Ethylene glycol prices rise in the second half of August

The price of ethylene glycol rose in the second half of August. According to data from Shengyi Society, as of August 29th, the average price of domestic oil to ethylene glycol was 4663.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.97% from August 20th. The prices in each region are as follows:

The spot price range for mainstream manufacturers in East China is 4600-4795 yuan/ton; The spot price of ethylene glycol in the South China market is 4600 yuan/ton.

On August 29, 2024, the basis of the spot contract for ethylene glycol at the port was close to low and far from high. The paper cargo basis quotation for the 01 contract this week ranges from 0 to+2; The basis of forward contracts is relatively strong, with a basis price of 15-20 yuan/ton in September. Recently, the basis has strengthened.

On August 29th, the price of coal to ethylene glycol remained basically stable, with a domestic price range of 4200-4330 yuan/ton, including taxes.

On August 28, 2024, the external price of ethylene glycol was as follows: the landed price in China was $560/ton, and the landed price in Southeast Asia was $556/ton. The domestic landed price has slightly increased compared to the 22nd.

Reasons for the rebound in ethylene glycol prices this week:

1. The amount of imported ethylene glycol arriving at the port has decreased

Last week, there was a concentration of goods arriving at the port, resulting in accumulated inventory data. However, this week’s expectations for the port have declined, leading to a decrease in inventory data. As of August 29, 2024, the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 673300 tons, a decrease of 10900 tons from the total spot inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China on August 22, which was 684200 tons..

2. Supply side negative load reduction and expected increase

On the supply side, the scale of production reduction in ethylene glycol plants has recently expanded, partly due to the favorable price difference of EO conversion, achieving production capacity conversion, and partly due to planned shutdown and maintenance. On the demand side, downstream demand is expected to be strong during the peak season, with a turning point in the peak season for gold and silver, and a slight rebound in downstream operating rates.

Recent Developments in Ethylene Glycol Plant

Northern Chemical will restart at the end of the month, while coal production facilities such as Shenhua Yulin and Henan Coal Industry will be shut down, and 830000 tons of coal from overseas markets in the United States will be shut down due to unforeseen circumstances.

Future expectations

At present, the absolute amount of explicit inventory in ports is still relatively low. This provides some support for the price of ethylene glycol.

It is expected that the price of ethylene glycol will experience strong fluctuations in the short term, but the price ceiling will narrow.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the average price of ammonium sulfate in the domestic market was 921 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 913 yuan/ton on August 28th. The market price of ammonium sulfate has dropped by 0.90% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate first fell and then rose in August. In the first half of August, the market price of ammonium sulfate weakened and declined. The operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively low, while the operating rate of internal level enterprises is relatively high. The enthusiasm for market procurement has weakened, and on-site trading is weak. The granule factory has a large inventory and the shipping market is not good. The export market for ammonium sulfate has not improved, and the confidence of exporters has been dampened. In the second half of August, the market price of ammonium sulfate fluctuated and rose. The operating rate of coking enterprises is relatively low, and some enterprises have limited production. The operating rate of internal level enterprises has also decreased. Downstream inquiries have increased, the focus of ammonium sulfate transactions has shifted upward, and market prices have risen. As of August 28th, the mainstream ex factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 890 yuan/ton. Domestic grade ammonium sulfate, the mainstream ex factory quotation in Shandong region is around 900-930 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from June 3, 2024 to August 19, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. Ammonium sulfate experienced a significant decline in August, with the largest drop occurring in the week of August 12th at -1.82%.

3、 Future forecast

An ammonium sulfate analyst from Shengyi Society believes that downstream demand is still acceptable in recent days, market inquiries have increased, and on-site trading is good. At present, export expectations are positive, and the price of ammonium sulfate has slightly increased. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic ammonium sulfate market prices will remain stable with a moderate upward trend.

The tight supply of goods continues to drive the phenol market higher. On the 27th, Sinopec once again raised the listing price of phenol. The listing price of phenol in Sinopec East China is 8700 yuan/ton, and the listing price of phenol in Sinopec North China is 8700-8750 yuan/ton. The tight supply in the market continues to be positive, with traders showing strong sentiment towards price increases and factories taking advantage of the situation to raise prices. However, the terminal market is cautious in chasing price increases, with some urgent needs mainly being replenished, and there is insufficient follow-up on trading.

On the 27th, due to the wide upward trend of crude oil, the market price of pure benzene in East China was relatively strong, with pure benzene prices ranging from 8480-8550 yuan/ton. The atmosphere between buyers and sellers has been tense in recent months, but there has been a significant upward trend in the far months. Shandong region has been listed for price increase due to cost support. The cost is supported by favorable downstream phenol.

