Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon rose first and then fell. Due to the expectation of limited electricity due to high temperature weather, the resumption of production in Sichuan region is slow, and silicon factories continue to suffer losses, leading to a rebound in the price of metal silicon. However, the downward quotation from major factories in Xinjiang has dragged down market sentiment, and silicon prices have fallen again. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, the average price of 441 # metal silicon in the Spot market was 13630 yuan/ton, down 0.80% on a week on month basis. In the futures market, SI2309 rose or fell by 3.37% throughout the week, closing at 13665 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 17th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 13000-13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13300 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Port of Tianjin is 12900-13600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 14000-14100 yuan/ton, with an average of 114050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 13500-13700 yuan/ton, with an average of 13600 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 13800-14100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 13950 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of July 13th, there were 315 silicon metal furnaces operating, with an overall start-up rate of 42.76%, an increase of 5 furnaces compared to the previous month. Further response from silicon factories in the northwest region, some companies in Sichuan have delayed resuming production due to restrictions on film production, while the number of furnaces opened in Yunnan remains stable. The overall number of furnaces has increased slightly, and the supply is still relatively loose.

In terms of demand:

This week, the price of polycrystalline silicon has bottomed out and stabilized, with the mainstream range of 60-75000 yuan/ton for single crystal dense materials of grade one solar energy. Recently, the supply pressure in the silicon material market has eased, but demand is relatively weak, and prices have clearly bottomed out. It is expected that prices will still hover low in the near future, and the probability of an upward trend in the short term is not high.

The domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is 13660 yuan/ton, and DMC prices continue to decline. The imbalance between supply and demand of organic silicon remains unchanged, and some individual factories plan to undergo maintenance. The weekly operating rate of the aluminum alloy industry remained flat, as the terminal entered the off-season and the procurement of metal silicon slightly weakened.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, there is currently some interference from high temperature power restrictions on the supply side, and due to cost inversion, silicon factories have a strong willingness to raise prices. However, the impact of limited films is limited, and the overall supply side of metal silicon is increasing, while the demand side is still sluggish. Coupled with the large overall inventory volume, silicon prices are being suppressed.

Cobalt prices have fallen from their high levels this week

According to data monitoring from Business Society, as of July 14th, the cobalt price was 304100 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.93% compared to July 7th, when the cobalt price was 301300 yuan/ton; The cobalt price decreased by 0.49% compared to 305600 yuan/ton on July 11th. Downstream demand support still exists, and the news of the landing of collection and storage cannot be confirmed. The supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced, and the support for the continuous rise of cobalt prices is limited. This week, domestic cobalt prices have retreated from their high levels.

Rising sales of new energy vehicles

According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in June, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with year-on-year growth of 32.8% and 35.2%, and a market share of 30.7%. The sales of new energy vehicles have significantly increased, and the demand for cobalt in the market has increased. Downstream customers still have purchasing enthusiasm, and traders have a strong willingness to negotiate.

International cobalt price rise slows down

From the trend chart of MB cobalt prices, it can be seen that in July, MB cobalt prices fluctuated and rose, but the rise in cobalt prices slowed down. In July, the international market entered the summer break stage, and there was a large demand for electrolytic cobalt replenishment in the international market. The rise in international cobalt prices slowed down, and the upward momentum of domestic cobalt prices weakened.

Overview and outlook

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of Business Society, believes that new energy vehicles are growing steadily, the demand for cobalt is growing, and in terms of supply, the United States House of Representatives has proposed a bill to develop a U.S. national strategy to ensure the Supply chain security of Congo’s cobalt minerals, or affect domestic cobalt raw material supply. The news of cobalt storage has stimulated the rise of cobalt prices, but the implementation of cobalt storage has not been confirmed yet, providing limited support for the continued rise of cobalt prices. Overall, the rebound in demand is difficult to exceed expectations, and the supply and demand in the cobalt market are relatively balanced. The support for the rise in cobalt prices is limited, and it is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate and consolidate strongly in the future.

