1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the average price of domestic LNG on May 8 was 3070 yuan / ton, up 0.66% from the beginning of this week, 0.44% from the beginning of this month, and 5.86% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

At the end of the May Day holiday, the restrictions on the transportation of high-speed dangerous chemicals were lifted, and the domestic LNG market rose slightly. The liquid plants adjusted their quotations according to the shipment situation. The market showed a mixed situation of rise and fall. On May 8, the market continued to rise, with a one-day rise of 0.66%. Many places, such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi, Sichuan, Ningxia, etc., rose in a large area, with the increase generally concentrated in the range of 20-100 yuan / ton. Due to the continuous price reduction in the early stage, the inventory of the liquid plant is generally not high, and the increase of planned maintenance enterprises in the near future, the market supply is slightly tightened, and the downstream replenishment after the festival and other favorable factors, the manufacturer’s shipment is improved, and the price is positively pushed up, but restricted by the off-season factors, it is not easy to have a large increase, mainly with small fluctuations.

On May 8, the domestic LNG market rebounded and rose, with 2950-3250 yuan / T in Inner Mongolia, 3050-3250 yuan / T in Shaanxi, 3100-3320 yuan / T in Shanxi, 3020-3100 yuan / T in Ningxia, 3450-3490 yuan / T in Henan, 3030-3350 yuan / T in Hebei, and 3300-3450 yuan / T in Sichuan. The liquid prices in various regions generally rose.

region Specifications May 8th April 30th Up and down

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 2950-3250 2900-3150 Up 100-250

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 3050-3250 3030-3220 Up 30-170

Shanxi liquified natural gas 3100-3320 3100-3250 Up 70-120

Ningxia liquified natural gas 3020-3100 3080-3150 Down 50-70

Henan Province liquified natural gas 3450-3490 3300-3410 Up 80-150

Hebei liquified natural gas 3030-3200 3150-3250 Down 50-80

Sichuan liquified natural gas 3300-3450 3070-3300 Up 0-150

Downstream products are mixed:

On May 8, the ex factory quotation of methanol enterprises in Shandong Province was raised, and the negotiation price of methanol market in southern Shandong Province increased by 10 yuan / ton to 2520-2540 yuan / ton. Linyi receives the local goods to negotiate the price to 2520-2530 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange, while the logistics goods offer the price to 2470-2480 yuan / ton and deliver them to the spot exchange. Enterprise inventory is not high, the mentality is strong, but the downstream is mainly the implementation of the contract. The mainstream price of Shandong methanol in Lubei market is 2470-2490 yuan / ton, which is delivered to cash. There is no obvious empty order, so the contract is mainly executed. The offer of methanol market in central Shandong temporarily maintains 2480-2500 yuan / ton, which is sent to spot exchange. The transaction is general, so wait and see for the moment.

Liquid ammonia. On May 8, the market of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was stable, and the market atmosphere was still cold. At present, the inventory pressure of the region’s goods source was acceptable, but the region was in the accumulation stage. The quotation of large factories in Shandong Province was stable, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers was general. The mainstream price in this region was 3650-3800 yuan / ton. At present, the production of liquid ammonia by manufacturers in the region is moderate, and the overall inventory pressure in the region has stabilized. It is expected that the price will stabilize in the near future.

Dichloromethane, on May 7, the market quotation of methane chloride in Shandong area was adjusted, and the quotation of manufacturers was slightly adjusted. The main factory quotation of dichloromethane was about 3470-3570 yuan / ton, and the main factory quotation of trichloromethane was about 3870-3930 yuan / ton. The market transaction was relatively stable.

3、 Future forecast

Liquefied natural gas analysts of business news agency believe that: at present, the inventory of liquid plants is generally not high, coupled with the increase of planned maintenance enterprises in the near future, the market supply is slightly tightened, and the downstream replenishment after the festival and other favorable factors, manufacturers are strongly in the mood of price support and pushing up. It is expected that the domestic liquefied natural gas market will continue to rise in the short term, but restricted by off-season factors, the rise is limited.

