Product name: PVC

Latest price: 6176 yuan/ton

Key points of analysis: On August 23rd, the PVC spot market rose, and the upstream calcium carbide market was operating at a high level, with strong cost support. In addition, the upward trend of futures today has further boosted the confidence of the spot market. Overall, the trading sentiment in the PVC spot market has improved, with an increase in inquiries. However, actual order procurement remains cautious, with downstream customers mostly watching and purchasing on demand. Prediction: In the short term, the PVC spot market may continue to lean towards consolidation and operation.

Cobalt prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 22, the cobalt price was 261400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% from the cobalt price of 270700 yuan/ton on August 13; The cobalt price decreased by 8.38% compared to 285300 yuan/ton on August 1st. The arrival of cobalt raw materials in Hong Kong has decreased, and the supply and demand in the cobalt market have decreased. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are both weak, and the cobalt price has fluctuated and fallen this week.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has decreased

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the trend of cobalt prices has continued to decline this week, but this week’s decline has decreased compared to last week’s decline, and the decline in cobalt prices has a contracting trend. Moreover, the cobalt price has hit a bottom of 250000 yuan, and there is limited room for its decline. The cobalt price has a trend of bottoming out and rebounding.

The sales of new energy vehicles have decreased month on month, and the expected demand growth in the cobalt market has decreased. The installed capacity of ternary batteries has increased month on month, but the demand growth in the cobalt market remains the same; The import volume of cobalt raw materials decreased on a month on month basis, and the supply of cobalt in the market is expected to decrease.

Overview and outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the supply expectation for cobalt in the market has decreased, and demand growth is less than expected. It is expected that the decline in cobalt prices will slow down in the future, with low volatility and consolidation.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8233.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.65%. Weekend prices increased by 14.88% year-on-year. On August 21, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 40.44, a decrease of 1.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 61.70% from the highest point of 105.58 points in the cycle (2021-09-16), and an increase of 34.26% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly increased this week, resulting in low inventory..

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly increased this week, with prices rising from 6788.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 6813.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.37%. Weekend prices fell by 3.09% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 9666.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9766.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.03%. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased, which has a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late August may be mainly fluctuating and rising. The upstream propylene market has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has slightly increased, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has increased. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and gains due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week (8.11-8.19), the market for dichloromethane increased significantly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong was 2732 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.41% from last Friday’s 2642 yuan/ton. The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to rise slightly, while the cost center of dichloromethane has slightly rebounded; Recently, a certain export order was received from a certain company in Shandong province. In the early stage, the port was around 1000 tons, and the regional supply of goods was tight. In addition, due to the short shutdown of the Fuqiang device, the price of dichloromethane has increased. As of August 19, the factory price of the mainstream dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong province was around 2700-2800 yuan/ton.

This week (8.11-8.19), the Fuqiang unit was shut down for a short period of time, and the domestic methane chloride production fluctuated slightly.

This week (8.11-8.19), the price of raw material methanol slightly increased, the price of liquid chlorine significantly increased, and the cost center of dichloromethane increased. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 19th, the spot price of methanol was 2400 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.81% from last Friday’s 2380 yuan/ton. As of August 18th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong Province has significantly increased from 100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with costs supporting dichloromethane.

The inventory of enterprises in Shandong region remains low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight, which forms support for the price of dichloromethane; Currently in the off-season of air conditioning, the market is weak under the pressure of R32 destocking, and the operation of the device remains low, with only weak support for dichloromethane. However, the downstream pharmaceutical industry has increased demand, and industries such as lithium battery separators are operating steadily, providing some support for dichloromethane.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from Business Society, the supply side of dichloromethane in the region is tight, and there is currently some support in the demand side. In addition, the cost side will continue to rise. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will be strong at a high level in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price on August 17th was 3816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.51% compared to the previous working day of 3583.33 yuan/ton. The domestic acetic acid market continues to be strong and upward, with manufacturers raising their prices by 200 yuan/ton. Some domestic acetic acid plants have been shut down to maintain their initial load, with manufacturers having low inventory and long contracts. The supply of goods in the market is tight, and some holders are reluctant to sell, pushing up prices. At the same time, the bidding prices of major manufacturers in the northwest continue to rise, while other regions have followed suit. The trend of acetic acid prices has significantly increased.

At present, there is strong support from the positive supply side, and the market has a clear intention to support prices. At the same time, the sentiment of buying up or not buying down is also affected, and it is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will continue to be strong.