The price of ethylene oxide decreased in April

According to data from Business News Agency, on April 25, 2023, the average spot market price of ethylene oxide in China was 6500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.72% compared to the beginning of the month; Compared to the beginning of the year, the price was 6800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.41%.

Overview of ethylene oxide industry chain

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price center of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer has shifted downward. The production enthusiasm of polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high, and the demand for ethylene oxide is weakened.

Future Market Forecast

The terminal demand is lower than expected, and the production capacity utilization rate of the main downstream polycarboxylate water reducing agent monomer enterprises is not high; The demand for ethylene oxide is expected to deteriorate. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ethylene oxide will continue the current trend, with weak fluctuations being the main trend.

Product name: Potassium chloride (imported)

Latest price (April 24th): 3400 yuan/ton

On April 24, the price of imported potassium chloride in the domestic market rose slightly, 50 yuan/ton or 1.49% higher than that on April 21. At present, the port’s 62% self raised price of white potassium is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton; The self raised price of 60% Dahong granules at the port is around 3100-3300 yuan/ton. Border trade accounts for 62% of Russian white potassium at around 2800-2900 yuan/ton. The arrival price of potassium chloride in domestic salt lakes is around 3100-3200 yuan/ton. The international potassium fertilizer market has slightly declined. The downstream market for potassium carbonate and potassium nitrate has recently experienced a slight decline, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

In the future, domestic potassium chloride prices may fluctuate slightly and fall, with consolidation being the main trend. The import market value of potassium chloride is about 3200 yuan/ton.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on April 23 was 97.30, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 31.79% from the cycle’s highest point of 142.64 points (2021-11-01), and an increase of 15.39% from the lowest point of 84.32 points on August 18, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to April 1st, 2019 to present)

From the above figure, it can be seen that the market for polyaluminum chloride has been declining for more than three consecutive months and is still continuing its downward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, during the week of April 17-23, 2023, the solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China continued to fluctuate slightly and decline. On April 17, the market reported 1828.75 yuan/ton, while on April 23, the market reported 1800 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.57%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas is normal, with sufficient spot inventory. Downstream procurement demand continues to be weak, and market transactions are average. The market for polyaluminum chloride continues to be weak.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market remained stable at around 198 yuan/ton from April 17th to 23rd. From the supply side, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market situation of upstream liquid chlorine has significantly declined, and cost support is insufficient; The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened. It is expected that hydrochloric acid will experience a slight fluctuation and decline in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, domestic liquefied natural gas prices remained volatile and upward from April 17th to 23rd. Among them, on April 17th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4206 yuan/ton, and on April 23rd, the average price was 4524 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 7.56%. Recently, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has been improving, and downstream stocking demand is constantly increasing. The increase in raw gas prices has led to positive cost support and a strong bullish atmosphere in the industry. It is expected that domestic liquefied natural gas prices will continue to rise in the short term.

Future Market Forecast: The market for raw material hydrochloric acid has remained stable in the near future, with increased fuel costs and increased cost support. However, due to the current abundant stock of polyaluminum chloride in the market, downstream demand continues to be weak under the current economic situation, and market transactions continue to be weak. It is expected that the future market for polyaluminum chloride will continue to decline slightly in a stable manner.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of April 19th, the average price quoted by domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid enterprises was 3875.00 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to last Friday (April 14th).

Recently, the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market has remained high and stable. Recently, the price of raw material sulfuric acid has dropped, and the market for raw material methanol is relatively strong. The cost support is limited. The downstream pesticide, rubber, leather, and pharmaceutical industries purchase goods according to market demand, with rigid demand being the main focus. The focus of negotiations in the formic acid market is stable.

Upstream product: upstream sulfuric acid. On April 18, the price of domestic sulfuric acid market fell slightly, 13.33 yuan/ton, 5.03% lower than that on April 17, 79.11% lower than that on the same period last year; Upstream methanol, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference price for methanol on April 18th was 2540.83, a decrease of 0.81% compared to April 1st (2561.67).

Business Society formic acid analysts believe that the current cost support is average, and market transactions are mainly based on demand. It is expected that the domestic industrial grade 85% formic acid market will remain stable in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 18th, the mainstream factory price of domestic refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 8139.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.58% compared to April 1st at 7636.50 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha is around 8000-8200 yuan/ton.

As of April 18th, the mainstream factory price of locally refined straight-run naphtha in China was 7914.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.08% compared to April 1st at 7604.00 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price of locally refined straight-run naphtha was around 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

On April 18th, the naphtha commodity index was 100.45, an increase of 0.15 points from yesterday, a decrease of 17.42% from the cycle’s highest point of 121.64 points (2022-03-10), and an increase of 137.81% from the lowest point of 42.24 points on July 19th, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2012 to the present)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In April, the price of refined naphtha fluctuated and increased, and the terminal restructuring just needed replenishment. Some ethylene demand was concentrated and released, and refineries were actively shipping, resulting in good market trading.

The international crude oil market has fluctuated and risen. On the one hand, on April 2nd, Saudi Arabia, together with several major oil producing countries, announced a voluntary reduction of over 1.6 million barrels per day from May to the end of 2023 outside the OPEC+agreement. This news has affected a significant increase in crude oil prices. On the other hand, the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased, boosting international oil prices. Data released by the US Department of Labor shows a decrease in US March CPI data, which means that the pace of inflation in the US has slowed down, and the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates has eased. Investors expect the Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike cycle to come to an end, which has affected the trend of international oil prices. Finally, the strong demand for crude oil in China has further strengthened the market’s bullish expectations.

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the price of toluene continued to rise in April. On April 1st, the price of toluene was 7080.00 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, it was 7590.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.20%. The market news has strong support, and there is a strong positive atmosphere in the toluene market. The attitude of the industry towards high prices remains unchanged. The price of mixed xylene continues to rise, with a price of 7570 yuan/ton on April 1st and 7880 yuan/ton on April 18th, an increase of 4.10%. The price of PX has increased. On April 1st, the price was 8800 yuan/ton, and on April 18th, the price was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.10%. Recently, the overall operation of the PX device has been stable, and the supply of goods on site is normal. The sales situation is good, the market is stable, and the price trend is temporarily stable.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts from Business Society believe that the price of refined naphtha in April has fluctuated and increased, mainly due to the increase in international crude oil prices and the urgent need for terminal restructuring replenishment. Some ethylene demand has been released in a concentrated manner, but currently international crude oil prices have fallen. The release of terminal demand has been basically completed in the early stage, and refinery inventory is low, with active shipments. It is expected that refined naphtha will be mainly sorted out in the near future.