1、 Review of Lithium carbonate price trend in the first half of 2023

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the business community, in the first half of 2023, the price of Lithium carbonate had a roller coaster decline and rebound, but the overall price was still downward compared with the beginning of the year. As of June 30, the domestic mixed average price of industrial Lithium carbonate was 298000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40.87% compared with the average price of 504000 yuan/ton on January 1. The domestic mixed average price of battery grade Lithium carbonate was 312400 yuan/ton on June 30, a decrease of 40.5% compared with the average price of 525000 yuan/ton on January 1.

From the price curve chart of Lithium carbonate, the price of Lithium carbonate has been falling since the beginning of 2023, and the price will reach a low point in the middle and late April. As of April 24, the average mixed price of industrial Lithium carbonate is 165000 yuan/ton, and the average mixed price of battery grade Lithium carbonate is 194000 yuan/ton, with a decline of 67.26% and 63.05% respectively. After the low point, the price rebounded and continued to rise. The most significant price increase was in May, while there was a slow increase in June, and the final price remained around 300000 yuan/ton.

According to the monthly K column chart of Lithium carbonate, in the first half of 2023, the price of Lithium carbonate will rise in May and June, with the maximum increase of 66.67% in May, while other months will fall in different ranges, with the maximum decrease of 41.3% in March.

2、 Analysis of Lithium carbonate price trend factors in the first half of 2023

In the first quarter, the price of Lithium carbonate kept falling: industrial Lithium carbonate fell 55.44%, and battery Lithium carbonate fell 50.67%

In January, the Lithium carbonate reserve stock of the lithium salt plant was sufficient, and some large plants kept reducing the transaction price of Lithium carbonate due to obvious inventory pressure. And traders also have ample supply of goods, mostly in a state of low price shipping. In terms of demand, due to the impact of the Spring Festival holiday, the market demand is relatively poor, and downstream enterprises are entering a state of vacation. This has led to a serious reduction in market orders, with no procurement demand at the moment. The market expects prices to continue to decline, leading to a heavy sense of pessimism.

In February, the decline of Lithium carbonate continued to expand, and the lithium salt plant was in the state of resuming production. However, the mica smelting enterprises affected by environmental events in the early stage resumed production, and the new capacity climbed significantly. With the continuous warming of the temperature, the output of the salt lake is also increasing, so the increase of the total output leads to an increase in the supply of Lithium carbonate, which suppresses the price of Lithium carbonate. However, downstream battery material enterprises have been slow to destock and their production plans have been lowered, resulting in a sharp decrease in demand for Lithium carbonate. In the uncertain cycle of demand recovery, the upstream and downstream continue to negotiate and sign long orders, resulting in the market being in a wait-and-see state without purchasing intention.

In March, the lithium salt plant entered the passive accumulation stage. Although some enterprises arranged production reduction and maintenance, the output of Lithium carbonate still increased, and the inventory remained at a high level. Most lithium salt plants mainly sign long orders, and the price of Lithium carbonate keeps falling. In the atmosphere of buying up instead of buying down, market inquiries are relatively light. In addition, downstream market demand remains weak, making it difficult for the market supply and demand relationship to support spot prices. In the first quarter, the pressure on lithium salt factories to ship increased, leading to low price selling in the market and accelerating the decline in spot prices. As the price decline of Lithium carbonate continues to expand, the actual transaction is not optimistic.

