On the afternoon of 22nd, the center of gravity of the domestic acetone market went down, and the overall wide adjustment fell a lot. Some negotiations have already dropped to less than 7000 yuan / ton, and there is no lack of position price of 6800 yuan / ton in the offer. After the centralized reduction of 200 yuan / ton by factories yesterday and the weekend, market confidence was also significantly lower. Before the festival, cargo holders made profits and actively shipped goods, and many status offers frequently appeared in the market. However, in the case of insufficient terminal purchase, supply pressure increased and trading was scarce. In addition, under the influence of the international oil price, there are still many negative factors, and the low price shipping intention is relatively large. It is estimated that the acetone market will be mainly operated in a weak way, and the market negotiation is expected to be around 6800 yuan / ton. As of the end of the previous trading day, the offers of acetone in various markets across the country were as follows:

 

Regional price rise and fall

East China 6950 – 350

7200 – 50 in Shandong

Around Yanshan mountain, 7300

7050 – 100 in South China

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The international crude oil price rebounded after the overall bottom stabilized, but the upward range was limited. In addition, the domestic oil product price decreased on September 18, and the domestic oil product market rose slightly. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on September 18 was 5529 yuan / ton, up 0.56% compared with the beginning of the week; on September 18, the price of diesel oil was 4875 yuan / ton, up 1.64% from the beginning of the week.

 

Affected by the hurricane, crude oil production in the Gulf of Mexico region declined for a short time. EIA data showed that the U.S. crude oil inventory decreased significantly, stimulating the rebound of international crude oil prices. However, Saudi Arabia lowered the official price of crude oil and faced the risk of a second outbreak in the world, resulting in weak market demand and limited increase in international oil prices.

 

In terms of gasoline demand, near the Mid Autumn Festival holiday, residents’ driving trips increased and gasoline consumption performed well. However, the decline of domestic refined oil limited the upward trend of gasoline market price. In terms of diesel demand, entering the “golden nine silver ten” peak demand season, diesel demand in engineering, infrastructure, logistics and other industries is supported, and the fishing moratorium is over, which has a certain driving effect on diesel demand, and the domestic gasoline price rises slightly.

 

On September 11, the average operating load of the daily decompression unit was about 73%, and the refinery operating load decreased slightly by 1%. The domestic oil product supply was relatively sufficient.

 

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil market has stabilized and rebounded, but the crude oil price has not been reflected sufficiently; in addition, the domestic oil product price has been lowered on Friday (September 18), and the refined oil price is expected to decline steadily.

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From September 14 to 18, 2020, the market price of coke in Shanxi will be stable temporarily, with the price at 1767.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 1767.50 yuan / ton at the weekend, which is the same as last week.

 

On September 17, the coke commodity index was 92.78, flat with yesterday, 31.29% lower than 135.04 (September 13, 2018), and 167.76% higher than the lowest point of 34.65 on March 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

Summary of domestic coke market price (unit: yuan / ton)

 

The price of regional specifications rose and fell on September 18 compared with the same period of last month

Shanghai area

Grade II metallurgical coke 2030 + 150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 2090 + 150

Xuzhou region

Grade II metallurgical coke 2000 + 150

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 2060 + 150

Weifang Area

Secondary metallurgical coke 1890 + 100

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1950 + 100

Taiyuan Area

Secondary metallurgical coke 1790 + 100

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1840 + 100

Jinzhong region

Grade II metallurgical coke 1750 + 100

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1810 + 100

Tangshan area

Secondary metallurgical coke 1880 + 100

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1930 + 100

Shenyang area

Grade II metallurgical coke 1760 + 50

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1820 + 50

 

This week, the price of coke market temporarily stable operation, the third round of rising coke steel game continued, most of the downstream steel mills did not respond, and a small part accepted the increase. Coking enterprise bullish mentality is positive, overall shipment situation is good, coke enterprise inventory is still low. Recently, the profits of coking enterprises are good, and the operating rate is higher than that of last week, mainly in North China and Northeast China. At present, the supply of coke is stable and coking enterprises are actively shipping. The lower reaches of the steel mills started higher, and the coke inventory was lower. Some steel mills accepted the increase because of limited inventory. The price of coke in Shanghai and Jiangsu increased by 50 yuan / ton this week. Most of the steel mills purchased on demand and had good demand for coke. The market was generally optimistic about the future market.

 

In terms of demand, the blast furnace start-up of downstream steel plants is still high, the demand of steel industry has improved recently, the market mentality is optimistic, the demand for coke is still good, and the profit situation is good.

 

Summary of domestic port coke market price (unit: yuan / ton)

 

Port varieties

Sunshine September 14, September 18

Quasi primary trade secondary trade quasi primary trade secondary trade

2050 1950 2050 1950

Tianjin

Quasi first level trade first level trade first level trade first level

2000 2100 2000 2100

 

In recent years, the coke inventory in the port has decreased slightly, the enthusiasm of the port is high, and the mentality of traders is strong. At present, the main spot exchange delivery price of quasi grade I metallurgical coke in port is 1920-1950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream transaction price is 1920-1930 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of aftermarket, the Business Association believes that the recent coking enterprises have a high enthusiasm for shipping, and the inventory of downstream steel mills is low. Some steel mills are forced to accept the third round of increase under the pressure of inventory. However, most of the steel mills mainly purchase on demand, and the demand for coke is still good. The coking enterprises have the intention to increase, but the downstream steel mills mainly wait and see. It is expected that the coke market will strengthen in the future.

