1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of EPS common material was 11075 yuan / ton on March 8 at the beginning of this week, and 11050 yuan / ton on March 12 at the weekend, up 22.78% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of the week, crude oil and other bulk commodities were strong, styrene was on the rise, crude oil and other bulk commodities in the middle of the week were significantly callback, styrene futures and spot were on the decline. As of March 11, Jiangsu styrene spot was about 9300 yuan / ton, down 375 yuan / ton or 3.88% compared with the closing price of 9675 yuan / ton on March 4.

After the styrene correction, the EPS ex factory price dropped sharply, the transaction of low price source was acceptable before the festival, the conflict of high price source was obvious, the recovery of terminal operation was not ideal, the merchants took delivery slowly, the inventory pressure of some EPS factories was obvious, and the overall transaction atmosphere of the market was not good. As of March 11, Jiangyin Jianlong’s ordinary materials had been delivered at 10900 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis, while its fuel had been delivered at 11200 yuan / ton, which was stable on a month on month basis. Some downstream parts of EPS have not yet returned to the market, and the downstream construction is slow to increase. In addition, the cost pressure is obvious, so the market demand is expected to increase slowly next week.

3、 Future forecast

East China’s main port inventory is expected to decline, the market is long short deadlock, styrene is expected to be stronger next week, EPS market is expected to be stronger next week.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated and fell this week. The spot nickel price was 122750 yuan / ton, down 2.45% from 125833.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, down 4.2% from the beginning of the year, up 22.44% year on year. At the beginning of this week, Shanghai nickel mainly opened at 122700, and then the price fluctuated in a narrow range, closing at 120950 on Friday, down 0.66%. Lunni closed at $16160 by Friday’s deadline, down 1.31% for the week.

2、 Market analysis

Previously, due to the successful trial production of high nickel matte, or lead to reshaping the nickel industry pattern, the nickel price was hit hard, and the price plummeted continuously. However, the actual impact of this event still has a certain period of time, and there are many uncertain factors in the future. After the bad consumption, the nickel price gradually stabilized. On the supply side, the rainy season in the Philippines is not over, and the domestic nickel port inventory continues to decline; new items of ferronickel in Indonesia are released, and the new output flows back to China; the price of stainless steel raw material high carbon ferrochrome rises due to the power restriction policy in Inner Mongolia, the cost center moves up, and the price is supported below; the battery orders continue to improve, driven by the new energy automobile industry, and the raw material supply is saved due to the innovation of new technology application Shift from tight to loose expectations.

Future forecast: nickel price is expected to remain in the range of 120000-130000 in the near future.

Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market had a correction in early March, and the spot prices of various brands returned to calm. As of March 11, the mainstream offer price of general ABS was around 18100 yuan / ton, a 3.21% decrease compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a 4.93% increase compared with the same period last month.

Factor analysis:

ABS upstream styrene, the current market after the rapid rise of the domestic market in February, into early March, the chemical sector showed a trend of first up and then down. During the Spring Festival, international crude oil prices continued to be positive, and styrene cost support was strong. In the early stage, the main factors for the rise are macro inflation, upstream pull caused by crude oil surge, supply tension caused by external emergencies, and the expected increase of domestic demand. From the perspective of business community, the chemical industry index will be rationally adjusted for a period of time, and the price of raw materials will gradually find a balance under the influence of currency and supply and demand.

At the beginning of March, the trend of domestic butadiene market was relatively positive, and it was stable as a whole in the first ten days. During the Spring Festival last month, international crude oil prices continued to rise, saving the butadiene market which started at a low level in January 2021. Downstream rubber industry demand is strong, coupled with the merchants reluctant to sell, butadiene market push up atmosphere is obvious. In early March, we heard that the export of domestic products increased, which strengthened market confidence. However, at present, the supply of goods is getting warmer and more abundant than in the previous period. It is expected that the short-term market will perform high and firm.

The current ABS cost side market is different, ABS spot price began to fall in early March. At present, the operating rate of petrochemical enterprises is almost full load, and the supply side tends to be sufficient. In the early stage, the supply of crude oil and chemical bulk products was tightened, and the disk was strong outside and weak inside. At present, the positive effect is suspected to be exhausted. At present, the spot price of ABS is relatively high, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, especially the resistance to high price goods is heavy. I heard that the inventory of the society has increased, and the delivery operation of the merchants has also increased.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: in early March, ABS market high callback, all brands offer down. The trend of cost is different, and the support for ABS cost is weakened. At present, the spot supply is getting warmer, the demand side is in a relatively off-season, there is no seasonal demand blessing, and the downstream factories maintain just need to purchase. The resistance of high price source of goods is large, but the cost pressure of ABS is still in, and it is expected that the domestic ABS price will slightly callback.