In the second quarter, the price of Lithium carbonate stopped falling and rebounded, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain maintained a clear game

In April, the price of Lithium carbonate remained on the decline until the late ten days when some mica enterprises and lithium salt plants had a large number of OEM and production reduction and suspension due to cost inversion and other problems. The operating rate of Lithium carbonate dropped, the spot supply in the market was tight, and the price of Lithium carbonate began to rebound. On the demand side, downstream battery enterprises all have sufficient reserves of Lithium carbonate, so procurement reduction and delayed delivery often occur, and gradually transmit to the upstream of the industrial chain. The increase in reserves makes the actual demand for Lithium carbonate lagging behind. Near the end of the month, the Lithium carbonate market became more active, the number of downstream inquiries increased, and the spot market was less, and the sellers were reluctant to sell, which made the market more tight, leading to increased demand for Lithium carbonate and a rebound in price.

In May, the supply of upstream raw material lepidolite was limited, and the price of imported Spodumene concentrate from overseas was high and increased significantly, which increased the production cost of Lithium carbonate. In addition, traders’ hoarding sentiment is still fierce, and the price of Lithium carbonate is rising. Affected by both supply and demand, the upstream and downstream of Lithium carbonate continue to play games. The early rise was mostly guided by market sentiment, and the downstream demand for replenishment was strong. As the downstream demand did not improve significantly, the price of raw materials was high. Although the bullish sentiment in the Spot market was still strong, lithium salt manufacturers maintained high prices, but further price increases will further increase the cost of downstream manufacturers, and the upward momentum will gradually weaken.

In June, the price of Lithium carbonate increased slowly and gradually stabilized, and the price dropped slightly near the end of the month. The market activity gradually stabilized, the downstream early replenishment was sufficient, and the Lithium carbonate price transmission was under pressure, so it was still difficult to reach a deal at a high price, so the supply and demand game was still obvious.

3、 Lithium carbonate production, import and export data and market supply and demand in the first half of 2023

According to industry data statistics, the domestic production of Lithium carbonate from January to June 2023 is 199150 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 31.6%. By the end of May, China has put into production more than 700000 tons of Lithium carbonate per year. At the same time, many large Lithium carbonate projects using domestic brine (Tibet), lithium ore (Xinjiang), lithium mica (Jiangxi, Hunan) and other raw materials are also under construction. It is believed that the self-sufficiency rate of Lithium carbonate in China will gradually increase in the future, which will better provide resources for the development of China’s lithium battery industry.

According to customs statistics, the cumulative import volume of Lithium carbonate in China from January to May 2023 is 60157 tons, an increase of 40% year on year. The average import price in May also decreased from 379000 yuan/ton in April to 273000 yuan/ton. From January to May 2023, China’s cumulative export volume of Lithium carbonate is 5487.1 tons.

From January to May 2023, China’s apparent consumption of Lithium carbonate is about 170890 tons, and the import dependence is 25.6%. In terms of Lithium carbonate consumption, affected by factors such as the increase in the output of terminal new energy vehicles and the substantial increase in the output of Lithium iron phosphate and ternary cathode materials month on month, the apparent consumption of Lithium carbonate in May reached 42000 tons, an increase of 11.8% month on month. In May, the domestic production of Lithium carbonate reached 33000 tons, and the import dependence of Lithium carbonate dropped to 20.6%, the lowest level in the year.

Upstream lithium ore resources are tight, and lithium ore prices are relatively high

The upstream of the Lithium carbonate industrial chain is the collection of raw materials, which are mainly divided into lithium mines and salt lakes, and made into industrial Lithium carbonate. According to data, global lithium resources are mainly distributed in countries such as Chile, Australia, and Argentina, with China’s reserves accounting for only 6.3% of the global total. There is a significant gap in lithium self-sufficiency. Since the beginning of this year, mining policies of overseas countries have been continuously tightening, and their management of lithium resources is strengthening. The import volume of lithium ore in China from January to May 2023 was 1.677 million tons, an increase of 74.3% year-on-year.