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1、 Price trend

 

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of calcium carbide method SG5), the average price of domestic mainstream PVC in September 16 was 6587.5 yuan / ton, up 0.11% compared with the previous day, 0.34% higher than that at the beginning of the month, 2.37% on a month on month basis, and 1.46% lower than the same period last year.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

On Wednesday, the market stopped falling and rose slightly, and the PVC market price rose again. Now it has entered the traditional peak season of gold, silver and ten, but the demand has not met the expectation. Last week, the PVC market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, and the weak market continued to the beginning of this week. On the 16th, the spot market of PVC was steadily rising. Taking Tangshan Sanyou as an example, it increased slightly by 50 yuan. Recently, due to the continuous decline of the futures market, the supply of imported goods to supplement the market, the accumulation of social stocks, and the demand failed to meet expectations, the rise of PVC in peak season was hindered, and the manufacturer’s quotation was slightly loose, but the overall situation remained stable and wait-and-see. In September, some enterprises entered the autumn overhaul, and the output decreased. Although the social inventory was accumulated, it was lower than that of last year, and the supply was slightly loose. Downstream enterprises still maintained the rigid demand procurement and replenished on the low price. The operating rate was increased compared with that before. The superimposed foreign demand is gradually recovering, and the demand in peak season is steadily increasing. And raw calcium carbide support is OK, so PVC continued to fall is not easy, short-term callback should not be too pessimistic. On the whole, the current demand is not up to expectations, the market trend is more and more ups and downs, but the contradiction between supply and demand is not big, is gradually improving, PVC market inflection point can still be expected.

 

In terms of spot goods, domestic pvc5 type tourmaline’s mainstream quotation range is around 6300-6700 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream of pvc5 type calcium carbide in East China is 6550-6600 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 6450-6550 yuan / ton. The price is increased by 6230-6330 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 6550-6650 yuan / ton in Hangzhou, and 6560-6650 yuan / ton in Changzhou, The main price of PVC ordinary calcium carbide in Guangzhou is 6650-6750 yuan / ton, slightly adjusted. The price consolidation in various places is the main factor, with little fluctuation.

 

In terms of futures, the volatility was strong. The opening price of v2101 contract on Wednesday was 6565, the highest price was 6605, the lowest price was 6540, and the closing price was 6585, up 30%, or 0.46%. The turnover was 126000, with a decrease of 3000. The position was 190000 hands, reduced by 4034 hands.

 

Regional variety and technology September 16

Guangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6650-6750 yuan / ton

Hebei PVC calcium carbide method 6450-6550 yuan / ton

Hangzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6550-6650 yuan / ton

Changzhou PVC calcium carbide method 6560-6650 yuan / ton

 

Upstream crude oil, on September 15, the US WTI crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of the main contract was $38.28/barrel, up $1.02. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, with the settlement price of main contracts at $40.53/barrel, up $0.92. Oil prices rose more than 2%, mainly due to the impact of the hurricane in the United States leading to partial supply disruption, but demand concerns remained lingering, limiting oil prices.

 

Ethylene, under the support of cost, the external market of ethylene increased slightly. The price of ethylene market in Asia is rising, while that in Europe and America is on the upward trend. The demand of ethylene market is good and the market continues to rise.

 

For calcium carbide, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China on September 16 was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on September 14. The price of raw materials is low, and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. Downstream PVC market rose slightly recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and calcium carbide supply is normal. In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2800 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts believe that the current decline in PVC futures, the supply of imported goods to supplement the market, the accumulation of social stocks, as well as the demand did not meet the expectations of many negative constraints, PVC peak season rise hindered. However, the cost side support is fair. As the enterprises enter the autumn overhaul and the PVC export gradually improves, the PVC market is not easy to fall deeply, and the main melody is the upward shock. The future market still needs to pay attention to the demand follow-up and the market trend.

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The phenol market has been adjusted in a narrow range, the atmosphere of on-site negotiation is flat, and the replenishment mood of downstream factories is not good. At present, the factory’s offer is 5300-5400 yuan / ton, and the East China’s offer is also around 5300 yuan / ton. There is no lack of price reduction in the intention of receiving and submitting offers at the terminal, and the current pressure on the cargo holders is great. It is understood that Shandong and the surrounding areas of Yanshan mostly offer 5350-5400 yuan / ton, while the South China region offers 5400 yuan / ton. There is still room to talk about the actual transaction. The business association predicts that the short-term phenol market will continue to maintain the status quo. Under the current high level of domestic factory operation, the market supply is relatively sufficient, while the downstream demand is insufficient. It is estimated that the reference offer of phenol Market is 5300 yuan / ton. At the end of the day, the quotations for acetone in the national markets were as follows:

 

Regional price rise and fall

 

5300 – 50 in East China

 

5400 – 50 in Shandong

 

Area around Yanshan

 

South China 5350 – 50

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