ton.

This week, the market price of white carbon black has been stable, with the mainstream price of around 6000 yuan/ton. The focus of negotiations is stable, with downstream demand procurement being the main focus, and the enthusiasm for stocking is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, but the number of new orders is limited.

Chemical Index: On September 18th, the chemical index stood at 969 points, an increase of 2 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 30.79% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 62.04% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

Business Society’s white carbon black analyst believes that the stable operation of the white carbon black market is the main focus in the short term.

Recently, the domestic spandex market has maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 18th, the price of 40D spandex was 34250 yuan/ton, and the industry’s overall construction started at around 72%. The cost support has become loose, and there has been a slight rebound in the downstream.

Current mainstream price statistics of spandex market (unit: yuan/ton)

20D/ 30D/ 40D

Zhejiang/ 38000./37000./35000

Henan/ 37000./35500./33000

Fujian/ 37000./34000./32500

Jiangsu/ 39500./37500./36500

In the raw material market, there have been imported sources of goods arriving at the port recently, and traders have increased their enthusiasm for shipping. The mainstream quotation in the pure MDI market has slightly declined, and the mainstream negotiation for spot goods in the East China region is 22300-22500 yuan/ton by wire transfer in barrels for self pickup. The overall operating rate of the domestic PTMEG industry has slightly rebounded to over 77%, with a molecular weight of 1800 quoted at 21000 yuan/ton.

As the market enters the “Golden Nine” consumption peak season, terminal orders in the chemical fiber industry have rebounded, and the operating load of the weaving industry has started to slightly rebound due to this impact. Among them, the comprehensive operating rate of weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is around 65%. In terms of textile industry exports, the decline in China’s textile and clothing exports narrowed in August, with textile and clothing exports reaching 27.86 billion US dollars, a decrease of 10.2%, and a month on month increase of 2.8%. Among them, textile exports reached 11.69 billion US dollars, a decrease of 6.3%, and a month on month increase of 4.8%. Clothing exports reached 16.17 billion US dollars, a decrease of 12.7%, and a month on month increase of 1.3%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current narrow adjustment in the cost end price of spandex has led to good downstream sales, but with the gradual release of demand during the peak season, it is difficult for demand to rise further. At the same time, in terms of orders, small orders are the main focus, and downstream enterprises are just in need of restocking, so stocking is more cautious, so there is still more uncertainty. It is expected that the short-term market situation for spandex will be dominated by wait-and-see consolidation.

This week (September 11th to September 15th), the domestic dimethyl ether market continued to decline weakly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market on September 11th was 4265 yuan/ton, and on September 15th it was 4220 yuan/ton, which is 1.06% lower than the same period last year, an increase of 1.44% compared to the same period last year.

As of September 15th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3600 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3550 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3500 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market was in a weak downturn. During the week, raw material prices fell, and under cost constraints, dimethyl ether enterprises were weak in price support, and prices began to decline. At the same time, liquefied gas has experienced a decline, the price difference between gas and ether has narrowed, and the mentality of the industry has shifted from strong to weak. Under the influence of multiple bearish factors, dimethyl ether has been continuously lowered. The demand side remains light, and the enthusiasm for downstream market entry is not high.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol rebounded after falling this week, rising from 2510 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2534 yuan/ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.96%. The cost support for dimethyl ether is average.

Overall, downstream demand is weak, upstream inventory is accumulating, and the market lacks positive factors to boost it. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market will continue to be weak in the short term.

According to monitoring data from the Business Society, as of September 14, 2023, the market price of domestically produced industrial grade propylene glycol was referenced at 8716 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10 (propylene glycol reference price 8800), the price was reduced by 84 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.95%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.10-9.14), the overall domestic propylene glycol market showed a weak and declining trend. At the beginning of the week, the trading atmosphere on the propylene glycol market was average, with weak downstream demand. The overall supply of propylene glycol was under pressure, and the supply and demand transmission was relatively slow. At the beginning of the week, some propylene glycol factories narrowly lowered the shipping prices of propylene glycol by around 100-200 yuan/ton. As the weekend approaches, the trading atmosphere on the propylene glycol exchange has warmed up, and the market situation has slightly rebounded. As of September 14th, the domestic propylene glycol market price is referenced around 8700-8800 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Future Market Trends

At present, the trading atmosphere of propylene glycol on the market is mild, with new orders mainly discussed on the market, and the transmission from both supply and demand sides is still acceptable. The propylene glycol data analyst of the Business Society predicts that in the near future, the domestic propylene glycol market will mainly adjust and operate in a narrow range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in news on the supply and demand side.