According to the data monitoring of business society, as of May 7, the reference average price of 30% of the mainstream areas of phosphate ore in China is around 500 yuan / T, and the average price is increased by 20 yuan / ton, or 4.17% compared with the price on May 1, and 54 yuan / ton, or 11.94% higher than that of April 1 (the average price of phosphate reference is 446 yuan / ton).

At the beginning of 2021, the recovery of domestic phosphate ore market was slow. After entering spring, the recovery of phosphate rock market entered a stable mode. After the general increase of domestic phosphate rock price in March, it entered April, and the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places increased twice in succession, and the overall trading atmosphere of the mine site returned to a clear temperature.

After the supply shortage, the price of phosphate rock in Guizhou Province is close to the high end again

After the labor Festival, on June, some mining enterprises in Guizhou province raised the factory price of phosphate ore again, up 10-60 yuan / ton. The reason for the price increase is mainly due to the low inventory of mining enterprises in Guizhou, tight market supply, high price operation of mining enterprises, and the market transaction closing to high-end price successively, after adjustment, The basic quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore market in Guizhou Province is 410-470 yuan / ton, the price of high-end car plate rises to 480 yuan / T, the half price of 28% high-end phosphorous ore car plate rises to 420 yuan / T, and the price of 22% grade phosphate ore in Kaiyang area is 250 yuan / ton. After the festival, the market of phosphate rock in other areas is basically stable. Yunnan Province: 28% of the price of ammonium phosphate car plate is around 280-290 yuan / ton; Hubei: the price of 30% grade phosphate ore shipboard is 440-460 yuan / ton.

In the downstream Yellow Phosphorus aspect, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose in April. Due to environmental factors, Yunnan factory parking, yellow phosphorus spot is more tense. In mid April, the downstream of May 1st Labor Day began to prepare goods, and the price of yellow phosphorus rose rapidly, and the new single price gradually increased. Entering the high price arrangement in the late ten days, the pre festival market mainly focused on the supply of pre-season orders, and some enterprises have not quoted foreign prices and suspended receipt of documents. After the labor Festival, the domestic yellow phosphorus market continued to run at a high level after the labor Festival. The mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus was about 17600-17800 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Sichuan is about 17700 yuan / ton; The main quotation in Guizhou is about 17800 yuan / ton.

The operation of high-level finishing in short-term phosphorus ore market

At present, after the price of phosphate ore market in Guizhou Province has closed to a high level, it is heard that Hubei mining enterprises also intend to increase the quotation recently, but at present, the downstream has a wait-and-see attitude towards high quotation. Therefore, it is still to be seen whether the market of phosphorus ore can continue to rise. The analysts of phosphorus ore in business society recognize that the power of maintaining high-level operation of phosphorus ore market in the short term is sufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak. The average price of Shandong market was about 490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 457.5 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a price drop of 6.63% and 6.15% compared with the same period last year. On May 6, the commodity index of caustic soda was 65.83, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 68.18% compared with 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and increased by 1.11% compared with 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Market analysis

In April, the price of caustic soda was weak as a whole. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak, and the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-490 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is tepid, the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future. In Hebei area, the market of caustic soda fluctuates mainly in a narrow range. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 460-590 yuan / ton. The company’s shipment is general, and the downstream receiving situation is light and stable, with a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that caustic soda will continue to operate with small fluctuation in the future.

Upstream: the price of domestic liquid chlorine market is down this month, the market trend is weak, and the wait-and-see mentality is strong. Downstream: from the downstream of caustic soda to the end of demand, aluminum, paper and other industries adhere to demand-based procurement, wait-and-see attitude is still strong. The price of caustic soda lacks strong support, and the price of caustic soda is weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in April 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 2 kinds of commodities falling, and 1 kind of commodities with zero rise and fall in the price list of chlor alkali industry. The main commodities rising were calcium carbide (8.33%) and PVC (3.17%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 6.85%) and caustic soda (- 6.63%). The average rise and fall this month was – 0.4%.