According to business news agency data, on March 10, the average price of silver market in the morning was 5330 yuan / kg, up 2.83% in the day, down 2.74% from 5480.33 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (March 1), and 3.96% from 5550 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the year (01.01).

On March 10, the spot price of gold was 360.90 yuan / g, up 1.28% in the day, down 1.29% compared with the average price of 365.60 yuan / g in the early morning of the month (3.1), and down 8.10% compared with the spot price of 392.70 yuan / g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Double the market and cut the precious metals to usher in a long short game point

Since November 2015, the rising trend of precious metals has reached its peak in August 2020, with the highest increase of 90-100%. After the doubling of the market, the price of gold has been falling all the way, reaching a new low in October, and the price of silver has also fallen to the low range in early January. Today, the price of precious metals both stop falling and rise. When the increase is reduced to 50% – 60%, will the price of precious metals usher in an inflection point?

 
Business analyst Ye Jianjun believes that precious metal prices usher in a long short game point. In the long run, the real interest rate will remain low, the central banks of developed economies will continue to buy government debt, the industrial demand will increase, the demand for silver in the disinfection and medical industries, and the consumer demand for jewelry and gold and silver ware will also increase.

Recently, the price of silver is relatively stronger than that of gold, mainly based on two factors. On the one hand, the news of silver’s closing down, similar to Gamestop, boosted silver’s price to rise sharply in the middle and late January of this year. Looking back at the historical trend of silver’s price, we can see that silver’s price has been greatly affected by the fluctuation of investment sentiment, and the short-term speculative atmosphere with silver as the subject matter is more intense and the amplitude is greater. On the other hand, silver’s price has been greatly affected by the fluctuation of investment sentiment On the other hand, silver has a strong industrial attribute. In recent years, the trend of bulk metal commodities has been rapid after the year, and they have risen to the historical high in recent years. The strong support of silver price comes from fundamental factors. For example, the increasing demand for solar panels in the automotive industry and other industrial uses will boost the demand for silver in the future.

Short term focus

1. The impact of high commodity price correction on the sentiment of precious metal prices.

2. The impact of the US Treasury’s launch of a new round of US $120 billion treasury bond auction on the bond yield and the impact of us CPI data. If U.S. bond yields rise and investors are more optimistic about U.S. economic growth, the precious metal market will be under pressure.

3. Whether the investment demand is narrowed. According to the data of the world gold association, the global gold ETF outflow in February was 84.7 tons, which was the third net outflow of gold ETF in nearly four months. According to the data of the world gold association, the global gold ETF outflow in February was 84.7 tons, which was the third net outflow of gold ETF in nearly four months.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: p-value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of the business club’s block list, as of March 9, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11866.67 yuan / ton, up 5.01% compared with the price at the beginning of the month, up 8.87% compared with February 9, and down 5.07% compared with January 1.

The market price of epichlorohydrin has risen since the beginning of March. At present, the price of propylene is rising, and the cost support of epichlorohydrin is strengthened. The market attitude of price support in the market appears, and the focus of market negotiation moves up. However, the downstream buying is just needed, and the market atmosphere is deadlocked.

As of March 8, the market price of propylene in Shandong has obviously picked up. According to the price chart of the business club, affected by the upstream and downstream, the propylene price rose again and again in the second half of February, which was at a high level for many years. It remained stable at the end of the month and the beginning of the month. The price began to decline on the 4th. Today, the price generally rebounded, up 100-150 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 8350-8650 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 8350 yuan / ton.

As of March 8, the downstream epoxy resin has been running as a whole in the high level section. Bisphenol A, the raw material, has stopped falling and rebounded, cost support has been strengthened, and manufacturers’ mentality has been supported. However, downstream companies are cautious about high prices and maintain just need replenishment. At present, the price reference of East China liquid epoxy resin negotiation is 31000-32000 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to epichlorohydrin analysts of business news agency, at present, the holding companies are pushing up, and the downstream just needs to purchase. The inquiry is slightly general. However, supported by the high level of raw materials, it is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may be deadlocked in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market information guidance.