Price trend

The domestic PA66 market showed a negative trend in the first week of July. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the benchmark price of domestic PA66 was 19166.67 yuan/ton on July 7th, with a decrease of -2.54% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

This week, the PA66 market continued its previous weak trend, and overall, spot prices of various brands have declined. In terms of supply, the overall load of the domestic PA66 industry is currently maintained at over 60%, which is relatively flat compared to the previous period. The coexistence of enterprise construction and maintenance shows a trend of rotating negative reduction, but the on-site supply of goods is still relatively sufficient, so the supply side’s support for spot goods is average. Poor digestion in inventory, negative corporate confidence, and a decrease in pricing operations. In terms of upstream, the domestic Adipic acid market continued to decline, and the low start and low demand continued to play a game, increasing the decline. In terms of Hexamethylenediamine, major international manufacturers have significantly reduced the factory price, which is obviously bad for the spot of PA66. The raw material side of PA66 has poor support for spot goods. In terms of demand, the situation is stable with some weaknesses, and terminal enterprises mainly rely on goods to maintain production. Buyers generally resist high priced sources of goods. It is expected that PA66 may continue its weak consolidation in the short term.

Future Market Forecast

At the beginning of July, the spot price of PA66 fell. The price of raw materials has weakened, which has poor support for the cost of PA66. The load of PA66 enterprise is maintained, and the supply support is not obvious. The demand side takes goods to maintain production, and it is expected that PA66 may maintain a weak consolidation market in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic BDO market is in a weak position. From June 29th to July 6th, the average price of domestic BDO decreased from 11497 yuan/ton to 11364 yuan/ton. During the week, the price decreased by 1.16%, with a month on month increase of 1.60% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.42%.

Although some equipment maintenance, load reduction, and agent replacement may release the end of July maintenance news, the supply side has a favorable inventory to support the supplier’s market growth; But the demand side is in the traditional off-season, and most downstream industries are under cost pressure, which suppresses procurement enthusiasm. The pressure on supply and demand has increased, and holding manufacturers have discussed shipping attitudes, resulting in a downward trend in the focus range of actual orders.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment, the news of a major inspection at the end of July showed an increase in positive support from the supply side; Online bidding is trading at a relatively high level, and the supplier’s intention to defend the price still exists. Short term BDO supply is a positive factor.

On the cost side, raw materials for calcium carbide: The domestic calcium carbide market continues to be weak. On July 6th, the benchmark price for calcium carbide in Shangshang Society was 2850.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.16% compared to the beginning of this month (2883.33 yuan/ton). In terms of methanol, supply is still abundant, demand changes are limited, and costs may temporarily remain stable. The domestic methanol market is operating in a weak trend. On July 6th, the benchmark price of methanol for Shangshe was 2137.50 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.95% compared to the beginning of this month (2180.00 yuan/ton). Recently, the market for calcium carbide and methanol has continued to be sluggish, and there is currently no significant improvement in the cost of BDO.

On the demand side, the performance of terminal demand is not good, and the upward transmission of orders is not smooth, which suppresses the enthusiasm of downstream industries to start work. The main focus is on maintaining contracts for raw material procurement, with scattered spot orders following up and strong bargaining sentiment. Short term BDO demand side is relatively short.

In the future market forecast, BDO device maintenance and restart coexist, but the overall market supply has slightly decreased, and the supply side has a certain advantage, supporting the supplier’s strong market. There has been no significant improvement in terminal demand, suppressing downstream procurement enthusiasm. BDO analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic BDO market may fluctuate and consolidate.

On July 5th, the domestic liquid ammonia market rose, with a daily increase of 2.45% in the main production area of Shandong, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society. The main reason is the tight supply, which has a positive impact.

Some devices in the northern region have entered the maintenance period, and the operating rate of enterprises has decreased. The superimposed import sources have significantly decreased compared to the previous month. The market atmosphere has significantly improved compared to the previous week, and the exploratory nature of dealer offers has increased. However, due to the small changes in the downstream urea market, downstream agricultural demand for fertilizer preparation is coming to an end, indicating that this increase is mostly driven by suppliers. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2700-2900 yuan/ton.