Downstream and terminal industry trends

In the first half of the year, the market of Lithium hydroxide in the lower reaches first fell and then rose, and the overall trend was sluggish. As of June 30th, the average price was 332500 yuan/ton, with a decline of 39.91% in the market within six months. The market support for Lithium hydroxide was weakened due to the drop in the price of Lithium carbonate. In addition, the domestic demand was weak, the actual market transactions were limited, and the focus of Lithium hydroxide negotiations was weak. In the second quarter, due to the strong rebound of Lithium carbonate price, the strong support of Lithium hydroxide market, and the slight increase of downstream demand, the price mentality of the industry increased.

The downstream Lithium iron phosphate showed a downward trend in the first half of the year. As of June 30, the price was 95000 yuan/ton, and the market fell 42.77% in the first half of the year. In the first quarter of Lithium iron phosphate, due to the double decline of upstream raw materials Lithium carbonate and Iron(III) phosphate, the cost of lithium iron continued to decline. On the other hand, the Lithium iron phosphate market has less new orders and greater shipping pressure. In addition, the terminal market is weak, and the market recovery expectation is lengthened. Subsequently, the price of Lithium carbonate returned to a high level, which played a certain role in supporting the cost of Lithium iron phosphate. In addition, the production schedule of major positive electrode material manufacturers is expected to continue to increase, and market prices and construction continue to improve.

The terminal new energy vehicle industry maintained an overall growth trend in the first half of the year. According to data from the Automobile Industry Association, from January to June 2023, China’s total production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Therefore, terminal demand for lithium batteries still exists, which also plays a supporting role in the price of Lithium carbonate.

4、 Future market forecast of Lithium carbonate

Analysts from Lithium carbonate business agency believe that the price of Lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the first half of 2023 due to the imbalance between supply and demand in the industrial chain. With the gradual improvement of domestic Lithium carbonate production and quality, it may reduce dependence on foreign Lithium carbonate imports, which will help maintain the stability of Lithium carbonate prices. In addition, the rapid development of new energy industry will also drive the demand for Lithium carbonate. At present, the supply of Lithium carbonate market is relatively sufficient. In contrast, the demand remains stable, and the game between market supply and demand continues. It is expected that the downstream market will mainly wait and see in the short term, and the price of Lithium carbonate may fluctuate in a narrow range.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of domestic ammonium sulfate on January 1 was 1243 yuan/ton, and on June 30, the reference average price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 686 yuan/ton. In the first half of 2023, the price of ammonium sulfate decreased by 44.77%.

2、 Market analysis

The ammonium sulfate market continued to weaken in the first half of 2023, with prices falling continuously. In the first half of the year, the demand for ammonium sulfate in the market continued to be weak, with a small amount of downstream procurement and excessive pressure on prices, resulting in weak new orders. The export performance of ammonium sulfate is poor, and the market situation is sluggish. The bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate has significantly decreased, with domestic grade ammonium sulfate following the downward trend. The continuous weakening of urea prices in the first half of the year has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. As of June 30th, the mainstream factory quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Henan region is around 670 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 700 yuan/ton.

According to the K-bar chart from January to June 2023, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate price decreased significantly in the first half of the year. The largest decline occurred in March, with a maximum decline of -21.79%.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society believe that due to the recent rise in urea prices, which is beneficial for the ammonium sulfate market, the price of ammonium sulfate has started to rise significantly. However, market demand is still weak, and new orders have limited transactions. It is expected that the high price of ammonium sulfate will be consolidated and operated in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, since July, the hydrogen peroxide market has been continuously rising significantly. As of July 10th, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide was 960 yuan/ton, an increase of 22.55% compared to the beginning of the month.

Lido supports the continuous upward trend of hydrogen peroxide market

Since July, the demand for hydrogen peroxide terminals has improved, with active market transactions and an increase in sales. Major hydrogen peroxide manufacturers have raised their prices one after another, with mainstream prices rising to 960 yuan/ton, an increase of about 100 yuan/ton.

Business Society Hydrogen Peroxide Analysts believe that supply is tightening, terminal demand is supporting, and there is still room for improvement in the future hydrogen peroxide market.