Business analysts believe that recently, the price of upstream liquid chlorine has declined, and now the shipment of caustic soda enterprises is tepid, and the situation of downstream reception is weak and stable, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. The actual transaction atmosphere is light, and it is expected that caustic soda will still fluctuate slightly in the future, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 25, the price of toluene was 5671 yuan / ton; The price on Friday (April 30) was 5697 yuan / ton, up 26 yuan / ton or 0.46% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Toluene inventories at ports in East China fell this week. The downstream news is weak, just need to buy before the festival, and the negotiation is weak. In terms of external market, as of April 30, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23; The price of imported toluene in East China was 725 US dollars / ton, up 10 US dollars / ton, or 1.4%, from April 23.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + decided to maintain the policy of gradually increasing production, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 23, Brent rose $1.46/barrel, or 2.23%; WTI rose $1.34 per barrel, or 2.16%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell slightly this week, with domestic goods at 15666.67 yuan / ton, down 0.63% from last week and up 57.72% from the same period last year. In the domestic market consolidation operation, the operators hold a wait-and-see attitude, the atmosphere in the market is weak, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high.

In the PX market, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price remained stable this week, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. The operation of p-xylene units in North and East China is stable as a whole. The on-site operation rate is more than 90%. The on-site supply is normal and the goods are in good condition. The on-site operation rate is about 50% in Northwest China and more than 50% in South China. As of April 29, the closing prices in Asia were US $858-860 / T FOB Korea and US $876-878 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

Crude oil is expected to run stronger, supporting toluene prices; It is difficult for downstream products to provide demand support, and some downstream devices have maintenance plans. Overall, the trend of toluene is expected to be weak after the festival. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, aniline was running stably within the week. On April 25, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. On April 30, the price of aniline in Shandong was 10600-10800 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing was 11000 yuan / ton. The average price was the same as last week, up 35.86% from the beginning of the year and 123.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, in the first half of this week, pure benzene followed the trend of styrene, rose first and then fell, the delivery price of styrene at the end of the month rose, and pure benzene followed the trend; After the fall of demand, the market center of pure benzene weakened. In the second half of the week, due to the preparation of pure benzene before the festival and the active downstream procurement, the inventory of some enterprises continued to decline and the market price strengthened. This week, Sinopec’s listing price increased by 100 yuan / ton to 7400 yuan / ton, with strong bottom support and strong market mentality. On Friday (April 30), the price of pure benzene was 7350-7500 yuan / ton (the average price was 7410 yuan / ton), which was 130 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 1.79%; It was 145.36% higher than that of the same period last year.

The price of nitric acid this week was flat compared with last week. On Friday (April 30), the price of nitric acid production in East China was 2300 yuan / ton, up 12.2% compared with the beginning of the month and 56.82% compared with the same period last year.

The price of aniline was very high in this week. On the demand side, the downstream procurement before this week’s festival supported the price of aniline; In terms of devices, Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong devices are restarted, and the on-site supply is expected to increase; In terms of cost, the price of pure benzene rose continuously, and the bidding price of enterprises rose, which was good for aniline.

3、 Future expectation

In terms of cost and supply, the pure benzene market is expected to remain tight in May. In terms of inventory, the arrival of goods at the end of the month was concentrated, and the main port inventory in East China began to accumulate, but the increment was not high. In terms of external market, Europe and the United States will maintain supply tension in the short term, with strong external support. Overall, it is expected to maintain a strong trend in May. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market (mainly styrene inventory, demand changes), domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

Dongying Huatai and Jiangsu Yangnong plants restart, and the market supply is expected to increase. However, Shanxi Tianji and Nanjing chemical plants have maintenance plans in May, which are expected to offset the negative effect brought by increased supply. Cost side is expected to maintain a strong trend, supporting aniline prices. Downstream demand reduction or drag aniline Market. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the follow-up of downstream demand and the impact of aniline plant dynamics on aniline price.