Prediction: It is expected that the tight supply trend of liquid ammonia in the near future will not be maintained for too long, as demand has not improved, and the retreat of agricultural demand will quell the contradiction of supply shortage. It is expected that there is not much upward space for liquid ammonia in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China on June 1st was 6220 yuan/ton. On June 30th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6300 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic hot process phosphoric acid price increased by 1.29%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 5983 yuan/ton on June 1st, and 6200 yuan/ton on June 30th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price increased by 3.62%.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of phosphoric acid in the market fluctuated and fluctuated. In early June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus increased, cost support strengthened, and the increase in raw material prices boosted the upward trend of the phosphoric acid market. In mid June, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus decreased, and cost support weakened. Downstream stocking willingness is not strong, market trading is poor, and transactions are relatively low. The market price of phosphoric acid has been lowered. In late June, the raw material yellow phosphorus was operating steadily and steadily, with acceptable cost support. Phosphoric acid companies mainly raised prices, and prices fluctuated and increased. As of June 30, the ex factory quotation of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Sichuan was about 6200 yuan/ton, that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Yunnan was about 6300 yuan/ton, and that of 85% thermal phosphoric acid in Hubei was about 6200 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85% wet process phosphoric acid is around 6000-6700 yuan/ton.

The raw material phosphate rock market has shown a weak decline overall in the domestic phosphate rock market this month. Starting from the beginning of the month, due to the weak downstream demand for phosphate ore, the overall shipment of phosphate ore has slowed down, and the mentality of the industry is average. Some mining companies have started to lower the price of phosphate ore shipments, with a decrease of around 20-30 yuan/ton. Due to the impact of shipments, some mining enterprises have added average new orders, so there is some pressure on the supply side, and the support provided by the supply side to the market is gradually loosening. In the later stages, the phosphorus ore market continues to move downward in the supply-demand game, with a 30% grade phosphate ore price reduction of around 40-60/ton.

Market situation of raw material yellow phosphorus. In June, the market price of yellow phosphorus first rose and then fell, with the overall increase being the main trend. In the early part of this month, manufacturers mainly placed preliminary orders, but there was not much inventory on the market and they were reluctant to sell at low prices, resulting in an overall increase in the market situation. In the middle of the month, the overall market trading situation of yellow phosphorus was light, and the start of construction in the yellow phosphorus market was still at a low level. Some enterprises postponed driving, and market transactions were limited, with prices slightly falling. At present, most of the yellow phosphorus production enterprises are reducing their production load in the latter half of the year, with stable prices as the main focus. Downstream procurement is based on demand and can be taken as needed. As of now, the quotation in Sichuan region is around 22800-23000 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is subject to negotiation.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Phosphoric acid analysts from Business Society believe that the market for raw material yellow phosphorus has been stable recently, and the supply of goods is currently tight, leading to an increase in market inquiries. The phosphoric acid market is watching the trend of raw materials, and the market is operating at a high price. Downstream demand is weak, and market transactions are relatively low. It is expected that the short-term price of phosphoric acid will stabilize and operate mainly.

The antimony ingot market in East China will decline slightly from June 26 to July 3, 2023. The price at the beginning of last week was 81625 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of this week was 81250 yuan/ton, down 0.46%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above figure, it can be seen that the trend of the antimony ingot market was relatively stable in April, and the market has been slightly declining for four consecutive weeks since June.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has temporarily stabilized, and as of July 3rd, it was at $11850/ton, with a decrease of $100/ton. Currently, the overall market atmosphere is on the wait-and-see side.

This week, the antimony ingot market continued its previous weak trend, and prices continued to decline slightly this week, with a decrease of about 500 yuan/ton within the week. The changes in supply and demand are still limited, and the overall performance is weak in both supply and demand. The operation of the refinery has remained basically unchanged compared to last week. Although manufacturers have a certain mentality of price support, they have also relaxed their mentality in the face of long-term weak market operation. In terms of demand, sales of antimony oxide are weak, and downstream demand is generally weak, resulting in cold market trading. The overseas situation is also not optimistic. The European region is about to enter a summer break, and the price of antimony ingots in Europe continues to decline. Overseas demand is expected to decline. According to the latest export data, the export volume of antimony oxide and antimony ingots has declined, and the weakness of the overseas market has also affected the mentality of the domestic market. The market outlook for the future is not good. Overall, the current market supply and demand are weak. With the continuous decline of prices, the market’s wait-and-see mentality has become increasingly strong, and the mentality of refineries to support prices has become loose. It is expected that the market will continue to operate weakly in the future.

This week, the antimony oxide market is operating weakly, with weak downstream demand and overall soft market transactions. The demand for antimony ingots remains strong, while the intention to receive goods from upstream is weak, and on-demand procurement is maintained.