1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, on the 15th, the average spot market price of nickel was 167450 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.12% from the previous trading day and a year-on-year decrease of 7.98%.

Recently, nickel prices have fluctuated widely due to the Indonesian government’s anti-corruption investigation by the Ministry of Energy and Mines, which has led to slow approval of new production quotas for various nickel mines. In addition, some mines are unable to continue shipping due to the depletion of production quotas, causing a tense supply atmosphere in the nickel ore market. After the news was released, nickel prices have slightly increased. However, for nickel prices, although some of the raw materials in the newly added pure nickel projects come from high nickel matte produced by pyrometallurgy, some still come from MHP produced by hydrometallurgy. Therefore, the impact of this news on nickel prices is relatively small. Moreover, under the consensus expectation of a medium-term excess supply of pure nickel in the market, nickel prices have fallen again after rising. On the macro level, the interest rate path of the Federal Reserve is uncertain, and the market is looking forward to more data guidance. Domestic social finance data is significantly lower than expected, and the real estate market sentiment is declining. Macro bearish sentiment suppresses the upward trend. It is expected that under the fundamentals of oversupply, nickel prices will remain low and fluctuate widely.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 14th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8121.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.09% compared to August 7th at 8114.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000-8300 yuan/ton.

As of August 14th, the mainstream factory average price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7904.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% compared to August 7th at 7946.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8100 yuan/ton.

On August 14th, the naphtha commodity index was 100.23, a decrease of 0.25 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.60% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.29% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the market for refined naphtha fluctuated, but this week, the terminal market showed significant positive results. Refineries were actively shipping, merchants were cautious in chasing higher prices, and there was a strong wait-and-see sentiment, with transactions mainly focused on demand.

This week, the international crude oil market fluctuated and rose. Due to concerns about market supply and continued fermentation, coupled with the positive phase of the peak oil consumption season, OPEC+, an oil producing country, has continued to reduce production by an additional scale, and the decline in finished oil storage in the United States has exceeded expectations.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene has increased this week. On August 14th, the price of toluene was 8100 yuan/ton, and on August 7th, it was 8030 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87%. This week, the price of mixed xylene has increased. On August 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 8630 yuan/ton, and on August 7th, it was 8420 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.49%. The price trend of PX has increased this week, with a price increase of 1.11% from 9100 yuan/ton on August 14th to 8800 yuan/ton on August 7th.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the recent market volatility of local refined naphtha is the main trend, with refineries actively shipping and merchants being cautious in chasing high prices. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and transactions are mainly in demand. In addition, there is no significant positive trend in the terminal reforming of ethylene, and it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will be mainly weak in the near future.

This week’s lead market (8.4-8.11) fluctuated, with the average price in the domestic market at 15830 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 15780 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, a decrease of 0.32%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend has been relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for five consecutive weeks.

The futures market has been fluctuating this week, with Shanghai lead maintaining a high and volatile trend. The market has a strong wait-and-see sentiment, and the upward trading atmosphere is slightly lower. Downstream purchases are on demand, and actual transactions are limited. Fundamentally speaking, in terms of supply, this week the main production enterprises underwent partial maintenance and some resumed production, so the overall change in primary lead supply is not significant. In terms of recycled lead, the supply of waste batteries has been tight recently, and the price of recycled lead is running high due to the shortage of raw materials. In terms of demand, downstream consumption is still relatively low, but prices have been continuously rising recently, making it difficult to transmit to downstream. Recently, battery inventory has been accumulating, and the market is expected to decline during the peak season. Downstream purchases continue to be based on demand. In the future, downstream demand is difficult to increase, and the market is mainly weak and volatile.

On August 11th, the base metal index was 1205 points, a decrease of 2 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.69% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 32nd week of 2023 (8.7-8.11) commodity price rise and fall list. The top three commodities that rose were titanium concentrate (2.62%), magnesium (2.33%), and metallic silicon (1.83%). There are a total of 8 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with cobalt (-3.67%), electrolytic manganese (-2.84%), and tin (-2.39%) being the top three products with a decrease. This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.03%.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of August 10, 2023, the reference price of n-butanol in the Shandong region of China was 7900 yuan/ton. Compared to August 6 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.47%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (8.06-8.10), the domestic Shandong n-butanol market as a whole showed a weak trend of decline. This week, the tight supply side situation in the n-butanol market has been alleviated, with normal spot circulation on the market. The centralized replenishment of downstream goods has basically ended, and the overall downstream demand has returned to calm. The support provided by both supply and demand for n-butanol has weakened compared to the previous period. The market price of n-butanol has also been affected by the weakening of support, and the center of gravity has started to move downward. During the week, the price reduction of n-butanol in the Shandong region is based on the range of 100-300 yuan/ton, as of August 10th, The domestic market price of n-butanol in Shandong region is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

Aftermarket analysis of n-butanol

At present, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol market is acceptable, and downstream new orders are relatively cautious. The mentality of the operators is average. The business company’s n-butanol data analyst predicts that in the short term, the domestic Shandong n-butanol market will mainly operate with narrow fluctuations, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to specific news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from July 21st to August 9th, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China increased from 8564 yuan/ton to 9685 yuan/ton, with a period increase of 13.09% and a year-on-year decrease of 2.75%. The raw material of pure benzene has been repeatedly raised to 7750 yuan/ton, with good cost support. Downstream chemical fibers and solvents just need to follow up, and the supply of cyclohexanone products is average. Driven by costs, the market price has decreased, and the transaction focus continues to rise.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene and the domestic market price of pure benzene continue to rise. Since the end of June, driven by the positive factors of international crude oil fluctuations, the price of pure benzene has been steadily rising. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Business Society was 7772.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.66% compared to the beginning of this month (7287.17 yuan/ton). In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 6.55 million tons, and the current operating load is around 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply. The short-term supply of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream caprolactam production, and caprolactam is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The price of raw material pure benzene continues to rise, and cost support is strengthened. Under cost pressure, the spot price of caprolactam continues to rise with the trend of raw material prices. Partial equipment maintenance of caprolactam has resulted in a decrease in market availability, and downstream follow-up is required. As of August 9th, the benchmark price of caprolactam for Business Society was 12987.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.08% compared to the beginning of this month (12600.00 yuan/ton). The demand side of cyclohexanone has a positive impact.

According to future forecasts, with the high rise in cyclohexanone prices, downstream chemical fiber and solvent prices will follow suit and slow down, leaving the market in a weak equilibrium state. In the future, it is necessary to observe the impact of the price of raw material pure benzene on cyclohexanone. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.