The phenol offers in various markets across the country on August 27th are as follows:

East China region: 8750, up 50

Shandong region: 8750, up 50

Surrounding areas of Yanshan: 8700, up 50%

South China region: 8780, up 50

The current phenol market is mainly affected by supply and demand, and short-term futures will continue to be tight. The operating rate of phenol ketone factories will increase in September, and the focus should also be on the replenishment of imported goods. Business Society expects phenol to continue to operate steadily in the short term, and pays attention to market transactions.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic polyester staple fiber market has maintained a fluctuating downward trend since August, with a 3.23% decline as of August 25th. Today (August 26th), there was a slight rebound, with the average price of mainstream factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang at 7535 yuan/ton, up 0.44% from the previous trading day. The rise in raw material prices and increased cost support have led to a surge in prices for short fiber producers and traders, but the trading atmosphere remains weak.

The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has increased, which is positive for the commodity market atmosphere. International oil prices have risen, and on August 23rd, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.83 per barrel, an increase of $1.82 or 2.5%. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $79.02 per barrel, an increase of $1.80 or 2.3%. PTA continued to rise, with an average market price of 5388 yuan/ton in the East China region, up 0.98% from the previous trading day. However, the later announced PTA plant maintenance plan is limited, and there is a strong expectation of accumulated inventory in the market.

The peak season for traditional terminal demand is approaching. If demand rebounds as expected, it can boost confidence in the textile market and drive procurement enthusiasm. At present, most of them maintain a small amount of procurement for essential needs, with only a few downstream feedback showing signs of improvement in order volume. The operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is currently around 64%. In the future, attention can be paid to the operating situation of “Golden Nine” terminal textile enterprises, or there may be a phenomenon of periodic bargain hunting procurement.

Business analysts believe that the peak season has not yet started, and the demand side is not yet driven by favorable factors. The market is waiting for a turning point between the peak and off peak seasons. But with the strengthening and consolidation of crude oil, cost support is still present, and it is expected that the price of polyester staple fiber will rise narrowly in the short term.

The phthalic anhydride market has remained sluggish this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 23, the price of phthalic anhydride produced by phthalic anhydride was 7712.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.75% from the price of 7850 yuan/ton on August 16; The price of phthalic anhydride has continuously decreased by 2.22% from 7887.50 yuan/ton on August 1st. In August, the price of phthalic anhydride declined slightly several times, and this week, the price of phthalic anhydride continued its downward trend and fell several times, resulting in a sustained downturn in the phthalic anhydride market. Domestic neighboring phthalic anhydride is priced at 7500-7700 yuan/ton before leaving the factory, while domestic naphthalene phthalic anhydride is priced at 7100-7300 yuan/ton before leaving the factory.

Supply side: Stable supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is temporarily stable, with a production rate of about 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is stable, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. This week, the price of industrial naphthalene is strong and stable, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride is stabilizing. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride is weak and stable, and cost support is decreasing. The market for ortho phthalic anhydride is declining.

The cost of phthalic anhydride raw material ortho benzene is weak and stabilizing

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 23, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.71% from the price of 8500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and temporarily stable compared to last weekend. The price of ortho benzene has fallen, and the cost of raw materials for phthalic anhydride has decreased, resulting in significant downward pressure on phthalic anhydride. Industrial naphthalene manufacturers have reduced their burden and pressure, resulting in a tight supply and a narrow rise in industrial naphthalene prices. The price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has fallen to the bottom line of manufacturers, and manufacturers have a strong willingness to raise prices. The raw material support for ortho phthalic anhydride is weak, and the price of ortho phthalic anhydride is weakly consolidating.

Demand side: DOP market trend declines

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of August 23, the price of plasticizer DOP was 8791 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.87% from the DOP price of 9051 yuan/ton on August 16 last weekend. The recovery of terminal demand is slow, the price of raw material octanol has fallen, costs have decreased, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for placing orders has decreased, wait-and-see sentiment has increased, plasticizer transactions have declined, and plasticizer DOP prices have fallen.

Future forecast

According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in terms of cost, the price of ortho xylene has fallen, and the cost support for phthalic anhydride has weakened; On the demand side, the downstream DOP market fluctuated and fell, and the demand for plasticizers did not recover as expected. In the future, as costs weaken and demand weakens, it is expected that the neighboring phthalic anhydride market will fluctuate and decline.