According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic 1 # lead ingot market fluctuated at a low level in March 2026, with an average price of 16655 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16425 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decline of 1.38%.
On March 30th, the Business Society Lead Index was 99.84, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.50% from the highest point of 134.01 points (November 29, 2016) during the cycle, and an increase of 33.78% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to present)
In March, lead prices showed a pattern of “low volatility, bottom and top”, with core fluctuations revolving around “macro suppression+supply and demand game+new regulations for delivery of recycled lead futures”.
Macro factors
On a macro level, there is a clear trend of suppression, with the US dollar index rising four times to near the 100 mark, reaching a new high in nearly April. For lead prices, the strong US dollar directly suppresses them, while the demand for commodity preservation driven by inflation concerns provides a small amount of support. Under the long short game, the overall price is under pressure to decline.
supply side
In March, the domestic production rate of primary lead gradually recovered, but due to restrictions on the supply of lead concentrate, the processing fees for lead concentrate remained low, which constrained the release of primary lead production capacity; Recycled lead enterprises have maintained low production levels due to losses, coupled with the implementation of the new national standard for recycled lead on March 1st, which has pushed up production costs. The growth of recycled lead supply is weak, and the overall supply side shows a pattern of “recovery but limited”, without forming obvious supply pressure, but also unable to support price increases.
Starting from March 17th, recycled lead ingots will be included in lead futures delivery as a substitute (PB2703 contract will be implemented), with a discount of 150 yuan/ton on standard products. This policy has a significant impact on lead prices this month and has become the core driving force behind the accelerated decline in the medium term. In the short term, the expansion of delivery products has led to a shift in market pricing logic towards a combination of “native+renewable” pricing. The cheapest delivery product dominates the lower limit of lead prices, directly suppressing the central prices of futures and spot prices, resulting in an accelerated decline in prices after March 17th; In the medium to long term, the inclusion of recycled lead in delivery has solved the problem of mismatched hedging standards for recycled lead enterprises, improved industry transparency, and at the same time, the cost of recycled lead will provide stronger bottom support for lead prices, smoothing price fluctuations and reducing the occurrence of extreme market conditions.
Demand side
The operating rate of lead-acid batteries remains relatively high, mainly supported by the demand for stock replacement. However, the traditional off-season for consumption in the second quarter is approaching, and downstream enterprises only maintain on-demand procurement at low prices, without the willingness to concentrate on stocking up. Insufficient incremental demand has become the main constraint on price increases.
Inventory end
The inventory side is showing a trend of “continuous depletion”, providing key bottom support for lead prices and easing the mid-term decline. In March, the social inventory of domestic lead ingots gradually decreased, with a significant decline in the inventory of primary lead factories. The reluctance of holders to sell increased, providing some support for spot prices.
Prediction of future trends
Looking ahead to April, the arrival of the traditional off-season for consumption will tilt the balance towards the demand side, and there is a risk of a slight downward shift in the price center. However, with the support of rigid costs, the downward space for lead prices is limited, and it is expected to show a weak and volatile trend.
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