In July, the domestic spandex market slightly declined, with an average price of 33375 yuan/ton in the 40D market as of July 31, a decrease of 0.74% compared to the beginning of the month. The current high raw material prices have led to low losses in the spandex industry, with the overall industry operating at around 72%. Downstream textile off-season demand is exhausted, causing a drag on prices.

The domestic pure MDI price center is constantly strengthening, and the market spot is limited. The molecular weight quotation for PTMEG’s mainstream factory 1800 is based on 19500 yuan/ton, and some factories do not provide external quotations for the time being. The overall operating rate of the industry is around 75%.

From a downstream perspective, the recovery of terminal textile demand is not as expected, and capital turnover is difficult. In the off-season of traditional industries, there is a strong wait-and-see attitude and a moderate enthusiasm for buying goods. In addition, due to factors such as the Asian Games and power restrictions, the operating rate of weaving machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has slightly declined to below 65%, and there is an expectation of further negative reduction.

Analysts from Business Society believe that currently, downstream textile enterprises of spandex mainly consume inventory of raw materials in the early stage, and the improvement of orders is not significant, forming negative feedback on upstream products. However, cost positive support still exists, and there is still some support for the spandex market price in the short term. In the future, weak demand will drag down, and there is still a possibility of a downward trend in spandex prices.

Trade name: Isobutyraldehyde

Latest price (August 1st): 7900.00 yuan/ton

On August 1, the price of domestic Isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, 233.33 yuan/ton higher than that on July 31, up 3.04%, 8.22% year-on-year. The price of raw material propylene has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream market of Neopentyl glycol rose slightly, and downstream customers became more active in purchasing Isobutyraldehyde. The trading of Isobutyraldehyde market improved, and the market price rose in shock.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic Isobutyraldehyde market price will rise in shock, mainly finishing. The average market price is around 8000 yuan/ton.

The price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the DBP price was 9537.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 8.53% compared to the price of 8787.50 yuan/ton on July 1. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, while DBP raw materials such as butanol and phthalic anhydride have fluctuated and increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP has increased, while PVC has continued to rise. The demand for plasticizers has rebounded, and the price of plasticizer DBP has fluctuated and increased in July.

The price of isooctanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of isooctanol was 9983.33 yuan/ton on July 31, an increase of 6.77% compared to 9350 yuan/ton on July 1. The inventory of isooctanol is low, and the market center has shifted upwards. In July, the price of isooctanol fluctuated and increased, resulting in an increase in the cost of plasticizer DBP raw materials and a surge in plasticizer DBP prices.

The price of n-butanol fluctuated and rose in July

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 31, the price of n-butanol was 7900 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97% compared to the price of 7316.67 yuan/ton on July 1. The supply of n-butanol has increased, and downstream demand has slightly rebounded. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises has remained stable. The supply of n-butanol has increased, and demand has rebounded. In July, the price of n-butanol fluctuated and increased, and the cost of plasticizers has increased. In the future, the price of plasticizer DBP fluctuated and increased.

PVC prices fluctuated and rose in July

According to the PVC product market analysis system of the Business Society, as of July 31, the PVC quotation was 5796.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.30% compared to the PVC price of 5505 yuan/ton on July 1. Crude oil prices have fluctuated and increased, PVC costs have increased, and PVC prices have fluctuated and increased in July; The postponement of two policies in the “16 Financial Regulations” will help promote the completion and delivery of real estate projects, leading to an expected increase in PVC demand, a rebound in downstream demand, and an increase in the cost of plasticizers.

Future expectations

Analysts from Business Society’s plasticizer product data believe that the price of crude oil has increased, and the supply of butanol and octanol is tight. In July, the prices of isooctanol and n-butanol fluctuated and increased, while the prices of ortho benzene and phthalic anhydride have increased. The cost of plasticizer DBP products has increased, and the driving force for DBP growth has increased; The price of PVC has risen, the demand for PVC continues to grow, the demand for plasticizers continues to rise, and the driving force for the price increase of plasticizer DBP has increased. In the future, as DBP costs rise and demand rebounds, it is expected that DBP prices will fluctuate and rise in the future.

In July, the trichloromethane market first fell and then rose, and the overall market rose slightly. According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 29, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 2062 yuan/ton, 1.85% higher than 2025 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 14.58% higher than the cycle low of 1800 yuan/ton. The price of raw material methanol rose in shock, and the cost center of trichloromethane rebounded slightly; In the first ten days of the year, the centralized replenishment order of chloroform ended, and some R22 enterprises stopped for maintenance. The demand side of chloroform weakened again, and the price fell; In the middle of the year, driven by the high cost of methanol and liquid chlorine, the price of chloroform rebounded; The pressure on the supply side of chloroform is expected to increase in the next ten days, and the price will stabilize temporarily after rising.

In July, the methane chloride unit slightly decreased in the early stage of operation, and slightly increased after some units were restarted in the later stage. In the later stage, the supply pressure of the new Jiuhong unit is expected to increase again.

In July, the price of raw methanol rose in shock, and the cost of chloroform strengthened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of July 29th, the spot price of methanol was 2281 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.66% from 2180 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; The low point of the cycle is 2137 yuan/ton, and the high point is 2314 yuan/ton.

The domestic downstream refrigerant R22 quota digestion schedule is expected to rise in advance of the price, but some enterprises stop for maintenance and start at a low level, and the demand for chloroform is just limited; Methane chloride is low before commencement and high after commencement, and chloroform supply is loose in the later period; In the short term, the supply and demand surface of chloroform is weak. Overall, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons in 2023, and the overall domestic demand for chloroform will be weak.

According to the methane chloride data analysts of the business society, the demand for chloroform at the end of the peak season is generally weak, and the pressure on the supply side is expected to increase in the later period, but the higher methanol price is supported by the cost side, and the chloroform market is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

Product Name: Urea

Latest price (July 27th): 2545.71 yuan/ton

On July 27th, the comprehensive price of urea in China slightly increased, increasing by 80.71 yuan/ton or 3.27% compared to July 26th, with a year-on-year increase of 4.76%. The price of upstream Yangquan Anthracite (washing block) is about 1010 yuan/ton, rising slightly, with good cost support. International urea prices have risen, and India has released a new round of bidding information, driving up domestic urea prices. At the same time, agricultural demand is good, while industrial demand is mainly for procurement. Urea supply is sufficient, and manufacturers issue orders smoothly.

In the future, it is expected that the domestic urea market price may fluctuate slightly, with an average market price of around 2600 yuan/ton.