1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business news agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market has a positive trend recently. As of May 27, the average price of domestic potassium sulfate 50 particle samples was 3050.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.81% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and an increase of 11.93% compared with the same period last year.

Previously, the price position of potassium sulfate had been in a higher position after the positive market accumulation in March and April. Since May, it has been dominated by a horizontal stalemate. Recently, the domestic spot price of potassium sulfate has risen significantly. In terms of operation rate, the plant load of domestic potassium sulfate Mannheim enterprises is still on the low side, with little change compared with the previous stage, and the overall operation rate is more than 70%. Shijiazhuang hehe chemical 52% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 3200 yuan / ton. Shijiazhuang Haofang chemical 50% potassium sulfate powder factory reference price of 2950 yuan / ton. Hebei Gaoqiao agricultural potassium sulfate 52% powder factory reference price of 3200 yuan / ton. Manufacturers mainly meet the early orders and direct sales customers. Potassium chloride also rose, domestic spot and port arrival rose at the same time, supply side is partial compact, potassium chloride market or high consolidation is expected. Back to potassium sulfate, the current cost support is strengthened, and the processing type potassium sulfate manufacturers are rising upstream. However, the demand side reaction was general, and the consumption of potassium sulfate was not large.

3、 Future forecast

The potassium sulfate analyst of business news agency thinks: the price of potassium chloride and potassium nitrate has risen in the near future, and the domestic potassium sulfate cost support has been strengthened, and the price has risen in the near future. Due to the pressure of production, businesses are willing to support the price. At present, the response of end users to the increase of potassium sulfate supply is weak, and the fluency of trading needs further observation. It is expected that the domestic potassium sulfate price will continue to run sideways in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the block data list of business news agency, the average price of domestic phosphoric acid on May 26 was 5750 yuan / ton, up 466 yuan from 5283 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 8.83% in the month, and up 10.58% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

In May, the phosphoric acid market was relatively stable in the first half of the month and fluctuated in a narrow range in the second half of the month. This month’s rise was mainly caused by the rising price of raw material yellow phosphorus. At present, the price of yellow phosphorus is about 25000 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is short. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost, and the price linkage rises. The enterprise’s rise range is about 350-1100 yuan / ton, which quickly rises to a high level. Take Ronghong chemical industry as an example, the latest price is 6400 yuan / ton, and some enterprises also suffer from the decline of starting load due to the high price of raw materials, However, when the offer is closed and the report is stopped, most of the companies are in a wait-and-see situation, and the downstream still needs to purchase, with few high price transactions. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of May 26, the quotation in Sichuan was 5450-6000 yuan / ton, that in Yunnan was 6200 yuan / ton, that in Beijing was 4800 yuan / ton, that in Hubei was 5600-6200 yuan / ton, that in Tianjin was 6400 yuan / ton, that in Fujian was 6500 yuan / ton, and that in Henan was 5500-5600 yuan / ton, The price of phosphoric acid rose sharply.

In late May, the domestic phosphorus ore maintained a high consolidation operation. On May 25, the reference price of phosphorus ore was 510.00, up 6.25% compared with that on May 1 (480.00). At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the market is good, and the yellow phosphorus Market in the lower reaches is also slightly pushed up, which is effectively supported by the upper and lower reaches. Therefore, the phosphorus ore analysts of the business community believe that, In the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market will continue to be strong.

Yellow phosphorus, in late May, the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly. Affected by drought, lack of water and power restriction in Yunnan, the power of yellow phosphorus enterprises in some areas was less than 20%! Recently, power rationing has not been alleviated, but has become more and more serious. More yellow phosphorus plants are shut down, the shortage of spot goods is aggravating, and some manufacturers have temporarily stopped making external quotations. On the demand side, the downstream glyphosate price continued to rise, which was acceptable to the high price of yellow phosphorus, and played a certain role in boosting the price rise of yellow phosphorus.

3、 Future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analysts of Shangshe chemical branch, the market price of raw material yellow phosphorus has continued to rise in recent days, most of which have closed the offer and stopped reporting, and the phosphoric acid market has risen to a high level. It is expected that the price will still rise in the short term, and we need to pay close attention to the change of raw material price.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the comprehensive price of potassium chloride is temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2525.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 80.16 on May 21.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers is temporarily stable: the ex factory quotation of Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride at the weekend is 2400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend sales offer 2650 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the overall trend of potassium chloride market may fluctuate slightly. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

As of May 23, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4687.50 yuan / ton (including tax), up 0.81% from 4600.00 yuan / ton on May 17, according to the data of business news agency.

On May 23, the fuel oil commodity index was 94.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.09% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 106.03% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

The decline of domestic marine oil raw materials has limited support for fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of May 23, the 180 CST self provided low sulfur price of fuel oil in Zhoushan was 4650 yuan / ton, and the 120 CST self provided low sulfur price of fuel oil was 4750 yuan / ton; The price of 180 CST self provided low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 4700 yuan / ton, and that of 120 CST self provided low sulfur fuel oil is 4800 yuan / ton.

The sharp drop in international oil prices is mainly due to the market’s concern that the surge of new cases in Asia will further depress the demand for crude oil, as well as the expectation that the new progress of the US Iran nuclear agreement will release increased supply; In addition, the probability of US inflation causing the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased, supporting the price of fuel oil. It is understood that Singapore’s enterprise development board (ESG): in the week ending May 19, Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.416 million barrels, to a three week high of 24.96 million barrels.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that the recent price rise of fuel oil 180CST is mainly affected by the addition of consumption tax on some refined oil products, but the market transaction is light, the terminal shipping demand is weak, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the demand for fuel oil 180CST is mainly on demand. Business enthusiasm for raw material procurement is not high, market turnover is low, and fuel oil 180CST market is expected to be stable in the near future.

According to statistics, the domestic ammonium nitrate price rose this week. By the end of the week, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price was 3260 yuan / ton, 0.62% higher than the price of 3240 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, 39.91% higher than the same period last year. On May 20, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 171.58, up 1.05 points from yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 121.77% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate reached a historical high. The start-up of domestic ammonium nitrate plants was generally normal, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the plant was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the price of upstream raw materials rose, and the factory price reached a record high. Recently, the supply of goods in the plant was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate rose. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start to work normally, and the price trend of some manufacturers increases greatly. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 3000-3200 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2500-2800 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3800-4000 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 2250 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2250 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 2200 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2400 yuan / ton. Shaanxi Xinghua quoted 2150 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic maintenance units have been running normally, the supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the delivery of goods in the yard is general, the price trend of nitric acid in the yard is stable, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate in the market is rising.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with 3900 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.91% from 3846.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard was normal, the spot supply in the yard was normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market rose. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia rose in Shandong. Due to the decline of inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remained at a reasonable level, and there was a certain price difference with other regions in China, the price of liquid ammonia decreased slightly. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. In the lower reaches, the agricultural fertilizer use has increased, the demand in the lower reaches is general, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate remains high.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market rises slightly. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate in the market is general, and the cost rise has a certain positive effect. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may maintain a high and stable level in the future.