The same as last week’s market, prices continue to stabilize this week. At present, the mainstream prices in East China are 7500 yuan / ton, 7650 yuan / ton in North China, 7500 yuan / ton in South China, 7700 yuan / ton in Central China, and 7450-7550 yuan / ton in Northeast China.

External data showed that the CFR Northeast Asian price of ethylene reached $990.00/ton yesterday (17th). With the high price of raw materials, the cost load of ethylene oxide has increased greatly, and the enterprises are operating under pressure. Some enterprises have reduced their production load, and the supply pattern is hard to change. The price of ethylene glycol has a strong trend due to the influence of reducing the storage. It is learned from market participants that the current monomer price has reached about 8700-8900, which is in the off-season of the industry. In addition, due to the severe haze in recent years, many provinces and cities in China have promoted the rectification of environmental protection problems, and logistics transportation is greatly restricted. The bearish prospect of monomer demand may continue to depress ethylene oxide and exert downward pressure.

High price of raw materials but low demand, resulting in epoxy resin is difficult to improve at present, the market focus shifted downward.

Price trend of spot precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average price of silver on December 17 was 5215.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 10.62% compared with the average price of 4715 yuan / kg in the spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); the spot price of silver was 4376.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the year (01.01), an increase of 19.18%; the spot price of silver was 2942.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 77.24% over the peak value of 8.11 The spot price of silver was 6708.33 yuan / kg, down 22.25%.

On December 17, the spot price of gold was 387.04 yuan / g, an increase of 3.84% compared with the average price of 372.71 yuan / G on the spot market at the beginning of the month (12.1); the spot price of gold was 342.54 yuan / g, up 12.99%; compared with the valley value (3.19), the spot price of gold was 331.75 yuan / g, up 16.67%; compared with the peak value (8.7) of the year, the spot price of silver decreased by 13.61%.

News

1. The Fed’s comments are in line with market expectations

On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kept the target range of the federal funds rate at 0-0.25%, in line with market expectations.

2. The dollar is relatively weak

The dollar index fell, and the negative correlation was highlighted.

3. Bitcoin drives convergence effect

Within the day, bitcoin soared, once setting a record high above $22000, an astonishing increase.

Future forecast

After the price of precious metals hit the bottom and rebounded in December, the current price has been close to the peak value in November after two waves of continuous rise in the beginning and middle of the month. This will basically pull back the price drop caused by the retreat of risk aversion sentiment brought by the vaccine news in November and the withdrawal of funds.

At present, the CME gold price stands at 1880-1890 US dollars / oz, and the CME silver price reaches 26 US dollars / oz, both in the early shock range, relative resistance level, and the long short game in the future market is intensified.

The news coverage focused on the development of epidemic situation in cold winter vs vaccine progress.

Trade name: chlorinated paraffin

Latest price (December 16): 5166.67 yuan / ton

Analysis points: on December 16, the overall trend of domestic chlorinated paraffin market was stable, the upstream liquid wax price was relatively stable, and the liquid chlorine market declined slightly. Downstream on-demand procurement is the main, traders take goods cautiously, wait-and-see sentiment is obvious, the market price is relatively stable. Chlorinated paraffin analysts of the business club believe that the overall market trading atmosphere of chlorinated paraffin is general, the overall production of chlorinated paraffin remains low, and the market continues the situation of weak supply and demand. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be stable in the short term.

According to reports, BASF recently sent an urgent letter saying that the supply of n-butanol in Ludwigshafen, Germany, suffered force majeure and was forced to close the factory and start repair, so it had to distribute the supply of n-butanol. The n-butanol supply in Ludwigshafen, Germany, is subject to force majeure, which will affect the downstream butyl acrylate and butyl methacrylate. The price of n-butanol rose as high as 40.3% in November. The industry expects that the domestic n-butanol market is expected to rise in the next step, and n-butanol may join the rising team again. In terms of the company, Luxi Chemical has a capacity of 450000 tons / year of n-butanol; Huachang Chemical has a production capacity of 180000 tons / year.

1、 Price trend

The price of aniline stabilized at the beginning of this week, and began to rise on Thursday, according to the data from the business club’s bulk list. On December 6, the price of aniline in Shandong was 7500-7600 yuan / ton; in Nanjing, it was 7750-7850 yuan / ton; on December 13, it was 7600-7700 yuan / ton in Shandong; and 7900-8000 yuan / ton in Nanjing, the average price was 1.09% higher than last week and 13.73% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In terms of cost, from the end of November, the main influencing factors of pure benzene price changed from styrene to crude oil and external market. With the recovery of European and American prices and the opening of the arbitrage window between Asia and the United States, the price of pure benzene in Asia has increased significantly. The good news will drive the focus of domestic pure benzene market negotiation higher. At the beginning of the week, the domestic market continued the upward trend of last week, and the price continued to rise to Wednesday, up 4.57%. With the weakening of crude oil and styrene, the market mentality of pure benzene is weakening, and some low-cost goods sources in the early stage have begun to take profits and the prices are lower. From November 26 to December 13, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene increased by 600 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton, and 200 yuan / ton to 4600 yuan / ton in the week. On Monday, the total inventory of pure benzene in East China port was about 250000 tons. On this Sunday (December 13), the price of pure benzene was 4280-4650 yuan / ton (average 4556 yuan / ton), up 180 yuan / ton or 4.11% from last week.

Nitric acid prices stabilized this week. On Friday (December 13), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 1900 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 5.56% compared with the beginning of the month.

At the end of last week, aniline in Shandong Province decreased slightly by 100 yuan / ton, then stabilized and rose to Thursday. Affected by environmental protection inspection this week, Jinling and Huatai aniline plants in Shandong have been operating at reduced load. New market supply has been reduced, and prices have risen. Aniline prices in East China have followed suit.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, the supply of pure benzene in Europe and the United States is in short supply and the price remains high, which supports the price in Asia. Focus on the late crude oil, external market trend and downstream styrene market.

In winter, environmental inspection and production restriction policies were introduced, which had a certain impact on the supply and demand of aniline. Pay attention to the future trend of raw material pure benzene, the change of starting load of aniline plant and the demand change of downstream additives and MDI. It is expected that the price will rise next week.